Drier, Sunnier Thursday Before Storms Friday And Saturday

It was a cold start Tuesday morning up in International Falls with a morning low of 8F, setting a new record for the day (the previous being 15F n 1947). April 19th is now the latest that International Falls has gotten down to 8F or below in their history (stretching back to 1874). The previous latest was on April 17, 1983, when the low also dipped to 8F.

As we look elsewhere across the upper Midwest, Grand Forks also set a record low Tuesday morning as it dipped to 4F, which is the latest the temperature has ever dipped to 4F or below in Grand Forks (the previous was April 12, 1881, with a low of 1F that day). While not shown on this map, areas like Sioux City (19F) and Des Moines (21F) also set record lows.

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After rain moved through the region on Wednesday, sunnier skies will return as we head into Thursday with warmer temperatures in place as well! Morning temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 30s with highs in the mid-50s expected. West to west-northwest winds of 5-15 mph are expected.

More clouds than sun will be possible Thursday across northern Minnesota, with more sun than clouds as you head southward. Temperatures will range from the 40s up north (up to 15F degrees below average) to around 60F in far southern Minnesota (right around average).

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Forecast loop off the American model every three hours from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Sunday.

With the first round of storms Friday into Friday night, some of them across central and southern Minnesota could be strong. A Slight Risk (threat level 2 of 5) is in place across far southwestern Minnesota, with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) stretching north of Fergus Falls, St. Cloud, and the Twin Cities. Large hail would be the greatest risk from strong storms, followed by damaging winds.

We will also be watching the potential of strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, with a Slight Risk of severe weather across far southern Minnesota. This is a day 4 severe weather product from the Storm Prediction Center, which only shows Slight and Enhanced Risk areas. Once we get this into the day 1-3 products, I would expect more of southern Minnesota to be under at least a Marginal Risk of severe weather.

The heaviest precipitation Friday into the weekend is expected to fall across northern Minnesota, where 1-2.5" of liquid could fall. Closer to the Twin Cities, 0.5-1" of rain is possible.

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The warmest it has been in the Twin Cities so far this year was 65F a MONTH ago on March 21st - but we could finally climb higher than that as we head into Saturday. First, we'll be in the 50s the next couple of days before temperatures start to slowly climb through the overnight hours Friday night. That'll prime temperatures along with a warm front to climb into the 70s Saturday afternoon. The last time the Twin Cities saw a high in the 70s was back on October 19th (74F). It's going to be a one-day warm-up above average, however, as temperatures cool back into the 40s and 50s for the second half of the weekend and into next week. Models show the potential of another warm-up, however, toward the second half of next week.

First 70s of 2022 On The Way Saturday
By Paul Douglas

It's like swimming upstream or defying the laws of gravity, but don't read too much into our persistently-chilly spring. The Twin Cities National Weather Service says we are on track for the second-coldest April in 60 years; 9th coldest since 1872. But weather trends are rarely static.

On my WCCO Radio show Tuesday, Dr. Mark Seeley said he could find no strong correlation between chilly Aprils and cool, wet summers; examining weather records since the 1870s. NOAA's models almost uniformly predict a hotter than average summer for the USA, including Minnesota. Like a mutual fund: past performance does not necessarily predict future results.

A beautiful, blue-sky Thursday gives way to warm frontal showers Friday. Set aside time to enjoy a very nice Saturday afternoon, with sunshine and what should be our first 70s of the year. It's time.

We cool off Sunday with more wind, but 40s early next week mellow into 60s in a week. Baby steps. The western Dakotas may pick up 1-2 feet of snow this weekend. Big ouch.

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Blue sky, pleasant. Wake up 37. High 56. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with PM showers. Wake up 44. High 58. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SE 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY: Lukewarm with a T-storm risk. Wake up 55. High 74. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 20-35 mph.

SUNDAY: Gusty with lingering clouds. Wake up 43. High 50. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 15-35 mph.

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun, cool. Wake up 28. High 47. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and pleasant. Wake up 31. High 52. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
April 21st

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 47 minutes, and 40 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 54 seconds

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This Day in Weather History
April 21st

1910: A snowstorm hits northeastern Minnesota. Duluth picks up 6.5 inches.

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On Thursday, we will be tracking two systems tracking east across the lower 48. The first, in association with an area of low pressure in Canada, will bring showers and storms from the central Plains into New England. The second is a system moving across the Rockies into the Plains by Friday morning with rain and snow out west, moving into the central U.S. by Friday morning along with some icing in North Dakota.

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Trees on the move: How some MN species shift northeast over time

More from KARE-11: "Research shows over more than a century some common species of trees in Minnesota have slowly shifted northeast. While individual trees are not on the move, of course, the population center of an entire species can (and has) slowly shifted, according to research conducted by Nick Danz for his dissertation. "We basically just compared 150 years of change in trees using the computer," said Danz, who was a student at the University of Minnesota at the time and is now the Dean of Academic Affairs and Graduate Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Superior."

Biotech firm announces results from first US trial of genetically modified mosquitoes

More from Nature: "Researchers have completed the first open-air study of genetically engineered mosquitoes in the United States. The results, according to the biotechnology firm running the experiment, are positive. But larger tests are still needed to determine whether the insects can achieve the ultimate goal of suppressing a wild population of potentially virus-carrying mosquitoes. The experiment has been underway since April 2021 in the Florida Keys, a chain of tropical islands near the southern tip of Florida. Oxitec, which developed the insects, released nearly five million engineered Aedes aegypti mosquitoes over the course of seven months, and has now almost completed monitoring the release sites. Based in Abingdon, UK, the firm reported the first results from the experiment during a webinar on 6 April, although it has not yet published the data."

More from The Energy Mix: "Thousands of Canada's most vulnerable citizens each year risk suffering and death by extreme heat over the next few decades without collective action to protect them, says a new report from the University of Waterloo's Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation. The research identifies small towns and cities in southern B.C.—especially the Okanagan—the southern half of the prairie provinces, and the vast metropolitan areas that run from Windsor to Montreal as "red zones" that will be hardest hit by extreme heat events, with more than 17 million city dwellers at risk. "Canadian alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear in relation to extreme heat," states the report. "While flood and fire may be Canada's most costly natural disasters, extreme heat is the 'silent killer'.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser