“Paul, stop with the scientific excuses, handwaving and dart-throwing. What do you think will REALLY happen this winter?” Colder with some snow. It’s the truth and yet you don’t feel satisfied with my response? “I’m waiting.” Weak La Niña cooling phase of the Pacific, pretty sure it will be colder than recent winters. “And?” I’m not yet convinced it’s going to be a bitter polar vortex winter similar to 2013-14. “And?” Pretty sure we’ll see more than the 29 inches that fell the last two winters. Closer to average, which is 51.2 inches. “Can you be specific?” No.
In early June NOAA and countless forecasters predicted an above-average hurricane season for 2025. Yet for the first time since 2015 not a single hurricane made landfall on the USA as of mid-October. Some things are just unknowable.
Sunshine lingers Saturday with a few Sunday showers; heaviest rains over western Minnesota. Looking ahead I see mostly 50s the last 10 days of October as emboldened cold fronts lunge south with greater intensity. No snow. Give it a few weeks.
