“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” British statistician George E. P. Box got that right back in 1976. Weather models are guides, not gospel. Meteorologists often use a blend of different models, based on experience (and being wrong a lot). We all have our own winter storm recipe for evaluating snowfall potential. And yes, as a profession we overpredict snow. One of our worst fears (second to missing a tornado) is predicting flurries, only to wake up to a foot of flurries.
After a record-tying 55 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Sunday, a reality check will set in this week. Showery rains are likely today into Tuesday. Swirling winds on the backside of a slow-moving storm pushing across Wisconsin will spark a streak of plowable snow up north, maybe 4 to 8 inches from Detroit Lakes to Brainerd and Duluth. Closer to a sloppy inch at MSP on Tuesday night.
Flurries taper Wednesday with a dry Thanksgiving. Another sloppy southern storm arrives with more snow next weekend.
Our weather honeymoon is over. We’ve been coddled long enough. It’s time for winter.
