“Paul, what is the hardest weather phenomenon to predict in advance?” Easy. Exactly when and where a tornado will touch down. Good luck with that. A close second: With random summertime thunderstorms, what part of which county will experience severe flash flooding?
NOAA has a model that predicts convection (thunderstorms) out to 18 hours, and it’s pretty close, but no model does a good job pinpointing extreme rainfall. Thunderstorms can redevelop multiple times along a stalled east-west frontal boundary, resulting in ridiculous amounts of rain. I saw Doppler estimates of 10 inches of rain from Saturday night’s storms west of Lamberton, in southwest Minnesota. Crazy.
That’s quite enough rain, thank you. Early thunder gives way to slow clearing Monday with generally dry weather Tuesday into Thursday. Highs in the low 80s won’t feel too bad out at the Minnesota State Fair. A shower is possible Friday, followed by a faint whiff of fall this weekend; highs in the 70s with low humidity.
Minnesota usually dries out in August. Not this year.
