“Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” That quote is variously attributed to Yankees catcher Yogi Berra, Danish physicist Niels Bohr, Mark Twain and others. Whoever it was sure got it right. And not all weather predictions are created equal. Some have a much higher “confidence level” than others. A 15-day weather forecast for a specific location? Very low confidence. A winter storm warning for Ramsey County? High confidence.
NOAA’s late spring prediction of an above-average hurricane season is a bust. It’s the quietest year in the Atlantic since 1994.
Keep this in mind when “winter outlooks” are issued. Only a very strong El Niño (warm phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) has a strong correlation with milder winters for Minnesota. Everything else is low-confidence hand-waving.
A 90-degree high in the Twin Cities on Tuesday was an acquired taste — a far cry from frost up north in early September. Big weather swings. A stalled upper-level storm may squeeze out 1-2 inches of rain from Wednesday into next Tuesday. Have an indoor Plan B this weekend. That is a moderate- to high-confidence-level forecast.
