Confidence is a castle made of sand; doubt is the incoming tide. Not all weather forecasts are created equal. Confidence levels drop off over time. A 10-day snowfall forecast is a joke. A 24-hour prediction of “how many inches” can be tough enough.
All that said, I have low confidence that we will see significant snow this week. Friday’s alleged storm looks less impressive with each new model run.
Moderate confidence that a predicted El Niño warm phase of the Pacific will materialize and keep 2026 warmer than average into fall, maybe winter.
High confidence that the coldest weather of winter is behind us now. There will be more cold fronts, but not as cold as they were in January.
Temperatures in the 50s and even a few 60s in mid-February? April is jealous. We will cool off this week (40s then 30s), and I wouldn’t rule out a couple of subzero lows around March 1. No sustained polar weather though — the pattern has flipped.
Another shot at 50 Monday, a little rain Tuesday, with three minutes of additional daylight every day. That’s very high confidence.
