“Paul, is this going to be a polar vortex winter?” The polar vortex is a permanent fixture, a whirlpool of bitter, counterclockwise-rotating air over the North Pole, swept along by jet stream winds aloft.
It is disruptions in this polar vortex that can leave us shivering and shoveling. A tight, compact vortex keeps the coldest air bottled up well to our north. But when it weakens or “ruptures,” bitter air can pour southward. This often happens one to three weeks after SSW or “sudden stratospheric warming” 18 to 20 miles above the ground. “So what Paul?” Some of our models are hinting at SSW by late November. A chunk of December may be unusually numbing, but in truth that’s still a low-confidence prediction. It would make sense that we’d pay a price for another unusually mild autumn.
60s Friday may leave you in a dreamlike trance. Saturday showers usher in a reality check next week with 30s and 40s. I see a growing chance of slush closer to Thanksgiving.
Air traffic controllers are so back! Mother Nature: Hold my beer.
