Ever wonder what motivates various pundits, strategists and fund managers to spout off about whatever it is they are yammering on about?
Step back and examine all of the various words spilled on markets. Scratch a little beneath the surface, and you quickly realize that not all participants are in a relentless search for the truth.
A few years ago, I noted that good investors have to wear many hats: One part historian, one part mathematician, one part psychiatrist, one part accountant and one part trial lawyer.
When it comes to market commentary, that last one can be especially helpful. Putting a witness's motivations into broader context can often shed some light on their position. Why did they say that? What incentives might they have? What are they subconsciously rationalizing?
As I have noted before:
Good litigators are always skeptical, but not negative. Is that witness telling the truth? What is motivating him? Is the opposing counsel's argument logical? Being able to answer these questions makes for a good lawyer — and a good investor. When it comes to investing, everyone is trying to separate you from your money. Good investing requires good judgment. Being able to recognize valuable intel vs. the usual blather is a huge advantage.
So let's play a game of cross-examining attorney.
Before I start dissecting and attacking other peoples' motivations, let's consider two of my biases. First, I publish on Bloomberg daily — it's a sweet gig, so I want to keep it. That means I want to write insightful things that get read on the Bloomberg terminal and generate clicks on the website. This creates an incentive for me to write things that are both clever and a little controversial. If they are a little different from the usual fare, that probably will garner more reads, too. Additionally, I am a partner in a wealth-management firm, where I oversees an asset-allocation model. That motivates me to want to look smart and rational and trustworthy in order to attract more assets. Where I sit probably accounts for my skepticism of high fees and commission-driven investing.