Democrats can't bank on women's votes

BOULDER, Colo. – The war for women is raging in campaigns across the country in these last days before Tuesday's midterm elections, and though Democrats have comfortable leads among female voters in some key races, the margins aren't as comfortable as they'd like or need.

Hurting the party is a renewed concern about security, particularly among mothers who tend to see the Obama administration as fumbling recent crises — from the battle against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant to the fears of Ebola spreading in the U.S. There's also some backlash from Republicans and independents who say Democrats seem obsessed with reproductive rights issues.

Democrats have spent much of the election year insisting Republicans would jeopardize abortion rights and access to contraception and make it harder to gain equal pay. While those messages have won Democrats healthy margins among women, it's not the overwhelming edge the party sought.

"Many women say, 'You're trivializing us,' " said Wayne Lesperance, director of the Center for Civil Engagement at New England College in New Hampshire.

Women could be critical constituencies in virtually all of the too-close-to-call contests next week where Democrats need double-digit leads among women to offset strong Republican advantages among men, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion.

Marist's latest polls for NBC show Democrats flirting with political danger.

In Iowa, Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democratic candidate for Senate, is up by only 5 percentage points among women. In Colorado, Sen. Mark Udall has an 11-point advantage, the same margin as Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas. In North Carolina, Sen. Kay Hagan leads among women by 10 points. Only Pryor's numbers are up from earlier polls.

Wooing women, particularly those who are unmarried, has been a crucial part of Democrats' strategy this year, and loyalists maintain they're going to do well with those constituencies next week.

"Unmarried women, who tend to pay attention later, are listening to the economic narrative," said Page Gardner, president of the Voter Participation Center.

Getting Democratic women to the polls, though, faces several challenges. Unmarried women are more prone to stay home on Election Day. They tend to be younger voters.

"They don't focus on politics. They're more worried about meals on the table," said Susan Carroll, a senior scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics in New Jersey.