COVID-19 surged in September in each of the past two years in Minnesota, but Thursday's weekly state update showed little change for better or worse so far this fall.
Minnesota averaged about 800 to 900 coronavirus infections per day in September, down from 1,300 to 1,400 per day this summer. The 449 COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota on Tuesday represented a slight increase from the average of 430 since August.
Health officials remain concerned that COVID-19 could surge again, just as it did last fall when a severe delta variant of the coronavirus emerged. At this point last year, COVID-19 hospitalizations had already risen above 800 in Minnesota. But for now, the pandemic is behaving like an endemic of low-level but persistent infections.
"We had these quite wild oscillations for a long while, and now we seem to be in a more steady period," said Dr. Frank Rhame, a virologist with Minneapolis-based Allina Health.
Predictive measures show little sign of change. Mayo Clinic's 14-day forecast shows only a modest decline in infection levels in Minnesota and no change nationally.
Viral levels in wastewater have increased slightly in the Twin Cities area and southeastern Minnesota as of Oct. 2 but not in the rest of the state, according to data published by the University of Minnesota.
Wastewater monitoring is an effective predictor of COVID-19 activity, because it isn't affected by changes in testing numbers. The state's COVID-19 case numbers only reflect tests at centers or clinics and not any at-home results that aren't reported publicly.
The U wastewater data for the metro area is based on results from 13 fringe communities such as Northfield and Cambridge. Viral levels found at the Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Plant in St. Paul are updated on Fridays; last week, the plant reported a 5% decline in viral load.