Cooler Temperatures On The Way

Saturday looks quite nice - and several degrees cooler vs. Friday - here in the metro. We'll see another mainly sunny day unfold across the region with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Besides the dryness across the region, I don't think there is too much complaining about the weather across the state Saturday! Mainly sunny skies can be expected to begin the weekend, with most areas climbing into the 70s and 80s for highs.

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The second half of the weekend - Father's Day - doesn't look as nice across the state, however. A system working through the region will spread shower and storm chances across the upper Midwest throughout the day. The good news is we need the rain. Unfortunately, it might not be the best day for any outdoor activities with your dad, including grilling out.

A few of the storms later Sunday could be strong to severe across southern Minnesota, where a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) is in place. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

As we look at Father's Day climatology for the Twin Cities, the warmest we've ever been (going back to 1910) was 98F in 1988. The wettest was back in 1935 when 2.16" of rain occurred. The good news - no snow has ever occurred!

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Here's a look at those cooler highs across the state Monday - only reaching the 50s and 60s for most locations. There will be a few rain chances mainly across eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, primarily in the morning hours.

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It's been a very dry June so far across most of the state, with many climate locations running between 1-3" below average halfway through the month. Through the 17th it's been the 10th driest start to the month in the Twin Cities with only 0.40" of rain falling so far.

With very little rain recently and the hot weather in place, drought has continued to expand across the state. As of the latest Drought Monitor outlook issued Thursday morning, 55.7% of the state is now under Moderate Drought conditions (up from 46.2% last week), and 5.07% of the state is under Severe Drought (up from 1.81% last week).

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Are you ready for some cooler temperatures? I know I am - and my air conditioner is too! Temperatures will be a lot more pleasant as we head into Father's Day weekend. Today will be the better day of the weekend for outdoor activities as highs reach the 80s under mainly sunny skies. A stronger storm system will move through the upper Midwest during the second half of the weekend, leading to showers and thunderstorms for Father's Day with slightly cooler highs versus Saturday.

The good news is we could use the rain. Through Thursday, the Twin Cities airport has only picked up 0.40" so far this month, the tenth driest start to June. The National Weather Service in La Crosse noted back on Tuesday that the 7 AM river level of the Mississippi River at La Crosse was the lowest 7 AM reading in June since 1992.

Meanwhile, portions of the Gulf Coast are over a foot above average in the rain department so far this year and are getting battered with at least 4-10" of tropical rains once again this weekend.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Rounds of showers and t-storms. Wake up 63. High 78. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind SW 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Cool and cloudy with breezy conditions. Wake up 54. High 68. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Filtered sunshine. Wake up 51. High 73. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warmer with mainly sunny skies. Wake up 58. High 81. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy skies. Late day storms. Wake up 62. High 87. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind S 5-15 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 19th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 36 minutes and 46 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~0 minutes and 8 seconds

*When Do We Have The Most Daylight? June 20th-21st (15 hours, 36 minutes, and 50 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 5:30 AM?: June 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Latest Sunset Of The Year?: June 19th-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

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2014: Heavy rain leads to widespread flooding in the Twin Cities metro area. Minnehaha Creek has its record crest of 17.64 feet on this date. Eden Prairie records 5.47 inches of rain, while MSP airport receives 4.13 inches, the highest daily total in 5 years.

1955: Hailstones the size of hen's eggs fall in Roseau County.

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The big story we'll be keeping an eye on Saturday is the tropical system moving through portions of the Deep South as we go through the day, bringing heavy tropical rain bands, gusty winds, and maybe a few tornadoes. Elsewhere, some storms will be possible from the Northeast back to the Rockies. Excessive heat continues in the Southwest.

The heaviest rain through Sunday evening will fall across the northern Gulf Coast and the Southeast due to our tropical system moving through the region with heavy rain. Some areas could see at least 3-8" of rain, with isolated 12" amounts. Another area of heavy rain will fall Friday Night across the Ohio River Valley with the potential of 2-4" for some locations.

Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Friday morning, June 18th, 2021

Late Morning Look At Three. While Three is slowly becoming better organized, it does not have enough characteristics for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to declare it officially a tropical depression, so Three remains with the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" designation for now. As of the 10 AM CT update from the NHC, Three was located about 220 miles south of Morgan City, LA, or 340 miles south-southwest of Mobile, AL, and moving north-northeast at 14 mph. Three had sustained winds of 35 mph.

Landfall Expected Tonight. This system still has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm (named Claudette) before it makes landfall along the northern Gulf Coast tonight, but additional significant strengthening is not expected. This system will continue to the north-northeast for the next day or two before turning more northeastward into the weekend. This system will move slowly across the Southeastern United States through the weekend into early next week, spreading heavy rain along its path.

Tropical Storm Warnings. Due to the potential of tropical storm conditions across portions of the northern Gulf Coast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from East of Morgan City (LA) to the Okaloosa/Walton County line (FL) including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

Main Threat: Heavy Rain. The greatest threat from this system will be bands of heavy tropical rains that begin today along the northern Gulf Coast and push farther inland across the Southeast as we head through the weekend. A widespread area of at least 3-8" of rain, with isolated 12" amounts, is expected through the weekend across the Southeast – particularly near the Gulf Coast.

Storm Surge Potential. The combination of storm surge and the tide will result in flooding for normally dry locations near the coast due to rising waters pushing inland. Summary of peak surge expected:

Tornado Threat. Tropical entities typically have the threat of waterspouts and tornadoes, and this one won't be different. We are watching a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) across the northern Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast Friday through Sunday due to this tornado threat.

Excessive Heat Continues. We continue to track record-breaking heat out in the western United States over the next several days, with areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento under Excessive Heat Warnings. Numerous record highs will continue to fall daily through at least the first half of the weekend.

Heat Safety. Remember to practice heat safety in these areas over the next several days as over the past 30 years heat has been the leading cause of weather fatalities. You can find more information on heat safety from NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

NASA: Earth Is Absorbing an 'Unprecedented' Amount of Heat

More from Earther: "Ominous new research shows that the Earth is taking in a shocking amount of heat. In the past 15 years, the amount of incoming solar radiation trapped on the surface and in the oceans has doubled. The findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters by scientists at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are a deafening klaxon that the planet is rapidly shifting outside the boundaries that have allowed civilization to thrive."

AI Could Spot Wildfires Faster Than Humans

More from Scientific American: "During his eight years as community alert and warning manager in Sonoma County, California, Sam Wallis has repeatedly watched wildfires roar through the cities and small towns he protects. Often with little warning, fires have razed homes and charred the area's picturesque hillsides, valleys and vineyards just north of San Francisco. Wallis had to evacuate his own home last year. And in 2017 his property was strewn with wind-blown debris from the deadly, 37,000-acre Tubbs Fire, one of the most destructive in California's history. "The Tubbs Fire was the seminal event, an absolutely massive and fast-moving fire that we had no way of tracking," Wallis says. Once that blaze was squelched, several local agencies began installing a system of tower-mounted cameras, called ALERTWildfire, to look for smoke and flames so that fires could be attacked before raging out of control. Sonoma County's 21 high-powered devices scan and photograph fire-prone areas. Every 10 seconds they send images that help confirm—and sometimes discover—flare-ups. Dispatchers in the county's fire emergency center try to keep tabs on these incoming images, displayed on a wall of video monitors, and alert emergency crews if they see any suspicious smoke. They also take 911 calls from citizens."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser