Cooler fronts, milder winters and 'Medicanes'

Today is 25 degrees cooler with some sun by afternoon. Comfortable air will be with us into next week as we enjoy highs in the 60s and 70s — nights cool enough for a sweatshirt or light jacket. It is September after all, we should be cooling off. Check the blog for more details. —Todd Nelson

September 6, 2023 at 2:30AM

MUCH Cooler Weather Ahead

Temps on Wednesday will be MUCH cooler than it was over the last several days. In fact, it'll be almost 25F to 30F cooler than it was this weekend. The Twin Cities might not even make it to 70F, while some folks in the Arrowhead may have a hard time making it into the 60s. There may be a few lingering showers or storms, but there will be a gradual drying and clearing trend throughout the day.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

The hottest days of 2023 (so far) were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. Uffda! Through Tuesday, September 5th, there have been (32) 90F days this year and is the 6th most number of 90F days in any year and the most since 1988.

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

90 Day Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with nearly 10% of the state now in an Extreme Drought. Severe Drought is now almost 40% and includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 65% of the state was considered just abnormally dry.

MN Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, September 6th will be MUCH cooler than it was over the last several days with highs only warming into the upper 60s, which will be nearly 25F to 30F cooler. There could be a few lingering showers and storms during the early part of the day with gradual drying and clearing throughout the day. The hourly dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis shows much more comfortable dewpoints with readings in the upper 50s

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Wednesday will be quite a bit cooler with readings in the 60s. There could be a few lingering showers or storms in the morning, but there will be a gradual drying trend through the day. Winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 25mph to 30mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be more seasonable with readings warming into the upper 60s and 70s over the next several days. It may get a little warmer on Saturday with readings close to 80F once again.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sticky Dewpoints into Early September

Dewpoint readings will be much more comfortable over the next several days with readings in the 50s.

5 Day Max Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature forecast for Minneapolis will be quite a bit nicer over the next several days and more seasonable for early September. We'll see a few lingering showers early Wednesday, but much of the day will be dry. The next several days into mid September look mostly dry as well.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Comfortable Temps Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite a bit nicer with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. It'll be a little cooler on Wednesday with highs having a hard time reaching 70. We may sneak up close to 80F on Saturday, but will cool back into the lower 70s into next week.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Active Weather in the Atlantic

As of Monday, the National Hurricane Center was Tropical Storm Lee and another potential wave drifting off of the western tip of Africa.

7 Day Atlantic Forecast (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Lee in the Atlantic

According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, Lee will become a hurricane by Thursday and possibly a major hurricane by Friday as it slides north of the Leeward Islands this weekend. Stay tuned...

Tracking Lee (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Basin Climatology

Our recent uptick in the Atlantic tropical activity coincides with climatology, which suggests that things ramp up pretty quickly during the 2nd half of August and into September. This is when the sea surface temperatures are typically the warmest in the Atlantic Basin. Note that the actual peak of the season is on September 10th, which is less than 3 weeks away. With that being said, the next several weeks could be pretty active in the Tropics.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest looks a little quieter through the 2nd half of the week. There could be a few isolated showers late in the weekend, but it doesn't look like much. However, note Lee in Atlantic which could be a major hurricane by the weekend north of the Caribbean.

National Weather Outlook Through This Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the Western US as we approach mid month. Cooler than average temps will be in place across the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Central US will be a little more active as we head through the middle part of September.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cooler Fronts, Milder Winters and Medicanes
By Paul Douglas

The mercury hit 90F in the metro yesterday, the 32nd day at or above 90F in 2023. That's the most 90-degree days since 1988; tied for the 6th most since 1872. And no, I don't remember 1872. Grateful that Minnesotans got by without smartphones, HVAC and the internet.

Today is 25 degrees cooler with some sun by afternoon. Comfortable air will be with us into next week as we enjoy highs in the 60s and 70s - nights cool enough for a sweatshirt or light jacket. It is September after all, we should be cooling off.

A Super El Nino is brewing, an added jolt of warmth from the Pacific should keep us warmer than average into spring of 2024.

Winter hasn't been canceled. It will snow and cold fronts will gang up on Minnesota. But overall I'm betting on a milder, tamer winter with less snow and more ice and rain than usual.

Meanwhile a stalled "medicane", the rough equivalent of a tropical storm in the Mediterranean, is dropping catastrophic amounts of rain on Greece, with 30-50+" totals expected. The New Abnormal.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Wet start, then clearing. Winds: NW 15-25. High 66.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: N 5-15. Low: 56.

THURSDAY: Cool, more clouds than sun. Winds: N 10-15. High 71.

FRIDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Sunnier, drier day of the weekend. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.

SUNDAY: Showers, a few claps of thunder. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High: 76.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and drier. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 59. High: 69.

TUESDAY: Peeks of sun, feels like autumn. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 55. High: 65.

This Day in Weather History

September 6th

1977: An early morning thunderstorm drops 2 inch hail in McLeod County.

1922: A heat wave over Minnesota brings highs over 100 to southwest Minnesota. One of the hot spots is New Ulm with 105.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 6th

Average High: 77F (Record: 98F set in 1922)

Average Low: 58F (Record: 35F set in 1885)

Record Rainfall: 1.61" set in 1881

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For September 6th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 6th

Sunrise: 6:41am

Sunset: 7:41pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 00 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 00 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 37 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 6th at Midnight

0.4 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For September 6th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday will still be well above average for much of the nation with widespread likely from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Northeast and also across the Southern US.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be unsettled along and east of the Mississippi River Valley, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday shows scattered storms pushing east along a cool front that will be responsible for a little bit of a cool down for some in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.

Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows a few pockets of heavy rain mainly east of the Rockies. Some of the heaviest rain will be from the Great Lakes and places north and east. meanwhile, the Western US will remain mostly dry.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Not burning, drowning: why outdoor festivals like Burning Man are reeling from extreme weather"

"Climate activists lined the road to this year's Burning Man festival in Nevada to call out the "privileged mindset" of the Silicon Valley types who flock there – and the waste involved in creating a temporary city in the desert. Only a couple of days later, disaster struck. Unprecedented rain – 20 mm in 24 hours – turned the desert into mud, trapping the 70,000 festival goers. As you might expect, the internet went wild with schadenfreude. But there's a deeper issue here. This is not the first – and won't be the last – outdoor festival upended by unprecedented weather. It was only a month ago when the World Scout Jamboree in South Korea was crippled by intense heat and typhoons, forcing its abandonment. Last year's Splendour in the Grass festival in northern New South Wales turned into a mudpit after unprecedented rains. Outdoor festivals are a summer rite of passage for many. Warm weather makes them possible. But summer's when we often see the wildest weather too. As climate change loads the dice, we'll see more festival disruptions, more often."

"Sinking Permafrost Sinks Pipelines In Russia And Canada"

"Google's latest launch suggests Maps is becoming more than a navigation tool, as the company announces three new public APIs covering solar, air quality, and pollen data and predictions to address the world's new climate reality. Now, in addition to the company's Maps, Routes, and Places APIs, a new "Environment" category will be joining the tech giant's geographical tools, supplementing the estimated 50 million updates made to Maps each day in a combination of machine (read: AI) and environmental learning, according to Google. Access to this data can help developers, businesses, and other institutions build more environmentally informed tools and services, Google explains. Air quality and pollen predictions might be used to help the public avoid health hazards, service those with respiratory illnesses or allergies, or even facilitate low-pollution activities. Google envisions the solar API in service of both businesses and consumers, creating more environmentally friendly buildings, accelerating rooftop solar installation, and mitigating carbon emissions, the company wrote in its announcement."

"15 unexpected effects of climate change"

"Extreme weather events and mass extinctions are some of the most serious effects of climate change, but a warming world is having many other— and less obvious — effects on our planet. From bumpier plane rides to sex-changing lizards, here are 15 of the most unexpected effects of a warming world. Home runs in Major League Baseball seem to be increasing as temperatures rise. In a study published April 7 in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, researchers said that as warmer air is less dense, baseballs fly farther after being batted away. They found that, between 2010 and 2019, more than 500 homers — accounting for 1% of home runs — could be put down to unusually hot days as a result of global warming. They also predicted home runs could be 10% more common by 2100, compared with averages between 2010 and 2019. Playing more games at night when temperatures are milder could help counter the impact on the sport, the scientists suggested."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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