Complaining About The Weather Is A Hobby

Here comes a Minnesota warm front: 20s over the weekend with low 30s by Monday. A big snow and ice storm should track (just) south of Minnesota next week. Sorry snow lovers. Looking ahead I see fewer subzero nights and slow warming into early February. Spring is MIA, but are the coldest nights of winter behind us now? Probably. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

January 27, 2022 at 3:30AM
Cold January Morning (@TNelsonWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Mostly Quiet Next Several Days

Here's the weather outlook through the weekend, which shows mostly quiet weather close to home. The best chance of snow will be found across the far northeastern part of the state and will be very light.

Weather Outlook From AM Thursday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

The latest snow depth reports show a fairly decent base across the region. The Metro was reporting around 9" as of Tuesday, but has you head north, there are some double digit reports. According to the MN DNR Snowmobile and cross-country ski trails are generally reported to be in good to very good conditions across the northern half of the state. Trails in the southern half of the state are reported to poor condition with little to now snow on the ground there.

Snow Depth as of Tuesday, January 25th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Seasonal Snowfall So Far

Here's a look at how much snow we've seen so far this season. Note the Twin Cities has seen nearly 33", which is nearly +5.0" above average. Grand Forks, ND has seen nearly 40" of snow, which is more than 1ft above average! Heading south into South Dakota, many locations there are below average and more than 1ft below average in Pierre and Huron. Folks in southern Wisconsin are also nearly 1ft below average, including Madison and Milwaukee.

Snowfall So Far This Season (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Cold Thursday & Friday, Then Warmer This Weekend

Here's the 850mb temp anomaly through the end of the week and weekend ahead. The end of the week will be quite chilly with below average temps once again. However, as we head into the weekend, warmer temps will move back in.

850mb Temp Anomaly AM Thursday to AM Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Thursday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Thursday shows falling temps as we head through the under partly cloudy skies. NNW winds will be breezy and will make it feel more like the single digits through much of the day.

Minneapolis Weather Outlook For Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Thursday show temps starting in the low/mid 20s with falling temps through the day. Actual air temps will be in the lower teens by sunset. NNW winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 20mph to 25mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Thursday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Thursday will be quite cold through much of the day. In fact, it'll feel more like the single digits with sub-zero feels like temps by the early evening.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Thursday

High temps across the region on Thursday will be running close to average across the southern half of the state. However, high temps will occur early in the day and will fall to below average temps through the afternoon.

Weather Outlook For Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows temps running closer to average on Thursday, but again temps will fall through the day, so it will feel quite a bit colder than average in the afternoon. Highs on Friday will be nearly -15F below average with near average temps again this weekend.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

After a chilly end of week, temp get back to and slightly above average over the weekend and early next week. We're also keeping an eye on some snowfall potential around midweek. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temperatures will be colder through the late week time frame before a milder weekend and early next week time frame. The first few days of February could be cold once again with highs running well below average.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows below average temps across much of the Central and Southern US. It could be a cold start to February for many.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather could be found along the international border, the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, drier weather will settled back in across the Western US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Complaining About The Weather Is A Hobby
By Paul Douglas

"Almost nothing is more tedious than complaining about the weather" wrote author Meghan Daum. But if the weather didn't change every now and then what would we talk about? At a time when we agree on very little, we can (usually) agree on the current state of the atmosphere.

Yes, we've had a cold stretch, but by my count 14 nights below zero at MSP, and no subzero highs, to date. Average for the winter in the metro is 23 subzero nights. February 2021 brought a magical 12 consecutive nights below zero and 4 subzero "highs". Ouch.

Climate Central analysis shows 5 fewer colder-than-average winter days at MSP since 1970. It still gets cold. Just not as cold as it did 50 years ago.

Here comes a Minnesota warm front: 20s over the weekend with low 30s by Monday. A big snow and ice storm should track (just) south of Minnesota next week. Sorry snow lovers.

Looking ahead I see fewer subzero nights and slow warming into early February. Spring is MIA, but are the coldest nights of winter behind us now? Probably.

Extended Forecast

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, brisk. Winds: NW 10-20 High: 23.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: NW 5-10. Low: -7.

FRIDAY: Blue sky. This is getting old. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 10.

SATURDAY: Some sun. "Average" feels good. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 8. High: 26.

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 14. High: 22.

MONDAY: Plenty of sunshine, milder. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 18 High: 32.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 24. High: 27.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds linger, chilly again. Winds: NW 10-20 Wake-up: 0. High: 6.

This Day in Weather History

January 27th

2006: A record high temperature of 50 degrees is set at the Eau Claire Regional Airport.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

January 27th

Average High: 24F (Record: 47F set in 1934)

Average Low: 8F (Record: -23F set in 1950)

Record Rainfall: 0.49" set in 2013

Record Snowfall: 63.8" set in 19716

Twin Cities Almanac For January 27th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

January 27th

Sunrise: 7:37am

Sunset: 5:14pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 23 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 50 minutes

Moon Phase for January 27th at Midnight

1.7 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For January 27th at Midnight (Studio/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Thursday

The weather outlook on Thursday shows below average temps along the East Coast and the Central US. Meanwhile, folks in California will be above average with windy weather developing in Southern California.

National Weather Outlook For Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook as we head into the weekend shows a large storm system developing along the East Coast. This storm system will be responsible for heavy snow for some in the Northeast with very strong winds that could gust close to hurricane force for some. Meanwhile, many locations in the Western US will stay dry through the weekend.

Weather Outlook Through Friday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley and also along the East Coast. There will also be areas of heavy precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Potential

Here's the extended snowfall potential as we head into the early part of February. Note the heavy snow chance this weekend along the coast in the Northeast. However, there could be another decent snow event that develops in the Central US by the middle part of next week. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"LOOK: JAW-DROPPING IMAGE SHOWS THE WEBB TELESCOPE 1 MILLION MILES FROM EARTH"

"THE JAMES WEBB Space Telescope (JWST) has made it into position — and there are pictures to prove it. On Tuesday, the Virtual Telescope project released an image of the new telescope among the stars. The 300-second exposure, captured with the "Elena" telescope, shows the project around 1.4 million kilometers (869,919 miles) from Earth. JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE: WHAT TO KNOW The telescope features a 21-foot, four-inch-thick set of 18 mirrors coated in gold. This bounces light into an infrared sensor. Its ultra-wide perspective enables it to observe around a third of the sky at a given time. It's nearly three times bigger than the Hubble Space Telescope, which launched in 1990 and has provided some of the most dramatic images of space. NASA will use the new telescope to reveal more about the origins of the universe. It could also provide insights into far-flung exoplanets that could hold life. It's also expected to help researchers understand Sagittarius A*. Scientists have yet to image what they believe is a supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy."

"'It looked so real': ghostly 'iceberg' was a wonder of nature – just not an iceberg"

"Clear winter skies and the promise of a recent evening's beautiful sunset led photographer Simone Engels to a nearby park on Vancouver Island. But as she trained her lens on the pinkish hue of the landscape of the Pacific coast, she was shocked to see a large, iceberg-like shape on the horizon. "It was this huge, shiny, three-dimensional tubular structure," she said. "It looked so real." Engels, who previously studied geography, cycled through possible explanations, including that a large piece of ice had improbably drifted down from Alaska, miraculously passing through narrow straits and dodging archipelagos. But if an iceberg was in the area – especially one of that size – it would surely have made local news, she told herself. "I was trying to pin this together in my head, and I really couldn't come up with an explanation," she said. "It just looked so odd and I was nearly convinced that it really was an iceberg I was staring at." With no one else around to confirm the mysterious sighting, she snapped an image and for nearly half an hour, watched the hulking white shape on the horizon before it disappeared from sight."

"Climate change fueled 3rd costliest losses ever in 2021 — less than half of that property was insured"

"Led by the deadly and costly Hurricane Ida and massive flooding in Europe, the world racked up $329 billion in economic losses linked to severe weather last year, and only 38% of that bill was covered by insurance. Those results prompted consultants Aon AON, +1.36% to warn in a report Tuesday that the mounting cost from climate change-fueled disasters is only in the early stages unless more complete insurance assessment and risk-pricing catches up. That could cost businesses and their customers more, make homeownership less accessible, and change how investors view stocks SPX, 1.48% in those companies seen most vulnerable. Total economic losses tallied $343 billion, Aon said, $329 billion of which resulted from weather and climate-related events such as hurricanes, flooding, wildfires, tsunamis and drought. That left 2021 as the third costliest year on record after adjusting for inflation."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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