Snowy Saturday Ahead
"A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the southern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Saturday into Sunday morning. At least a few inches of snow is expected for much of the region. Higher amounts are more likely in southern Minnesota where an upgrade to Winter Storm Warning may be necessary."
"SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. Snow will spread into southwest Minnesota late Saturday morning and reach western Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon Saturday. The snow will end Saturday night. A widespread band of 3 to 6 inches of snow is expected to fall along and south of a line from Appleton, to St. Cloud, to the northern Twin Cities metro in Minnesota and from New Richmond to Bloomer in Wisconsin. Within this area, a band of 6-7 inches of snow will be possible from Redwood Falls, to Mankato and Red Wing. An upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning may be needed across this region if confidence in snowfall amounts this high occurring increases. Travel impacts are likely as roads become snow covered Saturday evening, slow down and allow for extra time to reach your destination."
Snowfall Potential This Weekend
Here's the snowfall potential from Saturday to AM Sunday. Temps will be cold enough for a light fluffy snow event throughout the day. Snowfall amounts of 3" to 6" will be possible in the Twin Cities Metro, while some isolated 6"+ tallies will be possible south of the Metro.
Weather Outlook AM Saturday to AM Monday
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to AM Monday. Snow will spread through the state of Minnesota through the day Saturday and end early Sunday morning. It will be a fairly quick system with the bulk of the snow falling in a 12 hour window from midday Saturday to midnight Saturday night in the Twin Cities.
Saturday Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
Here's the weather outlook for Saturday. Cold temps early Saturday morning will set the stage for what will be a powdery snow event across the region. High temps in the Metro may only warm to around 20F, which means that snow to water ratios with the event will be around 15:1 or 20:1. With that being said, once the snow starts, roads will become snow covered and slippery quite fast.
Saturday Meteograms for Minneapolis
Here's a look at the Meteograms for Saturday, which shows temps gradually warming to near 20F. Snow will begin around midday and pick up in intensity through the afternoon with the heaviest bands setting up south of the Twin Cities Metro. Roads should become snow covered and slippery pretty quickly with temperatures as cold as they'll be on Saturday. There won't be a ton of blowing snow, but southerly winds could gust up close 15mph at times during the afternoon.
Saturday Weather Outlook
Here's a look at weather conditions across the region on Saturday. Note that highs will still be running a bit below average along the MN/WI border. Meanwhile, folks in NW Minnesota will be running slightly above average for the end of the month.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
Here's the extended outlook over the next 5 to 7 days for Minneapolis. Note that temps through the weekend and early next week will be a little more like January with temps running a little below average. After Saturday's snow, it looks like the week ahead stays pretty quiet with the next best chance of precipitation arriving late next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook through the end of January shows a gradual warming trend over the next several days. It will be a bit chilly through the weekend and into next week, but we're getting indications for highs potentially back above freezing by the last weekend of January.
Minneapolis January Summary So Far
Here's a look at the January numbers so far and it certainly has been a mild start to the month. We're nearly +8.5F above average, which is the 7th warmest start to any January on record. Also note that MSP is currently sitting at its 10th warmest Meteorological Winter on record (December 1st - January 21st). We've also only had 3.4" of snow, which is nearly -5" below average for the month.
Snow Depth As of January 21st
As of January 21st, there was still 6" of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities with 8" in Duluth, 11" in International Falls and 14" in Marquette, MI. We'll add to those snow depth numbers with the snowfall expected this weekend.
National Snow Depth
As of January 22nd, 26.2% of the nation was covered by snow. At this time last year, nearly 40.1% of the nation was covered.
Snowfall So Far This January
Through the first half of January, there hasn't been much snowfall across the region. The heaviest has fallen in far southeastern MN and into southern Wisconsin. Through January 21st, the Twin Cities had only seen 3.4" of snow, which was nearly -5" below average for the month and the 16th least snowy January on record. These numbers will be padded a bit this weekend with the incoming snow. Stay tuned.
Snowfall So Far This Season
Here's a look at the snowfall so far this season, which shows some of the heaviest tallies from the Twin Cities to Duluth and toward the U.P. of Michigan. With that being said, there is a narrow corridor from the Twin Cities to Duluth that is carrying a small seasonal surplus, Meanwhile, much of the rest of the region is well below average seasonal snowfall with the greatest deficit near Marquette, MI, which is nearly 3ft. below average snowfall.
Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions have continued over the last few months with nearly 100% of the state considered to be in abnormally dry, while almost 24% is considered to be in a moderate drought. Through the first 3 weeks of the year, many locations are running below average precipitation.
8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there maybe an increase in precipitation chances across the Western US and Great Lakes Region from the end of January to the beginning of February.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures will return to the Central US at the end of January and into the beginning of February.
Cold Powdery Snow Means Icy PM Roads
By Paul Douglas
I'm happy it can still snow in Minnesota. Andon some level, relieved there's not a darned thing we can do about it. We have the illusion of control, but it's all a mirage. My day planner has been collecting dust for the last 10months. We are united by one-day-at-a-time.
Consider getting errands done this morning, because powdery snow arrives by midday, getting heavier into the evening hours.
When it's this cold it doesn't take much moisture to squeeze out fluffy snow - the kind of snow you might ski on at Vail or Deer Valley. Perfect snow, mind you.
Unless you're stuck on the roads this afternoon or early Sunday, in which case you'll face white-knuckle driving. With temperatures stuck in the teens, salt put down by MnDOT crews will be less effective. Translation: skating rink.
Big storms sail south of Minnesota next week, and there's little doubt we'll see another thaw by late January.
Cold smacks are likely in February, but no intense or prolonged polar air is anywhere in sight. Yet
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: PM Snow. 4" to 7" with icy roads. Winds: S 10-15. High: 21.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow tapers overnight. Winds: SSE 5-10. Low: 17.
SUNDAY: Early flakes give way to clearing. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 27.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Stiff breeze. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 22.
TUESDAY: Intervals of sun, chilly. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 8. High: 23.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of flurries. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 10. High: 24.
THURSDAY: Peeks of sun. Above average. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 16 High: 29.
FRIDAY: Some sun. Risk of a thaw. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 19. High: 34.
This Day in Weather History
January 23rd
1963: A record low of -31 is set at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
January 23rd
Average High: 24F (Record: 53F set in 1942)
Average Low: 7F (Record: -34F set in 1886)
Record Rainfall: 0.85" set in 1871
Record Snowfall: 5.7" set in 1949
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
January 23rd
Sunrise: 7:41am
Sunset: 5:09pm
Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 27 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 13 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 41 minutes
Moon Phase for January 23rd at Midnight
4.5 Days Before Full "Wolf" Moon
"JANUARY 28, 2021: WOLF MOON - Maybe go for a night run or howl in the New Year with the Wolf Moon, which will shine in the sky on January 28 at 1:16PM CT. This Moon is also called the Ice Moon, and the Moon after Yule."
What's in the Night Sky?
"Mercury, the solar system's innermost planet, isn't hard to see because it's faint, but because this world is so often lost in the sun's glare. At present, Mercury is reaching the outer edge of its orbit as seen from Earth, placing Mercury optimally high in the western evening sky. What's more, Mercury shines more brilliantly than most any star in the starry sky. At present, Mercury is nearly 5 times brighter than the nearby star Fomalhaut, a respectable 1st-magnitude star. Most likely, if you only see one starlike object near the sunset point on the horizon as dusk ebbs into darkness, it's Mercury. Look westward for Mercury, with either the unaided eye or binoculars, some 45 to 60 minutes after sunset."
National High Temps Saturday
Here's a look at weather conditions across the nation on Saturday. Note that quite a few more locations will be dealing with cooler than average temps with the exception of the Southern US.
National Forecast Map For Saturday
The weather map on Saturday looks quite a bit more active across the nation with showers and storms across the Southern US and rain/snow showers across the Central/Northern US. Also note that precipitation will be found in the Southwestern US.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather map as we head into the weekend, which looks more active as a storm system moves from the Western US into the Central US. Areas of rain and snow will be possible in many areas over the next few days.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation potential over the next 7 days shows heavier precipitation across the Western US, where heavy rains and flooding can't be ruled out along with heavy mountain snow. Meanwhile another batch of heavy precipitation will be possible from the Central US through the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Area.
7 Day Snowfall Potential
The extended snowfall forecast through the week ahead shows areas of heavy snow in the Western US and across parts of the Central/Eastern US.
Climate Stories
"Air pollution linked to increased mental health outpatient visits"
"More pollution in the air could be linked to higher rates of mental health service use, researchers at the Yale School of Public Health found in a new study. The findings, which were recently published in the journal Environmental Research, stem from nearly six years of outpatient visits data collected at two major hospitals in Nanjing, China—a heavily polluted major city in China. After comparing the numbers with the amount of particulate matter found in the air every day, researchers discovered that visits were generally higher when the air quality was particularly poor. More research is needed to fully understand why—and how—air quality impacts the rate at which mental health services are used. But according to YSPH Assistant Professor Sarah Lowe, Ph.D., who was the first author of the study, the findings underscore the need for further investments in mental health services when air pollution gets worse. "Here, we show that particulate matter is having these more general effects, not just on symptoms but also on service use," she said."
"Lake heatwaves may become hotter and longer, new study suggests"
"Lake heatwaves—periods of extreme warm surface water temperature in lakes—may become hotter and longer by the end of the 21st century, according to a study published in Nature, increasing the link between climate change and extreme events. The modeling study, which is validated using satellite observation records generated by ESA's Climate Change Initiative, shows that under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the average duration of lake heatwaves could increase by around three months on average, with some lakes reaching a permanent heatwave state. The increasing frequency of marine and land heatwaves has been linked to global warming in previous studies. However, less is known about lake heatwaves and how they will be affected by global warming. Iestyn Woolway, a research fellow with ESA's Climate Office, and colleagues modeled the impact of heatwaves on 702 lakes from 1901 to 2099 distributed all over the globe in this latest study. They show, for the first time, that heatwaves frequently occur in lakes, and that they are very sensitive to climatic variations."
"Earth's Habitability Today Is Basically Due to Luck, Millions of Simulations Show"
"It took evolution 3 or 4 billion years to produce Homo sapiens. If the climate had completely failed just once in that time then evolution would have come to a crashing halt and we would not be here now. So to understand how we came to exist on planet Earth, we'll need to know how Earth managed to stay fit for life for billions of years. This is not a trivial problem. Current global warming shows us that the climate can change considerably over the course of even a few centuries. Over geological timescales, it is even easier to change climate. Calculations show that there is the potential for Earth's climate to deteriorate to temperatures below freezing or above boiling in just a few million years. We also know that the Sun has become 30 percent more luminous since life first evolved. In theory, this should have caused the oceans to boil away by now, given that they were not generally frozen on the early Earth – this is known as the "faint young Sun paradox". Yet, somehow, this habitability puzzle was solved."
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