It's happened: Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, admitted in open court Tuesday to violating federal campaign finance laws — at the direction of a candidate who told him to do so. Cohen is saying that Trump was a principal of the crime he admits to having committed. Under federal law, that makes Trump criminally liable as an accomplice.
The closest historical analogy is when Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski named President Richard Nixon as an unindicted co-conspirator. That was based in part on testimony by John Dean, who had implicated Nixon in congressional testimony while Nixon was still in office. But even Dean's 1973 guilty plea in court to obstruction of justice did not state that he had committed his crimes at the direction of the president.
This event is therefore unprecedented in U.S. history. Never before has someone pleaded guilty in open court and said he acted at the direction of the president. We are therefore entering into a new phase of the Trump presidency — one that will be complex and treacherous for the president and for the country.
When it became clear that Nixon was criminally liable for acts he had committed as part of the Watergate coverup, Congress initiated impeachment proceedings. Nixon soon resigned rather than face impeachment.
As president, Trump cannot be criminally charged under current Department of Justice guidelines. And he has shown no interest in leaving office.
In a rational world, Congress would wake from its torpor and get serious about investigating the president. Assuming Cohen is telling the truth — and he has no obvious reason to lie, and no promise of a reduced sentence — then-candidate Trump ordered a federal criminal violation in order to hide the fact that he was paying hush money to Stormy Daniels, a woman with whom he had an extramarital affair.
That's a federal crime. Cohen is probably going to go to prison for following through on the order to violate campaign finance law. This suggests that Trump should be subject to criminal liability for giving the order.
Although he won't be charged while he's president, Trump could be charged with a federal crime the moment he leaves office. The prospect of criminal prosecution is therefore almost certainly going to loom over the rest of Trump's term.