Chart: AL Central midseason analysis

Record: 53-38

Why they'll reach postseason: The Tigers already have a 6½-game lead and have a starting rotation as solid as any in baseball.

Why they won't: Too many defensive mistakes, an overworked Al Alburquerque and a struggling Joe Nathan.

Record: 48-46

Why they'll reach postseason: The offense will become reliable and James Shields will lead the rotation to a second-half surge.

Why they won't: Down years by Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler will cost them.

Record: 47-47

Why they won't: Defensive mistakes — and there have been many — keep them around .500.

Chicago White Sox

Record: 45-51

Why they'll reach postseason: Rotation behind Chris Sale steps up and Gordon Beckham has big second half.

Why they won't: They waste big seasons by Sale and Jose Abreu because of a weak roster.

Why they'll reach postseason: Joe Mauer and Danny Santana come off DL to spark the offense.

Why they won't: The lack of depth in the starting rotation will take its toll during the second half.