Case against George Zimmerman may be doomed

Last week, media outlets filed motions to unseal the records concerning the arrest of George Zimmerman in connection with the shooting death of Trayvon Martin. Sooner than later, the public will see what evidence special prosecutor Angela Corey has that warranted the filing of second-degree murder charges.

Absent something new in Corey's file, one of America's best-known lawyers feels the case against Zimmerman is doomed. Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz believes that the murder charges will be thrown out.

In a recent interview with me, Dershowitz acknowledged the low evidentiary bar necessary at this juncture but still opined that Corey has not met it.

"Most affidavits of probable cause are very thin," Dershowitz said. "This is so thin that it won't make it past the judge on a second-degree murder charge. There is simply nothing in there that would justify second-degree murder. The elements of the crime aren't established ...

"There is nothing in there, of course, either about the stains on the back of Zimmerman's shirt, the blood on the back of his head, the bloody nose, all of that. It's not only thin, it's irresponsible. I think that what you have here is an elected public official who made a campaign speech ... for re-election when she gave her presentation, and overcharged, way overcharged. ...

"If the evidence is no stronger than what appears in the probable-cause affidavit, this case will result in an acquittal."

Nothing offered by the prosecution at last week's bond hearing contradicts what Dershowitz told me. In fact, when investigator Dale Gilbreath, who signed the affidavit, was asked what proof he had that Zimmerman was the instigator, he offered absolutely no evidence.

The affidavit also says that in his recorded call to police, Zimmerman, "while talking about Martin ... stated 'these a-- , they always get away.'"

And, the affidavit says, when the dispatcher instructed Zimmerman not to pursue Martin, "Zimmerman disregarded the police dispatcher and continued to follow Martin, who was trying to return to his home."

What the affidavit does not reveal is what, specifically, began the physical confrontation. Here is the critical paragraph:

"Zimmerman confronted Martin, and a struggle ensued. Witnesses heard people arguing and what sounded like a struggle. During this time period, witnesses heard numerous calls for help, and some of these were recorded in 911 calls to police. Trayvon Martin's mother has reviewed the 911 calls, identified the voice crying for help as Trayvon Martin's."

Confronted and a struggle ensued? Ensued how? Provoked by whom? And where Zimmerman presumably has told Sanford police that Martin was the initiator, what evidence does the prosecution have to refute him -- with Martin himself silenced? The affidavit does not say.

Dershowitz acknowledges that "probable cause is a very minimal standard. It just means if everything you say turns out to be true, have the elements of the crime been satisfied? ... This affidavit doesn't even make it to probable cause. Everything in the affidavit is completely consistent with a defense of self-defense. Everything."

Conventional wisdom holds that a critical pretrial moment will come when the defense argues a motion to dismiss the case on the "stand-your-ground" law (which will render Zimmerman immune from prosecution if by a preponderance of evidence he can show that he "reasonably believed" using deadly force was necessary to prevent death or great bodily harm).

But if Dershowitz is right, the case won't make it that far. The affidavit suggests that Zimmerman was the provocateur with its references to his profiling, slurs and refusal to follow law enforcement advice ("we don't need you to do that"). But even if Zimmerman was the initiator, he will still maintain some right of self-defense.

"So, there is nothing in this affidavit -- and I've read it quite carefully -- that suggests the crime. It suggests the possibility of a crime, but a good judge will throw this out," according to Dershowitz.

When Sanford police initially investigated the case, they referred to it as a potential case of "manslaughter," but then declined to prosecute, at which point Gov. Rick Scott appointed Corey to investigate.

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