CHICAGO — Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime show. What she did exactly, well, that turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.
At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday's appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.
Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.
The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.
More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi's market for '' Who will perform at the Big Game? '' A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.
Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.
Due to ''ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B's attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance,''' Kalshi cited one of its CFTC-approved rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.
''Under the full rules, singing and dancing counted as a performance, but just dancing in the background did not,'' Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said Wednesday in a statement. "In the as-broadcast performance, Cardi B was dancing and mouthing words to the song, but it was unclear if she was ‘singing.'''
