Campaign Download: Spotlight already pivots to Iowa for 2016

September 13, 2014 at 12:27AM
Minnesota Sen. Al Franken, right, receives applause from Ruth and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin following Franken's remarks at the 32nd Harkin Steak Fry Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Indianola, Iowa. (AP Photo/The Des Moines Register, Mary Chind) ** MANDATORY CREDIT. MAGS OUT. NO SALES. **
Minnesota Sen. Al Franken, right, attended Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin’s 2009 Steak Fry in Indianola, Iowa. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Iowa Democrats gather Sunday for Sen. Tom Harkin's annual Steak Fry fundraiser, headlined this year by former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Things to know:

Nothing actually gets fried. "In 37 steak fries, they've never fried a steak," said Democratic consultant Jeff Link. But they called it a steak fry at the first, in 1972 near Winterset, and the name stuck.

In the past two competitive Democratic presidential campaigns, the event served as a valuable opportunity for candidates to practice getting their supporters mobilized.

Who has attended? More like who hasn't. Bill Clinton will be making his fourth Steak Fry appearance on Sunday. He was the headliner in 1992, weeks before he was elected president, and returned in 1996. He came again in 2003, along with the entire slate of Democrats running for president. In 2006, Sen. Barack Obama's appearance drew a packed crowd, a sign of his rising popularity.

Harkin is retiring, and it's not completely clear what will replace the event.

No steak for Joe: Vice President Joe Biden is returning to the key presidential state of Iowa next week, reminding voters not to count him out of the next presidential campaign. The White House says Biden will be in Des Moines on Wednesday. He'll speak at an event for a Catholic social justice group called Nuns on the Bus. Last year, Biden was the headliner at the Steak Fry.

State of play

A CNN/ORC International poll of registered Iowa voters, out Friday, measured support for 2016 presidential prospects.

Republicans

Mike Huckabee 21%

Rep. Paul Ryan 12%

Sen. Rand Paul 7%

Jeb Bush 6%

Gov. Chris Christie 6%

Gov. Rick Perry, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Scott Walker 5%

Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Bobby Jindal 4%

Rick Santorum 3%

Democrats

Hillary Clinton 53%

Vice President Biden 15%

Sen. Elizabeth Warren 7%

Independent Sen. Bernard Sanders 5%

Gov. Andrew Cuomo 3%

Gov. Martin O'Malley 2%

Gov. Deval Patrick 1%

About the cash

Senate Republicans' campaign arm spent almost $13 million in August. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised about $6 million in August and still has close to $20 million ready to spend. Campaign committees typically unload their cash stockpiles in August and September to pay for TV ads. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's reports haven't been released. Heading into August, the Democrats' campaign arm had bested the GOP's efforts in 17 of the previous 19 months.

Neel who?

California Gov. Jerry Brown holds a commanding lead in his bid for an unprecedented fourth term — and only one in four likely California voters can even identify his Republican challenger, Neel Kashkari, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. Brown, a Democrat, leads Kashkari by 21 points among likely voters, with 57 percent saying they plan to cast a ballot for the governor or are leaning that way, compared with 36 percent for the GOP candidate.

Someone else's turn

Members of Mitt Romney's inner circle, who gathered Tuesday for a staff reunion in Washington, are shooting down speculation about the former Republican presidential nominee's 2016 ambitions. Romney has repeatedly denied interest in a third presidential bid, even as polls show him as one of the nation's most popular Republicans. "He believes in his heart he'd be a good president, but he also believes he had his chance and it's someone else's turn," said senior adviser Ron Kaufman.

Facebook tracks political pulse

Your Facebook profile doesn't have boxes to check which political party you belong to or whether you voted in the last election. But political organizations that already know these things can now deliver Facebook ads to fit your political preferences. At least two statewide campaigns have used the new tool, "Custom Managed Audiences," to reach Facebook users. Facebook said Terry McAuliffe's election as Virginia governor in 2013 and this year's re-election effort of Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, were examples of successful targeting via voter lists. The company introduced the tool in February 2013 and recently upgraded its capabilities. "I think it's revolutionary," said Michael Franz, an associate professor of government at Bowdoin College who studies voter turnout.

Punch line

"The New York Times had to issue a correction after an article referred to Dick Cheney as president of the United States. The Times apologized to Dick Cheney and changed his title to 'former president of the United States.' " Conan O'Brien on Wednesday.

News services


FILE - In this Dec. 31, 2007, file photo, then-Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., smiles while speaking at a campaign stop at Muscatine West Middle School in Muscatine, Iowa. Clinton last left Iowa on an ìexcruciatingî night, the beginning of the end of her White House campaign. She returns for the first time this weekend, not quite yet running for president, but sure to hear cheers from a crowd of Democrats hoping she will. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)
Rodham Clinton (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Former President Bill Clinton speaks at the Southern Governors Association meeting in Little Rock, Ark., Friday, Aug. 15, 2014. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)
Clinton (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
FILE-- Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who relied on a Facebook tool in a successful primary campaign, on Capitol Hill in Washington, July 15, 2014. Cornyn’s campaign is one of at least two statewide campaigns during the past year that have used a new Facebook tool that delivers ads to users to fit their political preferences. The company first introduced the tool in February 2013 and recently upgraded its capabilities. (Doug Mills/The New York Times)
Cornyn (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Republican challenger Neel Kashkari smiles before participating in a gubernatorial debate with Gov. Jerry†Brown in Sacramento, Calif., Thursday, Sept. 4, 2014. Thursday's debate is likely to be the only one of the general election. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli, Pool)
Kashkari (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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