No Republican can win a statewide election without capturing at least 40 percent of the vote in Hennepin County. And with the Minneapolis population rising, no GOP candidate can do that without winning at least 30 percent of the city's vote.
This political math lesson came my way after making the rounds among a cadre of never-say-die Mill City Republican activists. It's a bit of a stretch. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the last Republican to win a statewide election, did indeed take 40.6 percent of the Hennepin County vote, but only 19.8 percent in Minneapolis.
But there's something to the claim that growth is making Minneapolis more important in statewide elections. If Republican Tom Emmer in 2010 had matched Pawlenty's share of the city's vote, he still would have been about 5,000 votes short of defeating Gov. Mark Dayton. As it was, Emmer garnered just 16.6 percent in the city, and lost statewide by 8,770 votes.
This numerical exercise came to mind last week as I scooted to hear a mayoral campaign pitch by Cam Winton — a candidate who lets it slip now and then that he's a Republican.
It says much about the status of Republicans in Minneapolis that Winton has filed for mayor not with the label of his preferred party but as the "independent responsible inclusive" candidate. Republicans haven't bothered to endorse city candidates lately — not that Winton is asking them to, mind you. The last endorsed Republican to serve on the Minneapolis City Council was "independent" Denny Schulstad, who retired in 1997.
Winton's arm's-length connection to the GOP also says something about him. The 34-year-old attorney and renewable-energy businessman may be a political newcomer, but he's got some of the moves of a pro.
For example, he knows that when a Republican speaks at the home of someone named Dayton (Vanessa, not Gov. Mark), he does well to emphasize his DFL connections. Winton's include his wife, DFL convention delegate Emily Pryor Winton, and his mother-in-law, DFL Senate District 48 chair Laurie Pryor. His campaign treasurer is 2008 DFL Third District congressional candidate Ashwin Madia.
Winton volunteered that he's at odds with the state Republican Party on same-sex marriage. That's also a smart move when standing in the legislative district that registered the largest "Vote No" percentage in the state on the 2012 same-sex-marriage ban — a whopping 86.3 percent.