California awaits a virus 'tsunami'

Los Angeles – The post-Christmas surge of coronavirus cases is worsening considerably in Los Angeles County, a much-feared scenario that officials say will result in more patient crowding at already overwhelmed hospitals and an increase in deaths.

The coming days are expected to be critical in determining how bad this next surge will get and how much it will affect conditions at hospitals.

On Thursday and Friday, L.A. County reported 18,764 coronavirus cases and 17,827 cases, respectively — significantly above the average of about 14,000 new cases a day over the last week.

"This very clearly is the latest surge from the winter holidays and New Year's — no question about it," said L.A. County Department of Public Health's chief science officer, Dr. Paul Simon. "It had gradually started earlier in the week, but [definitely] here in the last day or two."

About 1 in 5 coronavirus tests performed daily in Los Angeles County is coming back positive, a huge spike from November when only about 1 of every 25 tests confirmed an infection. And when community transmission is this prolific, officials warn that activities that seemed mundane months ago now carry a higher risk of infection than ever.

Simon said it's likely to continue over the next week or two, which will translate into even worse hospitalizations and more deaths. The number of daily COVID-19 deaths is already breaking records; in early December, about 30 people in L.A. County were dying every day from COVID-19 on average over a seven-day period; now, about 190 people on average are dying each day from COVID-19.

"I think it is a public health crisis at this point," Simon said. Hospitals "are extremely strained, extremely overextended."

Friday was the worst day yet for COVID-19 fatalities in California, as well as in Los Angeles County.

There were 676 deaths reported in the state Friday, including the 318 in Los Angeles County, according to a Los Angeles Times survey of health agencies. The figures easily top the previous single-day records: 575 deaths in California and 291 in L.A. County, both set on Dec. 31.

"We anticipate that the number of hospitalizations and deaths will remain high throughout this month because of what occurred over the holidays," Simon said. "We're going to see high levels of hospitalization and, sadly, deaths over at least the next two to four weeks."

What is particularly frightening about the coronavirus, Simon said, is how unpredictable it can be in who it hits hard. Although earlier in the pandemic, only 7% of COVID-19 deaths in L.A. County occurred among people with no underlying medical conditions, now 14% of all deaths have occurred among people with no such conditions.

"I know personally someone who is in his late 30s who became very ill," Simon said. "Everybody needs to recognize that this virus has the potential to wreak tremendous havoc, tremendous damage within the body," Simon said.

With hospital morgues overcrowded and overwhelmed funeral homes forced to turn families away, the L.A. County Coroner's Office is accelerating efforts to temporarily store bodies.