Brace Yourself: Snow Could Fall In The Metro Friday

With the showers that moved through on Wednesday (along with small hail in spots), mainly light rainfall amounts were noted in many areas. While we would have liked to see higher totals to help out the drought, we'll take what we can get at the moment. The top airport rainfall amounts were in Hutchinson (0.38") and Paynesville (0.34").

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Ready for the first snowflakes of the year for the metro? They are possible as we head into Friday morning as temperatures dip into the low and mid-30s, with some accumulation possible. As temperatures warm by the afternoon, precipitation will be more in the form of scattered showers. It likely won't be an all-day precipitation event - just scattered precipitation, with higher chances in the morning than in the afternoon. Highs only warm into the low 40s.

We'll watch scattered rain and snow showers throughout the day across the state, with highs only expected to be in the 30s and 40s.

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The greatest potential of some accumulating snow will mainly be through Friday, though some areas up north could see some additional snow Friday Night into early Saturday. A few places up north could top 1-2" of accumulation (if it sticks to the ground) and NWS Duluth mentions that locally higher amounts could be possible downwind (east and southeast) of some of the larger lakes in northern Minnesota, including Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes. Meanwhile, especially during the first half of Friday, we could see some slight snow accumulation as far south as the metro. In areas where the ground is cold enough, a tenth or two could accumulate.

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We continue to remain windy as well across the region for the next few days, helping to strip the trees of leaves that are ready to fall to the ground. Wind gusts through the beginning of next week could top the 20-25 mph range in the Twin Cities, making it feel cooler than the actual temperature - yes, we're not only talking snow but wind chill as well, another sign that the seasons are changing.

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The drought situation over the past week didn't change too much across the state, only seeing a slight increase in all active drought categories. 4.2% of the state - from the metro to southwestern Minnesota - is under Extreme Drought, and 79.32% of the state is under at least abnormally dry conditions.

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As we go day by day, the statewide Fall color map shows more and more dark red encompassing the state, indicating numerous State Parks that are reporting colors past peak (and/or leaves being stripped from the trees). Winds have certainly done a number on the leaves across the region as well. Split Rock Creek State Park, located in far southwestern Minnesota, noted on Thursday (at 75-100% color) that: "Powerful winds and cold temperatures have brought down leaves in the last week. Walking through the park you will hear the classic crunch of leaves underfoot. Many trees still hold their leaves while others with bare branches remind us the seasons are certainly changing." You can keep your eye on this map over the next several weeks from the MN DNR by clicking here.

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First Flakes Of Winter Later Today?
By Paul Douglas

When Mother Nature gives us lemons all we can do is a). gripe and b). make ice-cold lemonade. Hear me out. Less money spent on sunscreen and ice cream. Ugh. Try again: lower odds of pulling your back with yard work, weeding, etc. Saving a few bucks on gas money running up to the cabin? Note to self: this isn't working. You can only spin so much.

Canada continues to leak chilly air south of the border. A sprawling swirl of low pressure temporarily parked over Ontario will fling more wind-whipped showers into Minnesota today. I expect mostly-rain in the MSP metro, but it may be just cold enough aloft for a few fat, wet snowflakes to survive the journey to ground-level. You may spy a little snow out there by evening. A coating to an inch of slush may coat lawns and fields over the northern third of Minnesota. Fun!

Skies brighten a bit Saturday with a shot at 50F, and after a hard freeze in many spots early next week models indicate a slow warming trend with 60s, even 70s within a week or so. Buckle up okay?

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Showers, few flakes? Wake up 35. High 45. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, wintry mix up north. Wake up 34. High 50. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Another shot: gusty and cold. Wake up 42. High 47. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

MONDAY: Peeks of sun, still chilly. Wake up 30. High 42. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunnier and more tolerable. Wake up 28. High 48. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

THURSDAY: Blue sky, closer to average. Wake up 32. High 57. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
October 14th

*Length Of Day: 11 hours, 2 minutes, and 9 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 2 seconds

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This Day in Weather History
October 14th

1966: An enormous hailstone crashes through the windshield of a truck near Claremont in Dodge County. It was reported to be 16 inches in circumference.

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A cold front continues to track south and east on Friday, leading to some scattered showers and storms in New England, southern Florida, and along the Texas Coast. Some of this rain in New England will be on the heavy side. A low near the western Great Lakes will bring rain and snow chances to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cut-off low will bring some parts of southern California storms.

Meanwhile, as we continue to track the changing of the seasons, a couple of inches of snow will be possible in the upper Midwest mainly through Friday. Due to the northwesterly wind flow, some areas south and east of the larger lakes across the region could see higher totals due to some lake enhancement.

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Hard-hit citrus industry will mean higher prices for consumers

More from CBS Miami: "Consumers in Florida and across the nation should expect the price of Florida orange and grapefruit (fruit, juice, etc.) to increase as a direct response to the ravages of Hurricane Ian. Today, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the initial citrus crop forecast for the 2022-23 season. But that survey was taken before the hurricane. The forecast includes a decrease in Florida orange, grapefruit and specialty crop (mostly tangerines and tangelos) production. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Florida all orange forecast, at 28.0 million boxes (1.26 million tons), was down 32 percent from last season's final utilization."

Heating costs forecast to soar this winter

NYC storm resiliency 'far from complete,' quarter of post-Sandy federal funds unspent: Comptroller

More from the Gothamist: "After Hurricane Sandy hit New York City with an estimated $19 billion in damages, the federal government chipped in $15 billion in aid. A decade later, New York City has spent just 73% of that money, according to a new report from the city comptroller's office released on Thursday. The report described progress on recovery and resiliency efforts as "slow" and "far from complete" — but its findings provide recommendations for accelerating preparedness for future storms. "Climate change is moving a lot faster than we are, and I mean that in a double sense," said New York City Comptroller Brad Lander. "We are not moving quickly enough to get ready for the next Sandy-like storm, but also in these 10 years, the aperture of what climate risk looks like has opened so much wider.""

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser