Biggest budget battle awaits Congress before end of year

WASHINGTON -- Congress averted a federal government shutdown on Monday when it reached a deal over $2.6 billion in disaster aid, but the latest skirmish over a tiny sliver of the federal budget could be a bad omen for what lies ahead in Washington.

In the coming months, Congress will tackle much larger issues: President Obama's $445 billion jobs bill, a congressional supercommittee tasked with reducing the deficit by $1.5 trillion and continued funding of the federal government past Nov. 18.

All are big-ticket items with plenty of moving parts and plenty for both sides to gripe about. After Congress came within days of shuttering government over funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, some lawmakers -- including those in the Minnesota delegation -- are wary about the months ahead.

"I don't think you've seen the end of this," said U.S. Rep. Tim Walz, a Democrat. "It's just unfortunate. This one makes it even worse that we're setting precedent for dealing with emergency funding and throwing it into the politics of brinksmanship."

On Monday morning, FEMA appeared dangerously close to running out of funding before the end of the fiscal year on Friday. Senate Democrats and House Republicans were deadlocked about whether to cut money elsewhere in the budget to pay for the extra disaster aid.

The fight was the third time this year that Congress had come to the brink. In April the government came within hours of shutting down and in August came close to default before the debt limit was raised.

'The public is ... fed up'

This time, Minnesota's congressional offices saw no increase in their call volumes before the deal was reached. Some offices reported getting zero calls about the disaster aid impasse.

Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank, said the lack of outrage is a sign that the public is tiring of the partisan bickering.

"They're just sort of tuning it out, tuning Congress out, tuning Washington out," Bowman said. "They're just so dissatisfied with their performance."

The two parties also disagree on the root of the problem.

"There are a critical mass of members -- mainly in the other body -- that really don't care if the government continues or if we had gone into default," said Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., referring to the House of Representatives. "These are things I find are really the reason behind the low regard that Americans have for the institution."

But Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen said the GOP-led House has passed many bills that wind up "sitting on the doorstep of the Senate, gathering dust."

"The public is rightfully fed up with Washington politics as usual," Paulsen said. "I've said for a while now that Congress is broken, and I think that some of these fractious arguments that have taken place have proved that's the case."

Challenges ahead

In the end, a crisis was averted Monday not because anyone compromised, but because FEMA itself found enough funding to last through the fiscal year. House Republicans and Senate Democrats agreed to keep the lights on through Nov. 18, and the House should pass the deal next week.

Both sides could declare victory: Republicans were able to prevent spending increases in the 2011 budget, and Democrats kept coveted energy programs from getting the ax.

That won't be the case in November.

Before Thanksgiving, the so-called supercommittee, made up of six Democrats and six Republicans, is supposed to find more than $1 trillion in deficit reduction. Republicans say it must come in the form of spending cuts and changes to entitlement programs, and that taxes cannot be raised. Democrats say the reduction must include spending cuts and revenue increases, but no reduction in entitlement benefits.

One possible point of leverage: If the supercommittee fails to find sufficient deficit reductions, there could be an across-the-board cut to both domestic and defense spending that neither party wants.

"What's so striking is that it takes a near-crisis to propel Congress to agree on anything," said Kathryn Pearson, a political scientist from the University of Minnesota. "That really makes it difficult to accomplish major policy changes."

Franken said that the public's low regard for Congress is cause for concern. People don't want Congress to act like its function is "crisis management," he said. "Obviously, we could be there again November 18th, and I don't think that's the way to do things."

Jeremy Herb • 202-408-2723 Twitter: @StribHerb