The Big 12 made it to November with every team at least halfway through its reduced regular-season schedule, five-time defending conference champion Oklahoma finally on a roll — and the league probably already out of playoff contention.
Even before the Pac-12 starts play this weekend and with the Big Ten only two games in after its delayed start in this pandemic-affected season.
No. 14 Oklahoma State (4-1, 3-1 Big 12) is the only Big 12 team without at least two losses, even though none has played more than six games. Every team has lost in league play, and the only three non-conference losses were all to opponents from the Sun Belt — no fun for a Power Five league.
While the Big 12 made some schedule revisions and kicked off the season in September like the SEC and ACC, the 10-team league that has had only Oklahoma make the College Football Playoff in the past has already cannibalized its chances of getting one of the four playoff spots.
"You know we debate that every year anyway. So it's a mess with where we're at," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said of comparing the leagues. "How it's all going to end up, I've got no idea how they'll come to that conclusion. We all signed up for the same policies to start the season. So we've got to kind of get in line and take what medicine they give us."
After starting 0-2 in the Big 12 for the first time since 1998, Oklahoma (4-2, 3-2) has won its last three games. The Sooners won in four overtimes against Texas in strange scene at the State Fair of Texas, then won by 19 points over TCU and 34 points over Texas Tech while not playing a game in Norman in the month of October.
Oklahoma has to keep winning just to make the Big 12 championship game and have a chance to win its sixth conference title in a row.
The latest ESPN playoff predictor gives the Sooners only a 1% chance of being in the CFP for the fifth time in six seasons. That is only slightly below the 1.2% chance given to Oklahoma State. Two Pac-12 teams that haven't even played a game are given at least a 15% chance.