Watching the Tropics
NOAA's National Hurricane Center is still keeping an eye on a way of energy in the Atlantic Basin that could become our first hurricane later this week or early weekend. This will be tracking along the the north coast of South America in the Southern Caribbean. This will bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to those locations as it drifts west toward to Central America by the weekend.
Tracking the Tropics
Here's the 5 day tropical outlook from NOAA's NHC. The area marked in red below is the area that could become Hurricane Bonnie later this week/weekend. However, there are 2 other areas of interest that NOAA's NHC is watching. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico and another low chance of tropical formation in the central Atlantic.
Tracking the Tropics
Here's NOAA's storm track for that tropical disturbance, which will possibly become Bonnie early Wednesday morning. We could also see our first hurricane of the 2022 season later this week / weekend prior to landfall with Central America.
Tracking the Tropics
Here is the intensity forecast for 94L using some of the same models. Most members suggest a gradual increase in wind speeds as we head through the week with tropical storm status possible by midweek. If this becomes named, it would be Bonnie. There is also a chance that Bonnie could become the first hurricane of the season. Most models keep it at category 1 status.
Spotty Severe Threats Wednesday & Thursday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is an isolated risk of strong to severe storms across parts of the region PM Wednesday and PM Thursday. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary concern with any of the stronger storms that develop in dark green.
Spotty Thunder Chances This Week
Here's the weather outlook from 7AM Wednesday to 7AM Monday. More showers and storms will be possible across the Dakotas and NW Minnesota late Wednesday, which will slide east through the Midwest on Thursday. There also appears to be some spotty showers and storms late weekend into 4th of July Monday across parts of the region.
Precipitation Potential Through Next Week
Here's the extended rainfall potential through early next week, which shows decent rainfall amounts across parts of the region. The best chance of storms will come in PM Wednesday & Thursday and again late weekend into early next week. Stay tuned...
Dry June For Many - Heavy Rain For Others
Here's a look at the precipitation departure from average so far this June. Note that many locations are dealing with deficits with a few locations being nearly -1.00" to -2.00" or more below average through the first 26 days of the month. Minneapolis is -3.08" below average, which is good enough for the 6th driest start to any June on record. However, last week saw very heavy rainfall in a few locations across Central MN, including St. Cloud, where they saw significant flooding. St. Cloud is now more than +1.75" above average, which is good enough for the 29th wettest on record.
Minnesota Drought Update
Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 10% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.
Wednesday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook for Wednesday, which shows slightly unsettled weather in place with temps warming into the 70s, 80s & 90s. Most locations will be above average once again with readings nearly +5F to +10F warmer than the late June average.
Twin Cities June Summary So Far
So far this June, the Twin Cities is running nearly +3.1F above average and good enough for the 16th warmest start to any June on record. We're also nearly -3.08" below average and the 6th driest start to any June on record.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temps warming close to 90F in the afternoon with southeasterly winds. There is a chance of isolated showers and storms in the afternoon, but mainly north of the metro.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday shows temperatures starting in the lower 60s and warming in the upper 80s by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible in the afternoon, but mainly north of the metro. Winds will be breezy, especially late in the day with gusts approaching 30mph from the SSE.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows slightly above average temps in place through Thursday with readings warming to near 90F. We'll be slightly cooler late with highs in the lower 80s.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows spotty t-shower chances late Wednesday into Thursday with warmer than average temps. We'll be a little cooler Friday and the weekend with chances of storms late weekend into early next week.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps over the next few days will be at or slightly above average. We'll cool down a bit by the weekend and perhaps into the first week of July. However, the 2nd weekend of July could be warm if not hot. Stay tuned!
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across much of the Central US.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place in the northeastern part of the nation.
Better Than Average 4th of July Weekend?
By Paul Douglas
The 4th of July weekend looms and meteorologists are nervous. What can wrong, and what time? Summer weekends are precious, but the 4th is Peak Summer. Timely public service reminder we are just the messengers. We don't make this stuff.
Caveats, disclaimers and hand-waving arguments aside, holiday weekend weather looks pretty good. Saturday should be the nicest day with sunshine and low humidity. Nocturnal thunderstorms bubble up Saturday night, but most of Sunday looks dry (and stickier) with more 80s. The wildcard is Monday, when T-storms may be more widespread by afternoon. I hope the European weather model is wrong.
In the meantime today feels like summer with a shot at 90 and a few T-storms blossoming up north. Drippy dew points rise into the 60s, peaking tomorrow with another thunderstorm or two. Canada leaks slightly drier air into Minnesota Friday and Saturday; a comfortable way to ease into the holiday weekend.
Grading on a curve I give this weekend's weather a B+. But have a Plan B Monday PM OK?
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Hot sunshine, sticky. Winds: S 15-25. High: 90.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breezy. Chance of t-storms. Winds: S 15-30. Low: 71.
THURSDAY: Some sunshine, passing T-storm. Winds: SW 10-20. High: 86.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny, less humid. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 65. High: 84.
SATURDAY: Warm sunshine, nighttime T-storms. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 66. High: 86.
SUNDAY: Plenty of sunshine, drying out. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 85.
MONDAY: AM sunshine, PM T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 65. High: 84.
TUESDAY: Early puddles, then clearing. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 70. High: 83.
This Day in Weather History
June 29th
1969: Worthington picks up over 6 inches of rain in 24 hours.
1930: Extreme heat develops in Minnesota. Canby got up to a sizzling 110 degrees.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 29th
Average High: 82F (Record: 102F set in 1931)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 47F set in 1924)
Record Rainfall: 3.48" set in 1877
Record Snowfall: None
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 29th
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 9:03pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 33 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 34 seconds
Daylight LOST since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 minutes
Moon Phase for June 29th at Midnight
1.2 Days Since New Moon
National High Temps Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday shows above average temps in the Midwest with highs nearly +5F to +10F above average. It'll be a little cooler in the Mid-Atlantic.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through Thursday, which shows showers and storms along the Gulf Coast. There will also be monsoon storms in the Southwest and storms possible in the Midwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the Central and Southern US. There will also be areas of heavy rain in the Eastern US.
Climate Stories
"SCIENTISTS SAY THE SUN IS ACTING UP AND CAUSING SATELLITES TO FALL BACK TO EARTH"
"Most folks probably don't think of satellites as capable of sinking, but according to the European Space Agency they can and do. Space news site Space.com reported Thursday that ESA scientists had to raise the Swarm constellation satellites, which measure Earth's magnetic field, because they were sinking in chaotic space weather. "In the last five, six years, the satellites were sinking about two and a half kilometers [1.5 miles] a year," Swarm mission managerAnja Stromme, ESA's told Space.com. "But since December last year, they have been virtually diving. The sink rate between December and April has been 20 kilometers [12 miles] per year." Although satellites always face a downward drag while in orbit, space weather has been making the sink worse, the ESA said. That's why the International Space Station makes frequent maneuvers to keep itself in orbit and out of the worst of the drag."
"ARTIFICIAL LIGHT IN CITIES LENGTHENS POLLEN SEASON"
"A new study shows how artificial light has affected the natural seasonal processes of plants in urban regions of the United States. The study, published in PNAS Nexus, demonstrates how urbanization affects the natural world, resulting in noticeable changes for humans, says Yuyu Zhou, associate professor of geological and atmospheric sciences at Iowa State University and corresponding author of the study. For instance, the levels of artificial light during nighttime hours in urban settings alters the natural circadian rhythms of plants, lengthening pollen season for many plants in those regions. That means city dwellers who suffer from allergies may have to deal with sneezing and itchy eyes for longer portions of the year, Zhou says. "From this study, we found urban nighttime light has significant impact on urban plant phenology," Zhou says. "We found artificial light significantly advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology in the United States."
"What's in the future for weather forecasting?"
My name is Harry Enten, and I'm addicted to weather forecasting. In my teens, I went to Penn State Weather Camp, where I visited the National Weather Service and AccuWeather, and spent a week diving into the art and science of weather forecasting. Around that same time, I got featured in the New York Daily News about snow measurements. I didn't end up going into meteorology because I hate calculus. My addiction to weather forecasting and particularly snow remains, however. (There's a reason I'm not moving to Washington, D.C., as it averages less than 14 inches of snow per season.) However, I'm not a person who pays a lot of attention day to day to climate change. And as I learned in the latest episode of my podcast, "Margins of Error," having this disconnect between weather and climate change is surprisingly common.
