Jay Lietzau's Belmont Stakes picks: We don't get fooled again, right?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. After hitching my wagon to Epicenter in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness — and running a non-threatening second in both, at least Epicenter can't fool me again. But as a degenerate horseplayer with a short memory, let's give the third leg of the Triple Crown a run and try to recoup some of our losses.

Contenders: MO DONEGAL has many things going in his favor. Ran respectable in the Derby after drawing the rail and breaking slowly. Still managed to swing 10-wide (yes, 10-horses wide) and grinding down the stretch to only be beaten by four lengths. Has the home court advantage with a win at Belmont, and his connections of jockey Irad Ortiz and trainer Todd Pletcher have captured multiple major wins on the New York circuit. Continues to improve with his speed figures progressing with each and every start. The one thing that is not in Mo Donegal's favor, and it's a concern, is whether there will be enough early speed in the race to set-up his closing kick. Although he could be closer to the early pace than he was in the Derby, he may need some help in front of him.

WE THE PEOPLE could be loose on an uncontested lead. He definitely has the controlling speed and because "pace makes the race", he will be dangerous. There may be others in the race that will show more speed to keep him honest but he will be a major factor in the race. Although he may be loose on the lead, his class may be questioned. His only Grade 1 attempt resulted in his poorest performance and if he gets in a battle down the stretch with higher-caliber horses, his class will be tested.

Potential: CREATIVE MINISTER has been improving with every start and his showing in the Preakness proves he belongs. His stalking running style might be what is needed to pass the tiring speed in the lane while getting first run on the closers. GOLDEN GLIDER has some speed and is bred to run all day. If the top picks don't fire, he could be around at the end at a big price.

$100 Wagering Strategy

$50 Win: Mo Donegal

$30 Exacta: Mo Donegal/We the People