Beautiful Monday Ahead - Watching Two Mid-Week Systems

Record highs were set across northern Minnesota on Saturday, as highs climbed into the 40s and even low 50s for some locations. Record highs were recorded in Baudette, International Falls, and Hibbing. Meanwhile, we were unable to break 40F at MSP airport.

Do you want to know why it was much warmer up north on Saturday vs. southern Minnesota? Pine trees! Here's an explainer from NWS Duluth:

_______________________________________________

Another gorgeous mid-February day is on tap as we head into Monday - who knows, maybe it'll make you want to play hooky from work (or maybe you're taking the day off after watching the Big Game Sunday evening anyway - I'm not judging!). Morning temperatures will start off in the mid-20s with highs climbing to the low/mid-40s in the metro.

Beautiful sunshine can be expected statewide on Monday, with just some passing clouds at times (especially the farther north you go). Warm weather continues to be in place, with highs reaching the 30s and 40s.

_______________________________________________

Highs will remain up around 40F on Tuesday as we watch the next system move on in, bringing daytime rain and eventually a mix of precipitation/all snow later Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Behind that system, a cooldown returns in for the second half of the week, with 20s expected Thursday and Friday. We'll watch the potential for another system Thursday (that looks to be mainly to our southeast - more on that below) before another warm-up into the 30s looks likely for at least next weekend.

Rain will move in as we head through Valentine's Day Tuesday, reaching the metro as soon as the midday hours. On the northwestern side of this shield of precipitation, rain should change to snow into the evening and overnight hours. In the metro, this changeover will eventually happen during the Tuesday Night/early Wednesday timeframe. Precipitation will move out of the state during the early afternoon hours Wednesday. 2-4" of snow could fall with this system from west-central to northern Minnesota, with lesser totals (likely under an inch) for the metro. Meanwhile, some areas across southern Minnesota (including the metro) could see upward of an inch of liquid.

If you're heading out for Valentine's dinner, bring that umbrella for your date as we will likely see rain showers around and temperatures in the upper 30s.

Meanwhile, we will be tracking another system right on the heels of our Tuesday-Wednesday storm across the central United States as we head into Thursday. While there is some considerable spread in the models in relation to this system, I would currently lean more toward the European model with the potential track of the system (and potential snowfall). Despite that, it is something to keep an eye on over the next few days just to be safe - and, either way, it looks like travel will be impacted across portions of Iowa and Wisconsin Thursday.

_______________________________________________

More 40s Today - Winter Returns Next Week?
By Paul Douglas

Our midwinter slumber continues with low 40s today and 30s into Wednesday; another slushy thaw next weekend. The last time we saw plowable snow in the MSP metro area? January 19 (3.5"). We've picked up a tenth of an inch of snow so far in February. After 55" the first half of winter. This pattern makes my head hurt.

Expect rain Tuesday, ending as a little metro slush Wednesday as we cool down a notch. A few inches of snow may accumulate over central Minnesota.

Models hint at a more significant storm a week from Tuesday with plowable potential, especially south of the Twin Cities. We are long overdue for a change in the pattern, but for now our Marchlike preview limps on.

A January Thaw has spilled into February. Even if the Polar Vortex sets up shop overhead March can't get as cold as January. I pray.

_______________________________________________

MONDAY: Hello March! Mild sun. Wake up 24. High 43. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Rain arrives. Wet snow northwest MN. Wake up 34. High 39. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Flurries taper. Slushy coating? Wake up 31. High 33. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY: Storm stays south. Sunny & chilly. Wake up 9. High 21. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 6. High 27. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Some sun, still quiet out there. Wake up 24. High 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
February 13th

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 20 minutes, and 57 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 53 seconds

*When do we see 11 Hours of Daylight?: February 27th (11 hours, 2 minutes, 59 seconds)
*When is Sunrise at/before 7:00 AM?: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*When is Sunset at/after 6:00 PM?: March 1st (6:00 PM)

This Day in Weather History
February 13th

1872: A snowstorm buries Sibley County with 12 foot drifts. Many people perished in the storm.

1866: What may be Minnesota's 'Greatest Blizzard.' It lasted for three days and buried barns in drifts. Luckily, it began at night when many people were at home.

1838: In the days before Tower…at 2:00 am the mercury thermometer at Ft. Snelling freezes at 40 below. The actual temperature is unknown.

_______________________________________________

Up to two feet of snow could fall across the Cascades and other western mountain ranges (including the Rockies) through Valentine's Day Tuesday. Meanwhile, at least an inch of rain will be possible across the central United States. Most of the rain in the Mid-Atlantic will have fallen by Monday morning, with 1-3" in spots.

_______________________________________________

Scientists fear a Great Toxic Dustbowl could soon emerge from the Great Salt Lake

More from CNN: "Like the rest of the West, Utah has a water problem. But megadrought and overconsumption aren't just threats to wildlife, agriculture and industry here. A disappearing Great Salt Lake could poison the lungs of more than 2.5 million people. When lake levels hit historic lows in recent months, 800 square miles of lakebed were exposed – soil that holds centuries of natural and manmade toxins like mercury, arsenic and selenium. As that mud turns to dust and swirls to join some of the worst winter air pollution in the nation, scientists warn that the massive body of water could evaporate into a system of lifeless finger lakes within five years, on its way to becoming the Great Toxic Dustbowl. "This is an ecological disaster that will become a human health disaster," warned Bonnie Baxter, director of the Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah. "We know about dust storms, we know about particulate pollution, we know about heavy metals and how they're bad for humans," she told CNN. "We see a crisis that is imminent.""

Wildfire Smoke May Worsen Extreme Blazes Near Some Coasts, According to New Research

Explaining the Fed's climate test

More from E&E News: "Turns out modeling catastrophic climate change is harder than it looks. Just ask the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank is now in the process of gauging six major banks' approach to preparing for the economic realities of a warming world. And as part of that effort, the Fed is developing a "pilot climate scenario analysis" that will test those lenders' ability to model — and then handle — a variety of climate-related events, such as a major hurricane strike in the northeastern United States or a future with robust climate laws. Climate risk experts have lauded the move as a critical first step toward addressing the financial threats of global warming. But the Fed's efforts also have drawn criticism and elicited a long list of questions — including what the Fed and the six banks will gain from the effort, and what comes next."

_______________________________________________

Follow me on:

Thanks for checking in and have a great day!