State Fair Weather So Far

Pictures from the Minnesota State Fair on September 2, 2022. Credit: D.J. Kayser.

I went out to the State Fair with my wife Rebecca on Friday, and of course, I had to choose one of the warmest days of the Fair to go. And a week before we went a lot of models were showing pretty nice weather (the upper 70s or low 80s, not the 88F that was recorded at MSP) for this past Friday... such is life in the weather model world. We tried both the pickle pizza and the chicken cheese curd tacos - and definitely would recommend them! But last I checked this isn't a food column, it's a weather column.

Here's a look at the weather for the first nine days of the Fair (through Friday). We started out with six straight days with highs right around 80F before we saw the upper 80s for Wednesday through the second Friday of the Fair. With the much more pleasant weather we saw on Saturday - and that is expected to continue through Labor Day - we won't see a 90F degree day during this State Fair. The last time we did was a six-day stretch between August 24th and 29th in 2013. Meanwhile, the 88F/89F degree days were the warmest day of the State Fair since September 1, 2018 (88F).

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Another Pleasant Day Expected Sunday

If you're Sunday holiday weekend plans include heading to the State Fair or out by a lake, there will continue to be no weather concerns! It'll be a somewhat cool start (compare to most recent mornings) as lows dip into the low 50s before highs climb to the mid-70s under mainly sunny skies. The most recent we've had morning temperatures as cool as they are expected to be Sunday morning was early June.

Another beauty of a day is expected statewide with lots of blue skies with high pressure located over Lake Superior. Highs will range from the upper 80s out in western Minnesota to the 60s up in the Arrowhead.

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Blue Skies For Labor Day As Well

Blue skies continue for your Labor Day Monday with highs climbing into the upper 70s. Highs Tuesday as kids go back to school will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with sunshine expected.

A closer look at Labor Day Monday shows morning temperatures dropping to the upper 50s, popping into the 60s by 9 AM and 70s by Noon. If you're grilling, heading out for the last day of the Fair, spending some time outside by a lake or for a picnic, or coming home from the cabin, there will be no weather concerns once again.

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Warming Back Up Next Week

And no weather concerns will actually continue for the rest of the week, with lots of sunshine expected. Temperatures will start to climb, though, heading into the week. Highs in the mid-80s are expected by Wednesday and Thursday, about 10F degrees above average for early September.

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Winter Predictions? A Total Waste of Time
By Paul Douglas

This just in: the winter outlook is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, dangling over a precipice. Any speculation about January is more horoscope than science. There are limits how far out we can look with accuracy and confidence.

NOAA predicts another La Nina-flavored winter, with colder than normal water in the Pacific. That often correlates with colder, snowier winters for Minnesota, but not every winter. There are glaring exceptions. I suspect the upcoming winter won't be anything like last winter. You may have better luck predicting if the Vikes will make the playoffs, and why?

I'm heading out to the Minnesota State Fair today to graze, gawk and celebrate the arrival of fall. Sunny weather lingers all week with mid-70s today giving way to another streak of 80s this week. Models predict a more vigorous cool frontal passage Saturday with a few windblown showers, but no frost in sight just yet.

Winter guesses make for good gossip, but the science isn't there yet. Too many variables. We'll all be surprised.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Comfortable sunshine. Wake up 53. High 74. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny, a fresh breeze. Wake up 58. High 78. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: Intervals of sunshine, milder. Wake up 63. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 66. High 87. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny, bordering on hot. Wake up 66. High 89. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Blue sky, feels like mid-August. Wake up 68. High 88. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Showers taper, gusty and cooler. Wake up 62. High 68. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 15-30 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
September 4th

*Length Of Day: 13 hours, 5 minutes, and 35 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 3 minutes and 2 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 13 Hours Of Daylight?: September 6th (12 hours, 59 minutes, 29 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 7 PM?: September 27th (7:00 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
September 4th

1992: Early morning storms result in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.

1941: A batch of tornadoes hits Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.

1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.

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National Weather Forecast

On Sunday of Labor Day weekend, a couple of systems will bring shower and thunderstorm potential across the eastern and southern United States. An isolated rain shower is also possible in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, record highs can be expected out west with excessive heat continuing. More on that is below.

Two pockets of heavy rain can be expected through Labor Day Monday - one in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, and another in southern Texas. In these areas, over 3" of rain will be possible.

In the Atlantic, we are tracking two systems - Danielle in the north Atlantic which won't impact much other than boats, and Earl which is sitting north of the Leeward Islands. The good news with Earl is that it looks like the storm will quickly curve back out to sea, potentially even passing south of Bermuda. Out in the East Pacific, Javier is near Baja California but is expected to start moving westward.

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Record-Breaking Heat Through The Middle Of Next Week In The Western U.S.

Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Saturday morning, September 3nd, 2022

Key Messages:

• A dangerous and long duration heat wave will continue to impact the Western United States through the Labor Day holiday weekend through the middle of next week.
• Numerous record high temperatures and some all-time monthly record highs are expected across the region with highs in the 90s and 100s.

Widespread Excessive Heat Continues. As we continue to head through the extended Labor Day weekend, many areas are under Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings from California to Montana. Excessive Heat Warnings are in place through Tuesday for places like Phoenix, San Diego, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas. Sacramento is under their Excessive Heat Warning from Sunday through Wednesday.

Forecast Highs Through Tuesday. Numerous record highs are expected across the western United States as we head through the middle of the week, with temperatures easily climbing into the 90s and 100s across the region. In Sacramento, a high of 112F is expected both Monday and Tuesday, which would be the hottest temperature recorded in September (current hottest is 109F). Remember that heat is the number one killer in the United States, with an average of 138 killed per year between 1990-2019.

Critical Fire Danger. We are also tracking a critical fire danger from northern California to the western Dakotas today due to the hot temperatures and low humidity, gusty winds and the potential of a few thunderstorms in some areas. These conditions would allow fires that ignite to quickly spread across the region.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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NASA once again calls off Artemis I launch due to technical issues

More from CNN: "NASA has once again waved off an attempt to launch its massive new moon rocket on an uncrewed test mission because of technical issues. The scrub was called at 11:17 a.m. ET, three hours before the beginning of the launch window. NASA administrator Bill Nelson said that the mission managers will hold a meeting to discuss the next steps and determine if a launch is possible on Monday or Tuesday, or if the rocket stack needs to be rolled back into the Vehicle Assembly Building. If it is rolled back into the building, Artemis I won't have another launch opportunity until October, with mid-October being most likely due to the schedule at the launchpad, Nelson said."

Inside the small federal agency funding the biggest climate moonshots

More from Protocol: "Inside the vast ecosystem of the Department of Energy sits an unassuming agency that's quietly shaping the transformative technology needed to confront the climate crisis. Relatively unknown outside of climate tech circles, the wonkily named Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (or ARPA-E for short) has built a reputation among founders for game-changing funding that's helped startups through their earliest stages. While a number of technologies to reduce carbon emissions are mature — think wind turbines, electric vehicles and the like — there are still countless innovations needed to get the world to net zero. Venture capital can play a role in helping nascent technologies such as carbon dioxide removal mature. But ARPA-E fills a unique niche for startups with promising moonshot ideas that just require a little more TLC to realize their potential."

US Airports Polluting the Air With Dangerous Toxins

More from 24/7 Climate Insights: "The U.S. banned leaded gasoline for cars in 1996 with the Clean Air Act as a way to protect Americans from harmful lead poisoning. Yet tens of thousands of Americans are still exposed to the harmful byproducts of such fuels each year, because leaded fuel is still used in some piston-engine airplanes – more than 170,000 of them, according to climate activist group Earthjustice. Piston-engine planes are typically smaller aircraft with a propeller on the front, fitting just a few passengers. Such planes often fly out of smaller regional airports, as opposed to larger commercial planes used by most passengers."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser