Monday Weather Outlook

The work week has returned and, along with it, highs in the 80s on Monday in the Twin Cities. We'll start off in the mid-50s before climbing into the 70s by lunchtime, eventually topping off around 80F in the late afternoon hours. Skies will be fairly sunny throughout the day.

Looking statewide for your Monday, it will be quite a warm day - in fact, highs are expected to be even warmer up in northern Minnesota than they will be across southern Minnesota! Up near Roseau highs will reach the mid-80s, with only 70s expected down toward Marshall, Mankato, and Rochester. However you slice it, though, highs will be above average. Mainly sunny skies can be expected across the state.


Warm Week Ahead

We will remain above average through the work week in the Twin Cities, with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s expected. These highs will be 5-10F degrees above average for the middle of May. Some models are hinting that by Friday and Saturday, highs could climb into the low/mid-80s.


Rain Potential This Week

Once we get past Monday, our rain chances will start to increase across the region, with the best timing on the potential for showers and thunderstorms currently being Wednesday Night into Thursday. While there continues to be some model differences, up to at least a half an inch of rain will be possible across portions of southern Minnesota through Friday morning, with heavier totals off across northern portions of the state.


Very Dry Start To May

Rain in the forecast is a welcome sight, as we have been quite dry so far this month - that is why you continue to see fire weather concerns just about any day the wind is elevated recently. Many areas of the state are running at least an inch below average so far in May, including almost an inch and three-quarters here in the Twin Cities.

May 1st through the 15th (essentially the first half of May) was the fourth driest start to May in MSP history.

As we look at some of those rankings statewide, it's the driest start to May in Hibbing, 3rd driest in Duluth, 10th driest in International Falls, 12th driest in St. Cloud, and 23rd driest in Rochester.


4th Driest Start to May on Record at MSP
By Paul Douglas

We've been "Dopplered" nearly to death. All this remarkable technology affords the illusion of precision in an impossibly imprecise world.

The truth: some things are beyond our scope to predict. Exactly what time will storms hit? How intense will a tornado become? How many minutes of sunlight today? Exhibit A: Saturday storms over Wisconsin moistened the air, triggering low stratus clouds and fog that were slow to burn off yesterday, keeping us 5 degrees cooler than we would have been otherwise. Many days we have the right idea concerning what mood Mother Nature will be in. But the details can be elusive.

We salvage a dry Monday, but southerly winds fueling the next hot front spark spirited rounds of showers and storms the latter half of this week. I expect 80s by Friday and Saturday, along with high humidity and an elevated risk of a few severe thunderstorms. Yes, summer arrives in tentative waves.

This is the driest start to May since 1917; 4th driest on record at MSP. We are due for puddles.


Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Partly sunny, mild. Wake up 53. High 79. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, isolated T-shower. Wake up 57. High 77. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Patchy clouds, thunder risk late. Wake up 58. High 78. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Sticky with a few strong T-storms. Wake up 62. High 80. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: AM storms, then warm PM sunshine. Wake up 64. High 83. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: Warm sunshine, T-storms rumble in late. Wake up 65. High 82. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Morning storms, then cooling off. Wake up 66. High 76. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.


Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 17th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 56 minutes and 26 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 11 seconds

*When Do We Climb To 15 Hours Of Daylight? May 19th (15 hours, 0 minutes, and 40 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 5:30 AM?: May 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/After 9 PM?: June 12th (9:00 PM)


This Day in Weather History
May 17th

1915: Old man winter's last hurrah dumps 5 inches of snow along the western shore of Lake Superior.


National Weather Forecast

With a somewhat stationary boundary in place from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley back into the Plains and Great Basin, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across this region, with some snow at higher elevations in the Rockies and in Utah. A system in New England will bring the potential of storms. And some rain with Cascades rain/snow will be possible in the Pacific Northwest with an approaching system.

The focal point for very heavy rain through Tuesday evening will be across the Southern and Central Plains, where 2-5" totals will be possible as Gulf of Mexico moisture streams north into the region. This is likely to lead to flooding across the region, with Flood/Flash Flood Watches in place.

And that won't be the end of the heavy rain over the Southern Plains this week. Through early next Sunday, some areas of Texas and Oklahoma could receive 6-9" of rain.


Another dangerous fire season is looming in the Western U.S., and the drought-stricken region is headed for a water crisis

More from The Conversation: "Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out. It's only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California's governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs they rely on are dangerously low and irrigation demand for farms is only just beginning. Scientists are also closely watching the impact that the rapid warming and drying is having on trees, worried that water stress could lead to widespread tree deaths. Dead and drying vegetation means more fuel for what is already expected to be another dangerous fire season."

Exxon Blames You for Climate Change

More from Earther: "Over the past few decades, oil companies have largely shifted away from climate denial. Now, you can see the energy giants openly acknowledge that climate change is happening, but their new messaging tends to leave a bad taste in my mouth. A new, first-of-its-kind study by Harvard researchers Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes explains why: The new language makes it seem like climate change is our fault, not theirs. "It's a really pernicious kind of gaslighting," said Supran. The authors, who published their work One Earth on Thursday, used machine learning to analyze 212 public and internal Exxon documents from 1972 and 2019, including all publicly available internal company memos, all advertorials the company paid for in the New York Times, and all of the firm's flagship climate change reports. For the painstaking research, they employed three different forms of computational linguistics to locate the differences in how Exxon talks about climate change in public versus in private. The discrepancies were stark."

Half of emissions cuts will come from future tech, says John Kerry

More from The Guardian: "The US climate envoy, John Kerry, has said 50% of the carbon reductions needed to get to net zero will come from technologies that have not yet been invented, and said people "don't have to give up a quality of life" in order to cut emissions. He said Americans would "not necessarily" have to eat less meat, because of research being done into the way cattle are herded and fed in order to reduce methane emissions. "You don't have to give up a quality of life to achieve some of the things that we know we have to achieve. That's the brilliance of some of the things that we know how to do," he told BBC One's Andrew Marr show. "I am told by scientists that 50% of the reductions we have to make to get to net zero are going to come from technologies that we don't yet have. That's just a reality."


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser