Back to Reality This Weekend. Rain/Snow Mix Likely

It's back to reality this weekend with cool, wet and windy weather. A few showers and thunderstorms could give way to a slushy coating overnight into early Sunday morning across parts of the state. Check the blog for more updates. -Todd Nelson

April 15, 2023 at 2:30AM

NATIONAL TAX DAY – April 15

"April 15th of each year is National Tax Day. In the United States, the term "tax day" refers to the day on which individual income tax returns are due to the federal government. The day may also refer to April 15th for state tax returns. The Federal income tax filing deadline is midnight on April 15th of every year, with extensions occurring when the 15th lands on a Saturday, Sunday, or a holiday. In those circumstances, the returns are due the first succeeding day which is not a Saturday, Sunday, or a holiday. These dates can differ depending on the residence as well. Some years, due to extenuating circumstances such as natural disasters, more significant extensions have been granted by the Federal Government. HOW TO OBSERVE NATIONAL TAX DAY. Complete and file your taxes. Quote Benjamin Franklin: Nothing is certain but death, and taxes. Save a copy of your tax return in a safe place. Give a shout-out to your tax preparer. Use #NationalTaxDay to post on social media."

National Tax Day - April 15th (National What Day/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

It Was A Very Warm Week of April

It took a while, but we finally got some much needed spring warmth and it came in a hurry with our first 50F, 60F, 70F and 80F, all happening within a week or so. Our first 50F came nearly 1 month later than normal, while our first 60F came nearly 2 weeks later than normal. Our first 70F occurred on Monday, which is only a few days, and our first 80F came nearly 2 to 3 weeks ahead of schedule... How about that?!

Spring Sprung In A Hurry This Year (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Record Highs This Week Too!

We even spotted a couple of record highs this week.
Wednesday recorded an 88F high, besting the previous record for April 12th of 83F set in 1931.
Thursday recorded an 87F high besting the previous record for April 13th of 86F set in 2006.
Friday's record high was 89F set in 2003, but we didn't quite make it...

Minneapolis High Temps This Week (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

General Thunderstorm Risk on Saturday

Scattered showers are expected across the region on Saturday with perhaps enough instability to kick out a rumble of thunder to two. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, we just have a general thunderstorm risk, nothing severe...

General Thunderstorm Risk on Saturday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Potential

According to NOAA's WPC, the extended precipitation shows some fairly impressive amounts across parts of the state. From PM Friday to AM Monday, there could be some 1" liquid tallies. While most of us will take the additional precipitation, flood concerns remain high so the additional heavy precipitation is not all that welcomed until we can get passed the flooding threat this spring.

Weekend Precipitation Potential (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weekend Snowfall Potential

According to NWS's NDFD, there could be a slushy coating of snow by early AM Sunday. Some models suggest a heavier batch of snow through AM Sunday, but ground temps are quite warm, so much of the snow should melt on contact.

Snowfall Potential Through The Weekend (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

3rd Snowiest Winter on Record

Just a reminder that MSP has seen nearly 90" of snow this season, which is the 3rd snowiest winter season on record. We need 5.4" more get into the 2nd spot and 9" to get into the top spot. If you're wondering, the latest measurable snow (0.1") on record at MSP was on May 24th set in 1925. The snow season isn't quite over just yet... Stay tuned.

3rd Snowiest Winter on Record at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

As of Friday, April 14th, quite a bit of snow had vanished across the region compared to what we had at the beginning of the month. In fact, the landscape looks dramatically different over the last 2 weeks.

Snow Depth As Of Friday Morning (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Pack Water Equivalent

According to the National Weather Service, a significant amount of snow has melted across the region over the last few days, which means that a significant amount of water has entered rivers, streams and creeks this week. Take a look at the difference in SWE from April 11th to the 14th. Some of the most significant changes took place across the norther half of the state, where some locations are now seeing no snow on the ground!

SWE on April 11th

Snow Pack Water Equivalent (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

SWE on April 14th

Snow Pack Water Equivalent on April 14th (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Flood Outlook

According to the National Weather Service, a number of river gauges around the region will be entering flood stage here over the next few days. Some spots will be at Moderate and even Major flood stage, which could cause issues in a few flood prone communities.

Flood Outlook (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Major Flooding Expected in Stillwater

Here's the river forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater. Note that we'll enter flood stage quickly this weekend and likely enter major flood stage late weekend through most of next. Note that this could be the most significant crest since March 31st of 2019 and could potentially be the 6th highest crest on record there! If the crest gets to 90ft, HWY 95 between Afton and Bayport begins to flood. Lakefront Park bathhouse in Hudson affected.

River Forecast for the St. Croix River at Stillwater (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Major Flooding Expected Along The Mississippi River at St. Paul

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is also expected to reach flood stage by early next week and will likely go into Major Flood Stage by the middle part of next week. It'll depend on how much additional precipitation we get this weekend, but river levels could certainly go higher into next weekend. Stay tuned...

River Forecast For the Mississippi River at St. Paul (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temps in place over the weekend, which will actually be cooler than average for mid April. Note that the average high for MSP is in the upper 50s, so we'll be quite a bit below that until the middle of next week.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Saturday, April 15th be quite a bit cooler than it was over the last several days. Highs will only warm into the low/mid 50s, which will be nearly -5F below average. Spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible with a rain/snow mix possible overnight into early Sunday.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps across the region on Saturday will still be quite warm across much of Wisconsin with temps running well above average. Behind the cool front, temps will drop into the 40s and 50s (even the 30s) across much of Minnesota. These temps will be nearly -5F to -15F below average for this time of the year.

Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Saturday shows temps hovering in the low/mid 50s for much of the day. There will be spotty showers and a few thunderstorms with pockets of heavier rainfall possible. Northwesterly winds will be breezy much of the day with gusts approaching 15mph to 20mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"April 10, 2023 - Spring leaf out continues to spread north. After arriving several days to weeks earlier than average (the period of 1991-2020) in much of the Southeast, lower Midwest, and mid-Atlantic, spring has slowed in the eastern U.S. Spring is 11 days late in Denver, CO, 2 days late in Chicago, IL, and 2 days early in Albany, NY. The West is mostly late. Yakima, WA is 12 days late, Boise, ID is 20 days late. Spring bloom has also arrived in southern states, days to weeks early in the Southeast, and days to over a week late in the Southwest. St. Louis, MO is 4 days early, Redding, CA is 17 days late. How typical is this year's spring? Darker colors represent springs that are unusually early or late in the long-term record. Gray indicates an average spring. Parts of the Southeast, lower Midwest, mid-Atlantic, and New York City area are seeing either the earliest spring leaf on record or a spring that only occurs once every 40 years (dark green). Parts of Arizona are seeing a spring that only occurs this late once every 40 years (purple). Spring bloom is latest on record across parts of the Southwest including California and Arizona, and earliest on record in parts of the upper Southeast including Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina."

Status of Spring (National Phenology Network/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

The weekend will be a bit unsettled across the Midwest with rain/snow chance lingering into early next week. It'll be a little quieter Monday and Tuesday before another system moves in midweek. However, we're eyeing another potential system late next week, which could bring another messy mix to the region. Stay tuned...

Extended Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps will be very chilly through the weekend with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average, especially on Sunday. 40F on Sunday will be nearly 50F cooler than it was on Wednesday and Thursday of last week - Uffda! The middle part of next week will warm to the mid 60s, which will be above average once again.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The weather this weekend will be unsettled with spotty showers and storms possible on Saturday. It may be cool enough early Sunday for a rain/snow mix with some slushy accumulations for some across the state. Early next week will be quieter with gradually warming temps into the mid 60s by midweek. The 2nd half of next week looks somewhat active with a couple of systems moving through. Stay tuned...

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the Central US especially across the Midwest. Meanwhile, warmer than average temps will be found in Florida and the Southwest.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows quieter weather in place across much of the Central US, which will be a change from the more active weather that we've been dealing with over the last several weeks.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Back to Reality This Weekend. Rain/Snow Mix Likely
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

The last few days were a trial run of summer here in Minnesota, minus the mosquitoes. Highs warmed to record levels across much of the Midwest, but fell just short of the 90 degree reading in Minneapolis. If we would've hit 90F, it would have been the 4th quickest first 50F to first 90F high on record. Oh, so close!

It's back to reality this weekend with cool, wet and windy weather. A few showers and thunderstorms could give way to a slushy coating overnight into early Sunday morning across parts of the state. Note that 89.7" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport this winter, which is the 3rd snowiest on record. We'd need another 9" to get to the top spot, which is still possible!

The snowiest April day on record was April 14th back in 1983 when 13.5" fell in the metro. Uffda! I guess Prince was right, "Sometimes it snows in April."

Milder sunshine returns next week with temps warming into the 60s midweek. Long range models are hinting at another messy storm next weekend.

May flowers aren't far away!

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Showers. Few rumbles? Winds: NNW 10-20. High: 53.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Breezy with rain and a few rumbles. Winds: NNW 15-25. Low: 36.

SUNDAY: Windy. Rain & snow. AM slush in spots. Winds: NW 20-40. High: 42.

MONDAY: Sunny. Breezy winds subside late. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 32. High: 52.

TUESDAY: Milder sunshine. Increasing clouds. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High: 58.

WEDNESDAY: Windy again. Chance of t-showers. Winds: SSW 15-30. Wake-up: 44. High 62.

THURSDAY: Cooler breeze returns. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 45. High 55.

FRIDAY: Another rain snow mix late? Winds: ENE 10-20. Wake-up: 38. High 50.

This Day in Weather History

April 15th

2002: An early heat wave overtakes Minnesota. Faribault hits 93 degrees, and the Twin Cities would experience their earliest recorded 90 degree temperature with a high of 91.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

April 15th

Average High: 57F (Record: 91F set in 2002)

Average Low: 37F (Record: 18F set in 1875, 1935, 2014)

Record Rainfall: 1.19" set in 2012

Record Snowfall: 3.5" set in 2018

Twin Cities Almanac For April 15th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

April 15th

Sunrise: 6:28am

Sunset: 7:57pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 29 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 00 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 4 hour & 43 minutes

Moon Phase for April 15th at Midnight

2.9 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For April 15th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Saturday

Temperatures on Saturday will be very warm east of the Mississippi River with temps running well above average. Record warmth won't be as widespread as it was earlier this week, but a few isolated records can't be ruled out in the Northeast. Meanwhile, temperatures in the Western of the Mississippi River will be cooler behind a storm system that will bring unsettled weather to the Central US this weekend.

National Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday will be more active in the Central US with the possibility of strong to severe storms. Areas of heavy rainfall will be possible with some of the storms, while areas of snow will be possible farther north.

National Weather Map For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

A bigger storm system will wrap up in the Central US this weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe farther south, while areas of wet snow will be possible farther north. This storm will move into the Great Lakes and Northeast late weekend with more unsettled weather.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts of precipitation across the Central US and especially across the Midwest and Great Lakes Region. We'll also see some heavier precipitation across the Pacific Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), snowfall accumulations will be possible across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Rich People's Swimming Pools Are Making Water Scarce"

"The wealthy are driving water crises in cities across the world, new research shows. As the world gets warmer and droughts grip cities from Madrid to Shanghai, it can seem like we're headed for a Mad Max-style future where water is a scarce resource. We're already starting to see a version of this as regular Californians make water cuts while movie stars use as much as they want. But what role, exactly, do the lifestyles of the rich and famous play in water shortages? That's the question researchers set out to answer in a study published Monday in Nature Sustainability. Their analysis found that elites in cities across the world are using so much water that their impacts could be just as devastating to urban water supply as climate change or an increase in the population."

"Everyone, everywhere, all at once – the only way to address the climate emergency"

"In March 2023, UN Secretary General António Guterres spoke at the release of the UN's 6th IPCC report. He was unequivocal: "In short, our world needs climate action on all fronts – everything, everywhere, all at once." But, as in much of our conversation about climate change, the actor in that sentence is obscured: who is going to deliver this action? It has to be everyone. Changing "everything, everywhere, all at once" will take a groundswell of changemakers: individuals everywhere need to shift the systems and structures they're part of, in their work, schools, neighborhoods and countries. Systems are made up of people and are therefore changed by people, by the collective effort of individuals. Everyone. The good news is that more than ever before, people understand that climate change threatens the places, people, and things we love. And we care deeply. Yet change isn't happening fast enough. Getting people to care about climate change is only part of the work: the next step is to unlock individuals' climate agency."

"Atlantic Basin Primed for a Below-Average 2023 Hurricane Season"

"Across the Atlantic, 13 named storms may form this year in an expected below-average hurricane season with the ocean's fury held back, in part, by conditions in the Pacific. Six could become hurricanes, and of those two may reach major status with winds of 111 miles (179 kilometers) per hour or more, by the time the six-month Atlantic season ends on Nov. 30, according to Colorado State University's annual forecast. A possible Pacific El Nino would bring more wind shear across the Atlantic cutting back on the number of storms during the season's peak from August to October. However, that dampening effect of El Nino has the potential to be offset by a warmer-than-normal Atlantic, which would provide fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes. Forecasters emphasized that given the conflicting signals, there is more uncertainty than normal. Since 1990, an annual average of 14 named storms formed in the basin."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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