Abortion is in decline.
In a report issued last month, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the number of abortions among women ages 15-44 dropped by 24% in the most recent 10-year window for which there is data (2007 through 2016), and the abortion rate — the number of abortions per 1,000 women — fell 26%.
These results track closely with the results of research conducted by the Guttmacher Institute, an organization that advocates for abortion rights and surveys a different set of providers. Guttmacher's figures show the abortion rate trending steadily downward from 1981, when it peaked at 29.3 per 1,000 women, to 13.5 in 2017. That's a 54% drop in 36 years.
That's good.
Even those of us who are ardent supporters of abortion rights recognize that unintended, unwanted or medically fraught pregnancies are distressing, and that terminating them is emotionally complicated.
Better still is evidence that suggests the reason abortion is in decline is because unintended pregnancy is in decline — better and more responsible use of improved contraceptive methods — and not because of the spread of state laws designed to make legal abortions more difficult to nearly impossible to obtain.
If the drop in the number of abortions was the result of laws that coerced women to carry their pregnancies to term against their will or even of successful proselytizing by foes of abortion rights, you'd expect to see a rise in the overall birthrate. But in fact, a National Vital Statistics System report issued last month shows U.S. birthrates have been trending downward since the late 1990s, and in 2018, birthrates among supposedly sexually irresponsible teens hit a record low of recent decades, down 72% from their peak in 1991.
My thought was that these positive developments might be having the unintended effect of diminishing political support for abortion rights. I know that part of the reason I have always backed abortion rights is that, coming into young adulthood in the late '70s and early '80s, I knew many young women who had abortions — women who believed that carrying an unintended pregnancy to term would derail their lives; women of great character who did not choose abortion lightly but who generally went on later to have children and careers.