The phrase "if the season ended today" has never been more of a potent threat than it is in 2020, but still: the fact that the Vikings would make the playoffs if the season ended today does not at all guarantee that's where they will finish once four more games have (probably) been played.
At 6-6, the Vikings have resurrected their season after a 1-5 start, and by virtue of the third tiebreaker (a slightly better record in games against common opponents as 6-6 Arizona) would be the No. 7 seed in the expanded NFC playoffs and face ... drumroll please ... No. 2 seed Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs.
But while what has already happened can tell us plenty, playing out scenarios for what might happen in the future is more useful in the big picture. With that in mind, let's take a look at how the season could play out as it relates to the Vikings' attempt to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in more than a decade.
*The simplest answer: Win and they're in. If the Vikings can manage to run the table and defeat, in order, Tampa Bay, Chicago, New Orleans and Detroit, they are guaranteed to make the playoffs at 10-6. That's a massive "if," of course. Even after a 5-1 run that included a quality win at Green Bay, the Vikings haven't shown the type of consistency to make one think they can win four more in a row — particularly with high-quality teams Tampa Bay and New Orleans on the remaining schedule.
But running the table is possible. And while it would leave the Vikings with just a 7% chance of winning the NFC North, per FiveThirtyEight, it would at least put them in the mix for the top wild card spot — and a chance to face the winner of the mediocre-to-lousy NFC East in the first round.
*Going 3-1 would put the Vikings in great shape. Let's say the Vikings manage to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday (more on that in a minute) and add wins over Chicago and Detroit while losing to New Orleans. That would leave them at 9-7 — and still give them a 94% chance of making the playoffs, again per FiveThirtyEight's QB-adjusted playoff projections. That's not a guarantee, but that's an awfully good spot.
*Winning the Tampa Bay game could "make" the Vikings, but losing it wouldn't "break" them. A victory Sunday, again per FiveThirtyEight, would give the Vikings a 71% chance of making the playoffs. A loss would drop them to 24%. That seems like a pretty big swing. A win would give them a clearer path to 9-7 and give them a head-to-head tiebreaker with Tampa Bay, which would also be 7-6.
But there's also a reasonably clear path to the playoffs even with a loss. That's because ...