Minnesotans might be in for some drought relief in coming months -- some of it in the form of snow.
Climate models are favoring a cooler- and wetter-than-normal February across the state, according to the nation's long-range outlook issued Thursday by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
In the short term, that could mean a revival for snow-removal crews and ski trail groomers. For the three-month period through the end of April, the agency's outlook stays with above-normal precipitation but sees no clear tendencies on temperatures.
"It'd be nice if they were right," said assistant Minnesota state climatologist Pete Boulay.
February is the Twin Cities' driest month on average, with 0.77 inch of precipitation, or 7.8 inches of snow. Even double those amounts would not make much of a dent in the current drought, Boulay noted. Since Aug. 1, official precipitation in the Twin Cities has been 7.75 inches below normal, or less than half the normal amount.
So what would help? A record wet February, and maybe a record wet March, Boulay said. If all of that were snow, it would amount to 26.5 inches in February and 40 more in March.
"But we'll take any moisture we can get," he said.
In suggesting the climate of the northern Great Plains is in for a short-term change, the models apparently relied on a sea-surface temperature phenomenon in the north Pacific Ocean that, like El Niño, is known to affect distant weather, said Anthony Artusa, seasonal forecaster with the CPC. Known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, it is expected to create moist southerly flows of air and possibly storm tracks across the central U.S., Artusa said. But it's not expected to alleviate drought in the southern Great Plains, where lack of soil moisture even more severe than Minnesota's will tend to keep the lower atmosphere dry.