Another very snowy week shaping up

Wet snow arrives later today and spills into part of Monday, with 2-4" of slush possible. Another long-durations now event is shaping up from Wednesday into Saturday as a powerful storm limps from Denver to Sioux Falls, then east towards Green Bay. It looks plowable, but the models are flipping back and forth, so confidence levels are low. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

March 5, 2023 at 3:30AM

Winter Weather Advisory

SNOW ACCUMULATES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHTER SNOW BUT CONTINUED IMPACTS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. The bulk of the snow accumulations are expected overnight Sunday into early Monday morning, with mainly lighter accumulations by daytime Monday. The Monday morning commuter period is going to be the main concern due to wet slushy snow and gusty winds. The wet and heavy nature of the snow means that even locations that see lower snow amounts will likely still see travel impacts.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CST MONDAY

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph.

WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CST Monday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Winter Weather Advisory (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sloppy System Arrives Sunday

A storm system will move through the Upper Midwest with areas of rain and snow late Sunday into Monday. The heaviest snow will be found through central and northern Minnesota with some plowable/shovelable amounts possible. Winds will also be breezy, so blowing snow will be an issue.

Weather Outlook Through Monday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

Here's the snowfall potential through early next week. Some spots across parts of central and northern Minnesota could see some 3" to 6", while a few spots in the northeastern part of the state could see more than 6" of snow.

Snowfall Outlook (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Snowfall Outlook (NWS Twin Cities/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

17th Snowiest Season on Record at MSP

Believe it or not, this has already been the 17th snowiest season on record at the MSP Airport with 71.4" of snow. If we pick up another 7" of snow, we'll move into the top 10. The snowiest season was in 1982-1983 when we picked up 98.6" of snow.

17th Snowiest Season on Record at the MSP Airport (NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows milder temperatures in place with highs in the 30s and possibly near 40F through early next week.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

As of Friday, March 3rd, the MSP Airport had 7" of snow on the ground. Much of the state of Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin has a pretty significant snowpack. Nearly 2ft of snow is on the ground near Lake Superior and almost 3ft on the ground near Marquette, MI.

Snow Depth As Of Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Seasonal Snowfall

After last weeks storm system, many locations are now nearly 2ft to 3ft above average snowfall for the season from Sioux Falls to the Twin Cities and north toward Duluth. 71.4" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport so far this season (since July 1st), which is the 6th snowiest start to any season on record and nearly 30" above average. Duluth has seen nearly 93" of snow this season.

Seasonal Snowfall Since July 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Seasonal Snowfall Departure From Average Since July 1st (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, March 5th will be fairly quiet in the morning with temps starting around 20F. We'll warm into the mid/upper 30s with areas of rain possible late in the day.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Sunday

Temps across the region on Sunday will warm into the 30s and possibly near 40F, which will be at or slightly above average for early March. Areas of rain and snow will develop later in the day with the heaviest snow possible in the central and northern Minnesota.

Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities through the day Sunday shows temps starting in the mid 20s in the morning and warming into the mid 30s in the afternoon. Skies will generally remain Cloudy with a chance of rain developing in the afternoon. West to southwesterly winds will develop with gusts approaching 10mph to 15mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hourly Feels Like Temps

Feels like temps on Sunday will hover in the 20s through much of the day with breezy west to southwesterly winds through the day.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

After a quiet Friday, weather conditions turn a little more active on Sunday with areas of rain and snow possible in the Midwest. There will be some shovelable snow amounts across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday. There's a bigger storm potential during the later part of next week with some heavier snow potential across parts of the Midwest. It is still too early to tell, but stay tuned for further details.

Extended Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temps over the next several days will warm into the 30s, which will be close to average for this time of the early in early March.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

Weather conditions will turn a little more active late weekend and early next week with areas of rain and snow. It'll be a little cooler late week with a better chance of snow late next week as well.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across much of the nation and especially east of the Rockies.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather in place across the Western US and continuing across California.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Another Very Snowy Week Shaping Up
By Paul Douglas

This winter, when in doubt, just predict snow. Chances are you'll be close. I like snow(preferably when I'm not driving in it) so maybe I'm biased, but gazing at the weather maps I believe we have a very good chance of experiencing a Top 5 Winter Snowfall in the metro area. All we need is another 13.6".

Wet snow arrives later today and spills into part of Monday, with 2-4" of slush possible. Another long-durations now event is shaping up from Wednesday into Saturday as a powerful storm limps from Denver to Sioux Falls, then east towards Green Bay. It looks plowable, but the models are flipping back and forth, so confidence levels are low. They usually are this far out. Suffice to say it could be a big pile, especially western Minnesota and Dakotas.

Nothing Nanook, but we cool into the 20s by next weekend with chilly exhaust on the backside of this storm.

The USDA says drought has been mostly eliminated from the eastern Corn Belt, along with much of Minnesota and Iowa. All that snow is paying big dividends!

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Early sun. Late PM snow. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 35.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain/Snow mix likely. Gusty winds. Winds: E 15-35. Low: 32.

MONDAY: Snow tapers to flurries, 2-4" possible. Winds: N 10-20. High: 34.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and dry. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 36.

WEDNESDAY: Snow arrives PM hours. Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 30. High: 34.

THURSDAY: Light snow and flurries. Winds: E 15-25. Wake-up: 28. High: 32.

FRIDAY: Heavier snow, high winds expected. Winds: E 20-40. Wake-up: 26. High: 33.

SATURDAY: Snow tapers to flurries. Very plowable. Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: 30. High: 32.

This Day in Weather History

March 5th

1966: A powerful blizzard finally ends in the Upper Midwest. Some wind gusts from the storm topped 100 mph.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 5th

Average High: 36F (Record: 72F set in 2000)

Average Low: 20F (Record: -14F set in 1960)

Record Rainfall: 0.80" set in 2022

Record Snowfall: 11.0" set in 1915

Twin Cities Almanac For March 5th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 5th

Sunrise: 6:43am

Sunset: 6:05pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 22 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: +3 Minutes & 7 Seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 2 hour & 36 minutes

Moon Phase for March 5th at Midnight

1.2 Days Until The Full "Worm" Moon - "12:29 p.m. CST In this month the ground softens and the earthworm casts reappear, inviting the return of the robins. The more northern tribes knew this as the Full Crow Moon, when the cawing of crows signals the end of winter, or the Full Crust Moon because the snow cover becomes crusted from thawing by day and freezing at night. The Full Sap Moon, marking the time of tapping maple trees, is another variation."

Moon Phase For March 4th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Sunday

Temperatures on Sunday will be cooler than average across the Western US with highs running nearly -5F to -10F below average. Meanwhile, folks in the Eastern and Southeastern US will be nearly +5F to +15F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook Sunday

The weather outlook for Sunday shows a rain/snow mix across the Midwest late in the day Sunday. There will also be widespread rain and snow showers in the Western US.

National Weather Map For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Active weather will be place across Western US and the Midwest through the early week time period. Accumulating snow will be likely for parts of the high elevations in the western US, while accumulating snow will be possible in the Midwest as well.

Weather Outlook Through Monday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier amounts in the Southern US once again with more widespread precipitation through the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some of the heaviest precipitation will be found in the Western US and the high elevations.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential

According to the ECMWF (European model), heavy snow will be found across much of the high elevations in the Western US and across the northern tier of the nation. Next week could be fairly active once again. Stay tuned...

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Do heat pumps work in cold places? Here's what you need to know"

"Brutal cold gripped Minneapolis, Minnesota, in the days before Christmas 2022, with wind chills as low as -40 degrees Fahrenheit and many residents cranking up their natural gas heating systems. But Alex Tsatsoulis' family kept warm using a highly efficient electric system called a heat pump, which can both heat and cool homes. "I don't think it got above zero in outdoor temperature for a while," Tsatsoulis said. "I'll be honest, I was amazed that in that frigid temperature, it was finding heat to put into the house." Heat pumps pull warmth from the outside air with a compressor and pump it inside. Adoption of the technology in cold places like Minnesota is still relatively new, but it is growing rapidly as cold-climate heat pump technology improves, financial incentives ramp up, and homeowners choose to fight climate change in their own lives. Meanwhile, federal tax credits and pending rebates are making it cheaper than ever to get a heat pump."

"Which state you live in matters for how well environmental laws protect your health"

"Your child could go to gym class on Monday morning and play soccer on a field that was sprayed over the weekend with 2,4-D, a toxic weedkiller that has been investigated as possibly causing cancer. Alternatively, the school grounds may have been treated with a lower-toxicity weedkiller. Or maybe the grounds were managed with safe, nontoxic products and techniques. Which of these scenarios applies depends in large part on your state's laws and regulations today – more so than federal regulations. For example, Texas requires all school districts to adopt an integrated pest management program for school buildings; IPM prioritizes nonchemical pest control methods and includes some protections regarding spraying of grounds. Massachusetts also restricts pesticide use on school grounds. Illinois requires IPM for school buildings only if economically feasible. States also vary greatly in the education and technical assistance they provide to implement these practices."

"California Drought Status Looks Very Different After Extreme Rain and Snow"

"Months of heavy rain and snow have hugely improved drought conditions in California. A drought monitor map from October 2022 showed large portions of California to be in an extreme or exceptional drought. The rest of the state was in a severe drought, with very small portions in a moderate drought or abnormally dry. However a map from February 28, after heavy rain and snow swept across the state, showed vastly different conditions. Most of the state is now classed as abnormally dry, while 16.7 percent of the state is not in a drought at all. Some small portions are in a moderate-to-severe drought. California has been in the grips of a drought for two decades. But at the end of February the state was hit by strong snowstorms, even in areas used to bone-dry conditions. An incredibly rare blizzard warning was issued in Los Angeles, as snow fell on low-elevation areas."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

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Todd Nelson

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