Another Cool, Quiet Week On Tap

Expect a colorful assortment of clouds today with showers sprouting north of the metro. A cool breeze behind today's clipper may keep temperatures in the 60s tomorrow, a hint of what's to come. Sunshine and a dusty breeze prevails much of this week with a slow warming trend. 80s return by the weekend. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

September 11, 2023 at 2:31AM

Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic

Here's a look at Hurricane Lee from Sunday, which was still a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph. At one point early Friday morning, Lee was a major category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165mph and a central pressure down to 924mb.

Hurricane Lee From Sunday (NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Lee

According to NOAA's NHC, the track for Lee keeps it as a major hurricane through midweek. Hurricane status is still expected through the end of the week as it makes a close encounter with Bermuda on Friday.

Tracking Lee (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

September 10th: Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Typical Tracks and Points of Origin
(September 11th - 20th)

Here's a map of all the tropical cyclone points of origin and their tracks from September 11th to the 20th from 1851 to 2015. As you can see, it has historically been a very active time period with tropical systems developing just about anywhere in the basin.

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin and Tracks: September 11th-20th (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP

It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.

6th Most 90F Days at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't as high, so the heat index wasn't as intense. Uffda!

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 16% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while 40% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 72% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 12% in a moderate drought.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Monday

The weather outlook on Monday shows temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s across the state, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. There may be a few isolated showers and or rumbles of thunder developing later in the day across the northern half of the state.

Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Monday, September 11th will be pretty comfortable with highs only warming into the lower 70s, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. Skies will be mostly dry for much of the day, but there could be a couple showers or storms that develop later in the day. Dewpoints will be very comfortable with even lower readings later into the afternoon.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Monday will be mostly dry through most of the day with temps in the low/mid 50s in the morning and into the lower 70s. Winds will be out of the north around 15mph to 20mph at times.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be a little cooler than average through midweek with temps only warming into the 60s and lower 70s, which will be more October-like and certainly fall-like. Temps will climb into the mid/upper 70s later in the week, which will be a little above average for mid September.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sticky Dewpoints into Early September

The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next several days shows very comfortable and fall-like readings into the lower 50s and even the 40s at times. This means that our overnight lows will be quite a bit cooler through the week ahead.

5 Day Max Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The 7 day extended weather outlook through the 2nd full week of September looks fairly comfortable with highs in the 60s and 70s with mostly dry conditions. There could be a few isolated showers late Monday into Tuesday, but it won't amount to much. It might be a little chilly at times during the morning hours, but the afternoons will be fairly comfortable

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Comfortable Temps Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite a bit nicer with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. A few days may dip into the 60s with overnight lows into the 40s, which will feel a little like October at times.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest through next weekend looks mostly dry through the Midwest. Most of the rainfall will be found across the Southern and Eastern US. Keep an eye on Lee in the Atlantic, which will likely impact eastern Canada next weekend.

Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the Nation. Cooler than average temps will be found across parts of southern California.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center it'll be dry from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. More active weather will be possible in the Northeast and across parts of the Southwest.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Another Cool, Quiet Week On Tap
By Paul Douglas

"The trouble with weather forecasting is tha tit's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it" wrote Patrick Young. In reality, forecast accuracy is slowly improving over time, and depending on the weather pattern there is (some) skill, some accuracy, looking out 10-14 days. We are missing fewer floods and tornadoes, and with the aid of sophisticated weather models, hurricane track and intensity forecasts are good, and getting better every year. Will the forecasts ever be perfect? No. Not even artificial intelligence can save us. Perfection in a random, chaotic world is wishful thinking.

Expect a colorful assortment of clouds today with showers sprouting north of the metro. A cool breeze behind today's clipper may keep temperatures in the 60s tomorrow, a hint of what's to come. Sunshine and a dusty breeze prevails much of this week with a slow warming trend. 80s return by the weekend

Phoenix has endured 55 days above 110F, breaking the old record set 3 years ago. Ouch.

Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Cooler, showers north. Winds: N 5-10. High: 70.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Winds: NE 5-10. Low: 53.

TUESDAY: Lingering clouds, cool breeze. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 68.

WEDNESDAY: More sunshine, comfortable. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 51. High 71.

THURSDAY: Sunny and milder. Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 55. High 79.

FRIDAY: Hazy sunshine. Winds: SW 10-15 Wake-up: 60. High 81.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 58. High: 82.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, touch of smoke. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 83.

This Day in Weather History

September 11th

1980: 3.35 inches of rain fall in St. Cloud.

1942: A line of thunderstorms races across Minnesota at 70 mph, producing severe winds that would destroy 651 barns in a 30 mile wide, 180 mile long path.

1931: The daytime high in St. Cloud was 96 degrees.

1931: Summer still has its grip on Minnesota, with a high of 111 degrees at Beardsley.

1900: The soggy remains of the Galveston Hurricane bring 6.65 inches of rain to St. Paul over two days.

1807: Thick smoky weather is noted at Pembina.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 11th

Average High: 75F (Record: 104F set in 1931)

Average Low: 57F (Record: 37F set in 1917)

Record Rainfall: 2.08" set in 1913

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For September 11th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 11th

Sunrise: 6:46am

Sunset: 7:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 45 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 4 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 52 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 11th at Midnight

2.8 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For September 10th at Midnight (Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Monday

Temperatures on Monday will be a little cooler than average across the Midwest and the Front Range of the Rockies. Meanwhile, the East Coast will be warmer than average.

National Weather Outlook For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Monday

The weather outlook on Monday will be unsettled from the Great Lakes to the Southern US along a stalled front. There will also be lingering storms along the East Coast.

National Weather Map For Monday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Tuesday shows a weak area of low pressure sliding into the Northeast with scattered showers and storms. There will also be lingering rain chances in the Southern and Southwestern US with areas of heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook Through Tuesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast, but the Western US will remain quite dry. Parts of Eastern Canada could see heavy rainfall from Hurricane Lee by next weekend.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Hurricane Lee looks absolutely terrifying in this footage from inside its eye (video)"

"Storm chasers caught terrifying footage from inside the eye of Hurricane Lee on Friday (Sept. 8). The footage of the hurricane shows lightning crackling throughout the storm as its jet-black eye looms ominously overhead. The video was shot by the U.S. Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron in Biloxi, Mississippi, known as the "Hurricane Hunters." The video was published by the U.S. Department of Defense on Friday (song "Broken Glass" by Logan Spaleta added by Space.com). Hurricane Lee is currently a Category 4 storm, meaning it features sustained winds of 130 to 156 mph (209 to 251 kph). As of Friday, the storm is in the Atlantic Ocean east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and is expected to move north over the next several days. It's not yet known if the storm will have any impacts on the U.S. Atlantic coast, according to a statement from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center."

"A Flesh-Eating Bacterium Is Creeping North as Oceans Warm"

"IF YOU WERE planning on a shore vacation this year, you might have kept track of great white sharks. The apex predator made famous by Jaws (and, OK, by The Meg and Sharknado) has been spotted on East Coast beaches from South Carolina up past Cape Cod, leaving potential beachcombers worried by accounts of close encounters and attacks. But many marine biologists are worried about a much smaller—in fact, microscopic—threat. They are tracking an unprecedented surge in ocean-going bacteria known as Vibrio, which recently killed three people and sickened a fourth in Connecticut and New York, at least two of them after swimming in the coastal waters of Long Island Sound. For swimmers and fishermen in the Gulf of Mexico, Vibrio is a known summer foe. It is one of the reasons for the old saying that you shouldn't eat oysters in months that don't have an R in their name: Warmer water encourages bacterial growth, and oysters accumulate these organisms when they feed. The bacteria is also an infection hazard for anyone who gets a cut while cleaning up soaked debris after a hurricane. But Vibrio appearing in the waters of the upper East Coast is a new and unfamiliar problem, fueled by the rapid ocean warming of climate change."

"Southerners slammed by rising temperatures, energy bills"

"Summer heat has been reaching triple digits more often in more places, especially in the U.S. South. It's one of the clearest signals of our warming climate. And a 2022 Washington Post analysis predicts more of the same: The next 30 years will bring the biggest more dangerous heat days to the South — from the Gulf Coast to Maryland. "This is a very personal issue," said Juanita Constible, senior climate and health advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council's climate adaptation team who has family members in Tennessee. "Since it's hotter than normal, you have this double issue of higher energy bills and infrastructure that was not designed for the summers of the future." Constible noted that energy burdens, the percentage of personal income needed to pay energy bills, tend to be highest in low-income communities and those with less energy-efficient infrastructure. Jennifer Whitfield, senior attorney for the Southern Environmental Law Center, pointed out that among low-income families, Black households tend to have higher energy burdens than White households, and the highest energy burdens afflict regions with more energy demand and lower energy efficiency."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

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Todd Nelson

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