"Last month marked by heat waves, tropical systems and flooding rain. September 2023 was remarkably warm and quite dry across the contiguous United States. The month also brought record heat and flooding rains to parts of the nation, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Below are highlights from NOAA's September U.S. climate report: Climate by the numbers September 2023 The average September temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 67.8 degrees F — 2.9 degrees above the 20th-century average — making it the seventh-warmest September in NOAA's 129-year climate record. New Mexico and Texas both saw their warmest Septembers on record, while Minnesota had its second warmest. An additional 10 states saw their top-10 warmest Septembers on record. The average precipitation last month was 2.10 inches (0.39 of an inch below average), ranking the month in the driest third of all Septembers in the historical record. Ohio had its fifth-driest September on record with Indiana and Michigan seeing a top-10 driest September on record. Connecticut had its third-wettest September on record, while Nevada and New Jersey both had one of their top-10 wettest Septembers."

See more from NOAA HERE:

"Year to date (YTD, January through September 2023) - The year-to-date average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 57.0 degrees F — 1.9 degrees above average — ranking as the 10th-warmest such YTD on record. Mississippi and Florida had their warmest January–September period on record while Delaware and Maryland saw their second warmest. An additional 24 states had a top-10 warmest such YTD on record. No state experienced a top-10 coldest event for this nine-month period. Looking at the year-to-date average precipitation, the total was 23.32 inches (0.12 of an inch above average), ranking in the middle third of the record. Massachusetts ranked second wettest, while Connecticut ranked third wettest on record for this YTD. Six additional states — Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wyoming — ranked among their top-10 wettest for this period. Conversely, Iowa ranked 10th driest for this nine-month period."

See more from NOAA HERE:

Here's the simulated radar from 7AM Thursday to 7AM Saturday, which shows a sizeable storm system moving through the Midwest. This could be a fairly good soaking for many with fairly strong winds.

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through the weekend, which shows widespread 1" to 2" tallies across the southern half of the state. Some locations could potentially see up to 3", mainly across the southwestern part of the state. This could be another drought denting rain for many, but still not enough to get out of the drought.

Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses (which aren't many) are showing up in blue in pockets along and north of the Twin Cities and also just east of the metro in western Wisconsin.

Here's a picture from Mike Roberts and the MN DNR website at Father Hennepin State Park . Fall colors look well underway there and will continue over the coming days.

According to the MN DNR, the fall color season is well underway. Parts of northern Minnesota are already at and past peak color. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.

See more from Travel Wisconsin HERE:

Here's a look at Tropical Storm Sean from earlier in the day Wednesday, which looked pretty disorganized. Regardless, Sean becomes our 18th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows a couple of disturbances in place. The first is Sean in the Central Atlantic, while the 2nd is a developing wave just off the western tip of Africa that has a low probability of formation over the next 7 days.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

The weather outlook on Thursday will still be chillier than average with readings warming into the the 50s across much of the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. Scattered rain showers will develop across the southern half of the state as we head through the 2nd half of the day. Some of the rain later in the could be heavy at times.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Thursday, October 12th will be cooler and breezy with increasing clouds and an increase in rain chances through the day. Again, some of the rain later in the day could be heavier at times.

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temperatures as we head through the next several days. Highs will only warm into the 50s, which will be below normal for this time of the year. The coolest day will be on Friday when highs struggle to get to 50F, which will be nearly -10F below average.

The 7 day extended outlook shows temps only warming into the 50s over the next several days with wet and windy weather in place later this week. Areas of heavy rain will be possible late Thursday into Friday with lingering showers into Saturday. We'll dry out late weekend and early next week with fall-like temps continuing.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will hover in the 50s over the next several days with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. There appears to be a gradual warming trend later next week with highs approaching 60F once again.

We're eyeing up a pretty significant storm system during the 2nd half of the week, which could bring some gusty winds and soaking rains to the Midwest. Friday looks like it could be the soggier day of the week. High pressure settles into the Midwest as we approach early next week with drier weather returning.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the western half of the nation as we approach mid month. Cooler than average readings will be in place across the Southeast.

Good news for anyone who eats food and enjoys water in their favorite lake. A soaking rain is shaping up tonight into early Saturday. It may not end the drought, but a slow-moving storm tracking south of the state should help to ease the nagging drought that has been with us for over 2 years.

Droughts don't start overnight and unfortunately, they usually take months to end altogether. Models consistently print out 1-2" of rain by Saturday, and ECMWF (European model) suggests 1-3" for a broad swath of central and southern Minnesota. Here is the timeline: heaviest rain and strongest winds arrive Friday, with gusts up to 40 mph and a few embedded T-storms possible. Minor street and urban flooding can't even be ruled out.

Clouds linger into Monday and I see highs in the 50s most of next week. No metro frosts or freezes in sight anytime soon.

By the way, had Friday temperatures been 10-12F colder we'd be predicting plowable snow. Then again had I been 10" taller I might have played for the Timberwolves.

THURSDAY: Rain arrives late PM. Winds: E 15-30. High 55.

FRIDAY: Raw. Windswept rain. Gusts to 40 mph. Winds: NE 20-40. High 48.

SATURDAY: Wet start, clouds linger. Winds: N 15-30. Wake-up: 46. High 52.

SUNDAY: Leftover clouds, cool wind. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 45. High: 53.

MONDAY: A few sunny breaks. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 41. High: 54.

TUESDAY: More clouds than sun. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 43. High: 55.

October 12th

1969: Snow accumulates in several locations. Minneapolis receives 2 inches, while St. Cloud records 3.6 inches, Redwood Falls gets 1.7 inches, and Springfield records 1.5 inches.

1918: Dry fall weather sets the stage for dangerous fires. Several fires roar through large areas of Carlton and St. Louis Counties. The towns of Cloquet, Moose Lake and Brookston are the hardest hit. The Carlton County Vidette calls it a 'Hurricane of burning leaves and smoke'. At least 453 fatalities are reported, and possibly as many as 1,000 occurred. Over 11,000 people would be left homeless.

October 12th

Average High: 60F (Record: 87F set in 1975)

Record Rainfall: 1.343" set in 1997

Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 2009

October 12th

Sunrise: 7:24am

Sunset: 6:34pm

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 43 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 Hour & 38 Minutes

1.5 Days Before New Moon

See more from Space.com HERE:

Temps on Thursday will be cooler than average by nearly -5F to -15F across the Midwest and High Plains thanks for a fairly large and intense storm system. Strong to severe storms will be possible across the Midwest with areas of heavy snow falling across the high elevations in the Rockies.

A storm system will continue to develop in the Midwest with strong winds and heavy rainfall across parts of the region. As the storm moves east it will speed up a bit, but strong storms and heavy rainfall will still be a potential issue for some east of the Mississippi River.

The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows widespread soaking rains across the Midwest as we head into the 2nd half of the week. Some spots could see in excess of 2" of rain through Saturday! Areas of heavy rain will also continue in the Southeastern US with several inches of rain possible in Florida.

"In August 2023, residents of Juneau, Alaska, watched as the Mendenhall River swelled to historic levels in a matter of hours. The rushing water undercut the riverbank and swallowed whole stands of trees and multiple buildings. The source for the flood was not heavy rainfall – it was a small glacial lake located in a side valley next to the Mendenhall Glacier. Glacier-dammed lakes like this are abundant in Alaska. They form when a side valley loses its ice faster than the main valley, leaving an ice-free basin that can fill with water. These lakes may remain stable for years, but often they reach a tipping point, when high water pressure opens a channel underneath the glacier. The rapid and catastrophic drainage of lake water that follows is called a glacial lake outburst flood, or GLOF for short. The flood waters race downstream over hours or days and often hit unexpectedly."

See more from The Conversation HERE:

"Colorado, snow is headed in your direction. Meteorologist Chris Tomer predicts that the "first strong cold front" of fall is barrelling towards the Centennial State, with the snowy fruits of this storm coming to bear over the next few days. Here's Tomer's prediction for the coming days in Colorado. The arrival of early-season storms like this begs the question: will there be enough snow for resorts in Colorado to open? Honestly, it's unlikely. While Colorado's enduring opening date front runners — Loveland Ski Area, Arapahoe Basin, and Keystone Resort — are known for firing up the bull wheels in October, it's still unclear if this storm will provide enough precip to tilt the scales in early-season-skiing's favor. Currently, Loveland, A-Basin, and Keystone are mostly snowless, meaning they would need to get dumped on to suddenly open this week."

"East Coasters, the time has come: it's officially started snowing at a New York ski resort. Yesterday, October 8th, Whiteface — a New York-based ski resort with the most vert in the East — reported that it had seen its first snowfall of the season at high altitudes. In yesterday's Facebook post, Whiteface anticipated that more snowfall was on the way. And guess what? Those predictions panned out. Today, October 9th, the New York ski resort showed off its second helping of early-season snowfall. With this storm, Whiteface became one of the first ski resorts in the East to pick up snow. Out West, many resorts have already had multiple storms. Here, the question remains: Will the East see a turnaround in conditions and have a better ski season than last year? Or will the West once again steal the spotlight? Realistically, it's far too early to say. But, some forecasters believe that the arrival of El Niño will bring "huge snow storms" to the East this winter. Make of that what you will — long-range forecasts should always be taken with a grain of salt — and throw a snow dance or two in for good measure if you're so inclined."

See more from Powder HERE: