The polls are showing a dead heat between President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney. But it's conceivable that neither will take office in January. Here's a possible scenario -- for Democrats, a nightmare, and for conservative Republicans, a dream come true.
It's Jan. 20, 2013. Outgoing President Obama sits in the limousine on the way to the Capitol. To his right is incoming acting President Paul Ryan.
What? How did this happen? And what's this business about "acting president"?
It started with the Electoral College. The election was close, as everyone knew it would be. President Obama got 253 electoral votes by carrying the Democratic base -- the District of Columbia and 19 states that had gone for Gore, Kerry and Obama. He also took New Mexico (five votes) and Colorado (nine votes), bringing him to 267 -- heartbreakingly short of the 270 needed for victory. It looked like Mitt Romney had won with 29 states and 271 electoral votes, one more than he needed.
But on Dec. 17, when electors cast their votes, three Republican electors -- one in Texas, Nevada and Iowa -- did what they had told a reporter in September they planned to do: They voted for the candidate to whom their hearts truly belonged: U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. No amount of persuading could get them to back down. The result: Romney, 268 electoral votes; Obama, 267, and Paul, 3. No majority. No president-elect.
Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, if no one gets an electoral vote majority, the House of Representatives chooses the president from among the top three contenders. Each state gets one vote, and election requires a majority of states: 26 votes.
In the House elected in 2010, the GOP held a majority of seats from 33 of the 50 states, the Democrats had just 16, and one, Minnesota, was tied. But in the 2012 election, the GOP lost several seats, even though it kept control of the House. The Democrats gained in Colorado, Montana, Nevada and West Virginia, giving them "control" of 20 states, and also picked up one seat each in Arizona, Arkansas, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, bringing those states to a tie along with Minnesota. So the Republicans now controlled just 24 states.
The new Congress convened in January and officially counted the electoral votes for president and vice president. No presidential candidate had a majority, of course, but the three faithless Republican electors had joined the other 268 in voting for Paul Ryan for vice president, giving him the 271 votes he needed to defeat Joe Biden and become vice president-elect.