Above Average Through Most Of The Week, Including Potentially Record Highs Wednesday

Heading into Monday and the start of a new work week in the Twin Cities, we're expecting partly cloudy skies to a mix of sun and clouds with morning lows in the low to mid-20s and highs in the mid to upper 30s.

A mix of sun and clouds are expected across much of the state on Monday with highs generally in the 30s. These highs will be up to 15 degrees across northern Minnesota, and near average in southern areas.

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As we head through the work week, highs will (for the most part) be above average. Highs will be in the 30s Monday and Tuesday before quickly climbing to the low 50s on Wednesday with a stronger storm system moving into the region, bringing a surge of warmth and moisture. Behind that we'll see temperatures fall back to around average to end the week.

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And those highs could be near records on Wednesday in the Twin Cities. Our record in the Twin Cities on Wednesday is 51F set in 2014, and the current forecast high of 52F would just beat that. Of course, we have that snow pack in place, and with some low-level stratus as well we will have to see just how high those temperatures can climb. Records are definitely more likely toward Rochester, Mason City, and Madision.

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Another shot of some snow looks to move through the state as we head into Friday. It is a bit early to determine how much could fall or where he heaviest will be, but models over the past days have been showing a few inches accumulating somewhere across central Minnesota.

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After our snowstorm to end last work week, MSP Airport is now up to 15.5" of snow, almost 4" above average. However, if you head northward, areas like St. Cloud, Duluth, and International Falls are below average for the year so far.

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You may not like snow, but trust me when I tell you Minnesota got the better end of Friday's storm.

While we plowed and shoveled, residents of the Mid South huddled in basements as a deadly swarm of tornadoes roared overhead. Meteorologists have been shocked by the ferocity of the tornado outbreak, possibly the deadliest since an April, 2011 "Super Outbreak" left 324 dead.

38+ tornadoes on December 10? That's as unusual as a Category 3 hurricane hitting in January - or wildfires in February. Surreal.

Unlike hurricanes and heat, a direct link to climate change is still unclear. "Tornado Alley" appears to be shifting south/east over time and warmer winters may increase the odds of winter twisters. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s before the tornadoes struck; one stayed on the ground for 220 miles.

Our weather is mercifully quiet: a little rain and low 50s Wednesday before a return of colder weather heading into Christmas.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Sunny and quiet. Wake up 22. High 35. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 3-8 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny and milder. Wake up 28. High 39. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Unseasonably mild. Rain PM hours. Wake up 34. High 54. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Light snow, few inches up north? Wake up 19. High 30. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Some sun, few goosebumps. Wake up 4. High 15. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Snow potential. More north of MSP. Wake up 8. High 28. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 13th

*Day With Least Sunlight: December 21st (8 hours, 46 minutes, and 11 seconds)
*Latest Sunrises Before We Start Gaining Morning Light: 7:51 AM between December 30th and January 5th
*Earliest Sunsets Of The Year: 4:31 PM between December 5th and December 14th

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This Day in Weather History
December 13th

1995: A low pressure system moved across northern Minnesota, depositing a band of five to seven inch snowfall along a line from around Wheaton to north of St. Cloud and around Rush City. Alexandria received seven inches of snow. Meanwhile, in southern Minnesota, one to four inches of snow fell, along with one-quarter to one-half inch of freezing rain, which forced some school closures.

1821: An extended cold snap begins at Ft. Snelling. Highs were below zero for all but one day of a 19-day stretch.

The highest concentration of precipitation on Monday will be out west with moisture continuing to stream into the region causing rain and higher elevation snow. A few showers will be possible in portions of the Deep South, with a few storms in Florida.

The heaviest rain and snow through Tuesday will be out west, with several feet of snow and high amounts of rain in some locations.

Here's a closer look at the additional rain and snow expected out west from Sunday through Tuesday. Some of the heaviest snow will be in the Sierra, with several feet expected. Areas like the Bay Area could see at least 1-3" of rain.

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How Friday night's rare and deadly December tornado outbreak unfolded

Study Shows Critical Need to Reduce Use of Road Salt in Winter, Suggests Best Practices

More from The University of Toledo: "Across the U.S., road crews dump around 25 million metric tons of sodium chloride — much like table salt — to unfreeze roads each year and make them safe for travel. Usage varies by state, but the amount of salt applied to icy roads annually in some regions can vary between approximately 3 and 18 pounds of salt per square meter, which is only about the size of a small kitchen table. As the use of deicing salts has tripled over the past 45 years, salt concentrations are increasing dramatically in streams, rivers, lakes and other sources of freshwater."

Fleeing Global Warming? 'Climate Havens' Aren't Ready Yet

More from Grist: "Forget the palm trees and warm ocean breeze. The upper Midwest could soon be the most sought-after living destination in the United States. The curb appeal of the Great Lakes region is that it appears to be a relatively safe place to ride out the wild weather of the future. It's far from the storm-battered Eastern seaboard and buffered from the West's wildfires and drought, with some of the largest sources of fresh water in the world. The Great Lakes help temper the bitter winds of winter and cool the muggy summer. And rising temperatures are beginning to take some of the bite off that winter weather: Michigan, in fact, is turning into wine country, with vineyards growing warm-weather grapes like pinot noir and cabernet sauvignon."

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- D.J. Kayser