A very optimistic Vikings projection (and a splash of cold water)

We have a theme for this Vikings season: volatility.

As discussed a number of times on both the Access Vikings and Daily Delivery podcasts — and written about Sunday by our Ben Goessling — this year has a feast-of-famine, boom-or-bust feel to it. I'm on record as saying this team could win as few as five or as many as 12 games in this 17-game year.

That can lead to wildly different projections for how the year will play out, with those choosing either extreme having the potential to look like geniuses or fools. Then again, the Vikings' wagering over-under win total is 8.5 — suggesting something right in the middle is the most likely outcome.

With that in mind, I read two items over at ESPN with interest.

The first was probably the most optimistic outlook I've seen for the Vikings, written by Mike Clay.

He projects the Vikings' revamped defense to allow the third-fewest points in the NFL, leading the way for a team that he has No. 7 overall in his rankings to start the year. Clay writes:

Mike Zimmer is known for elite defense and, following a rough 2020, he now has the team on paper to get back to that in 2021.

Indeed, to me that's the blueprint for how this team can with 10-12 games this season: lean into a veteran defense, hope that 90% of your best players stay healthy and ride the winning formula from 2015 and 2017.

It's also pretty optimistic.

For a dose of realism: Visit ESPN's Football Power Index, which — like Vegas — has the Vikings tabbed for 8.5 wins based on 20,000 simulations of the season. In one version of the projections, written up for the site, the Vikings finished 8-9 and narrowly missed a playoff berth after a closing 20-16 loss to the Bears that included a Kirk Cousins pick-six.

That wouldn't surprise me. A 12-5 year wouldn't stun me, nor would 5-12. And in five days, we will see how it starts to play out.