EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 107 possible.

WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Thursday evening.

IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heat should start waning by Thursday, but the cumulative effect from multiple days of excessive heat may lower one`s tolerance to handle it. The extreme heat may also lead to buckling roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation. Be prepared to drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

See more from the National Weather Service La Crosse, WI

Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall in the Baha California Peninsula around midday Sunday and moved into southern California later in the day. Areas of heavy rain and gusty winds were the main concerns as Hilary lifted north through the region. At one point, Hilary was a major category 4 with sustained winds of 145mph early Friday morning!

Hilary will continue to weaken as it drifts north into the Western US. Areas of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will still be possible with flooding and mudslides possible as the remnants pass through the region.

Here's the simulated radar from early AM Monday to AM Tuesday as the remnants of Hilary drift north through the region. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will still be the primary threats, with isolated flash flooding events possible.

Areas of heavy rainfall will begin to wind down through the region early this week with the heaviest rains occurring across southern California and into Nevada.

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Tropical Storm Franklin developing in the Caribbean on Sunday, which is now the 6th named storm of the 2023 season. Tropical Alerts have been issued for parts of Haiti and the Dominican in advance of Franklin as it lifts north.

Here's the forecast for Franklin, which shows the storm drifting over Haiti and the Dominican with gusty winds and heavy rainfall midweek before lifting northeast into the Central Atlantic later in the week as a hurricane.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Emily developed in the Central Atlantic on Sunday, which becomes the 5th named storm the 2023 season. The good news is that this storm should remain over open waters and will not be an issue for anyone closer to home.

Here's the forecast track for Emily. According to NOAA's NHC, this storm will slowly drift north through the week ahead.

Our recent uptick in the Atlantic tropical activity coincides with climatology, which suggests that things ramp up pretty quickly during the 2nd half of August and into September. This is when the sea surface temperatures are typically the warmest in the Atlantic Basin. Note that the actual peak of the season is on September 10th, which is less than 3 weeks away. With that being said, the next several weeks could be pretty active in the Tropics.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it is going to be another very hot week with temperatures warming into the 90s a few days and possibly up to 100F midweek. Good grief! Note that our hottest temperature at the MSP Airport was 96F on July 27th, so we could certainly see our hottest day of the year this upcoming week.

Interestingly, it's pretty rare to see a 100F day in August. Since records started back in 1872, there have only been (7) 100F degree days, with the most recent happening back in 1988, which is 35 years ago.

The hottest day of 2023 (so far) was Thursday, July 27th with a high of 96F and heat index values peaking around 105F to 110F. Uffda! Through Saturday, August 19th, there had been (24) 90F days this year. It looks like we'll add a few more to that list this week.

It has also been a hot summer with readings running well above average since June 1st and good enough for the 11th hottest Meteorological Summer on record so far (through August 19th). Note that 2021 was the 2rd hottest and 2022 was the 17th hottest From June 1st to August 19th. With several hot days in the forecast, we're likely to see this summer jump up a few spots this week. Stay tuned...

It has been very dry across much of the region so far this summer with only 5.79" of rain falling at the MSP Airport since June 1st. Interestingly, we're still -5.63" below average this summer, even with the +1.00" that fell in the metro on Sunday, August 13th. For reference, the driest on record was only 1.65" set in 1894. Interestingly, the summers of 2021 and 2022 were even drier.

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to about mid May, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

After a decent, steady, soaking rain across parts of the state last weekend, there was a slight improvement in drought across parts of the state. Most categories dropped slightly, but there are still a few areas across southeastern Minnesota, that are in an Extreme Drought (in red). The last time that parts of Minnesota were in an Extreme Drought was back in mid December, nearly 8 months ago.

Thanks to some hot weather over the next several days, it appears that we'll stay mostly dry across much of the state through the week ahead. There could be a few areas of showers and storms across the northern part of the state with the heaviest of 0.50" or more along the international border.

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, August 21st will still be quite warm, but not as hot as it was on Saturday. Highs will be nearly 10F cooler than there were on Saturday. However, dewpoints will be increasing through the day and become quite sticky later in the afternoon as readings approach the tropical mark of 70F once again. Skies will be a bit hazy through much of the day with some clearing late.

Temps on Monday will be pretty interesting across the state depending on where you are. If you're close to the Canadian border, readings will only warm into the 60s, which will be nearly -10F below average with areas of rain and thunder. Farther south, it'll be hot and sticky as temps warm into the 90s, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average.

Temperatures in Minneapolis through the week ahead will get hot once again with readings nearly +15F to +20F above average Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is an outside chance that we hit 100F on Wednesday, which would only be the 8th time we've seen 100s at MSP during the month of August.

With highs warming into the mid/upper 90s (and possibly 100F) this week, we could be near record warmth! We'll be within striking distance on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, with the most likely day of exceeding the record being Wednesday.

The 5 day dewpoint and heat index forecast for Minneapolis looks quite a bit hotter and stickier as we approach mid week once again. Dewpoints will likely climb and hover in the mid/upper 60s and lower 70s late Monday through Thursday. With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s mid week, we'll likely see heat index values approaching the 100F mark once again.

After a much nicer and more comfortable Sunday, it'll get hot again with highs back in the mid/upper 90s and feels like temps back to around 100F or better. The end of the week will get a little better with readings back in the mid 80s, but it'll be even better by the weekend with highs warming into the 70s.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation with the exception of the Northeast, where temps will remain cooler than average into the end of August and into early September.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Western US looks a little more unsettled across the Western US. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in across the Central and Southern US.

Stuff I never thought I'd see: tornado chasers searching for twisters in California as "Hilary" sloshed overhead. A heat index of 134F in Lawrence, Kansas yesterday - only 475 miles south/southwest of MSP. All residents of a single Canadian province (Northwest Territories) evacuated due to wildfires. Smoke shelters opening up in Spokane, Washington, so locals could breathe clean air. Symptoms of a warming climate are harder to miss in the summer, and never more so than 2023.

Enjoy a cool breeze this morning because a well-advertised "heat spike" is on the way, a sudden surge in temperature. After reasonable 80s today I see upper 90s Tuesday and 100F Wednesday. Expect a heat index both afternoons from 105 to 110F. Stupid Hot.

According to the Twin Cities National Weather Service, MSP hasn't recorded a 100-degree high in August since 1988 (35 years). It's happened 7 times since 1873.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and warm. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 86.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and mild. Winds: ESE 10-15. Low: 74.

TUESDAY: Heat dome arrives. Feels like 105+. Winds: SE 10-20. High 97.

WEDNESDAY: Hottest August day in 35 years? Winds: SW 8-13. Wake-up: 78. High: 100.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sun, slight relief. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 72. High 92.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, tolerable humidity. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 64. High: 81.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, very nice. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 80.

August 21st

1918: Minnesota's third deadliest tornado strikes Tyler and destroys the downtown area, leaving 36 dead.

1886: High winds hit Northfield with winds blowing at 60 mph for 20 minutes. Peak gusts up to 75-80 mph are recorded.

August 21st

Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1947)

Average Low: 62F (Record: 44F set in 2004)

Record Rainfall: 3.64" set in 1924

Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise: 6:2am

Sunset: 8:10pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 47 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 52 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 50 Minutes

See more from Space.com HERE:

Temperatures on Monday will be extremely hot across the Central US with highs running nearly +5F to +15F above average. Widespread records will be found across the Central and Southern Plains and also down across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile lingering heavy rains and gusty winds will impact parts of the Western US, where the remnants of Hilary will drift through.

The weather outlook on Monday will feature lingering showers and storms the Western US, where remnants of Hurricane Hilary will drift through. Meanwhile, the Central US will remain hot and dry with record heat.

The weather outlook through Tuesday shows widespread showers and storms across the Western US, where the remnants of Hurricane Hilary will be found. Not much will happen across the Central US, where temperatures will be too hot for any substantial rain anytime soon.

The extended precipitation outlook looks pretty interesting over the next 7 days. This is a pretty typical setup for what is known as a "Ring of Fire", where areas of heavy rainfall develop on the outer periphery of the dome of extreme heat in the Central US.

See more from Outside Online HERE:

"A record heat wave in the Pacific Northwest has prompted fire managers to bump the national preparedness level up a notch, from three to four on a five point scale. More than two dozen large fires are now burning in the region, many sparked by dry thunderstorms. At the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, federal fire managers monitor giant screens in a NASA like control room, as they deploy air tankers, hot shot crews and other resources around the West right now. Meagan Conry, the federal Bureau of Land Management's assistant deputy director for fire and aviation, tracks fires on live cameras in the Northwest. She says the area has become vulnerable to increased fire activity because of, "above average temperatures, dry conditions, and some expectations for gusty winds over the next few days."

See more from NPR HERE:

"1996's Twister was a big, big blockbuster about big storms that cause big things to fall out of the sky and wreak havoc on the ground below. It could also never be made today according to its director Jan de Bont—but not for any of the reasons people usually think when they use that phrase. "When things fell from the sky, there were real things falling from a helicopter," the director told Inverse in a recent interview. "If you film a car escaping a tornado in a hail storm, it was real ice that came at us. It's a movie that cannot be remade… That would never, ever happen again." Hmm... okay. We have some things to say. First of all, one of the things that fell out of the sky was a cow. Literally a whole ass, still-mooing bovine. It's pretty hard to believe that poor Bessie was just launched out of a helicopter for the bit, even if she was just a model. (Please do yourself a favor and click play on this clip, even if you've seen this movie recently. Helen Hunt's deadpan "cow" and Jami Gertz's "I gotta go, we got cows" are both line deliveries for the ages.)"

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