A Vaguely White Christmas, But More Significant Snow Coming Next Week

Finding Christmas Joy In a Viral Blizzard

We are having a COVID Christmas this year. A family member visiting for the holidays tested positive, has mild symptoms, and now we are isolating, so as not to potentially infect other members of our family, including our 22-month-old grandson. Like so many families we are making the best of troubling events beyond our control.

Expect low 40s and a few rain showers today before we cool off Christmas. Pieces of a massive west coast storm will break off and approach Minnesota in the coming days - by the end of next week I suspect snow lovers will be pleased, with enough bitter air in place to prevent melting anytime soon.

I see a Christmas Day coating, but a more significant system Sunday night may drop a few inches on the metro, with nearly a foot possible over parts of central Minnesota. The approach of the first subzero air of the season sparks a few inches Tuesday and models hint at a New Year's Day snowstorm. Of course.

We are hunkering down, but not even COVID can diminish the hope, joy and promise of Christmas 2021.

National Snow Cover. According to NOAA 26.4% of the lower 48 states have snow on the ground. Stating the obvious, most of the USA will not see a white Christmas this year.

Christmas Even Rain Showers. Models push a few light rain showers or sprinkles across the state, with the best chance coming this morning. If skies brighten we should see low 40s by mid afternoon.

Plowable Snowfall Sunday Night? ECMWF (above) has ben fairly consistent, printing out a few inches of snow for the metro, with over 10" for parts of central and western Minnesota by Monday morning. We shall see, but I predict next week will be better for snow lovers.

Old Man Winter Bares His Fangs Next Week. We will pay for low 40s today, as the weather pendulum swings in the other (much colder) direction next week with a few subzero nights possible in less than a week. We're due for a taste of polar air. The best chance of accumulating snow: Sunday night, again Tuesday of next week, with a small chance of a snowstorm on New Year's Day.

Nippy Last Week of December. Much of America will simmer well above average next week, especially southeastern states, but central and western states will see a harsh return to colder than normal temperatures, according to NOAA CPC.

Slight Moderation Two Weeks Out? Right now I see no imminent signs of a prolonged arctic outbreak - not yet. NOAA's GFS model shows a west to southwest flow, which might result in a January thaw within 2 weeks. Confidence level: low.

What Science Says About Tragic Early December Tornado Outbreak. The Union of Concerned Scientists weighs in with what we know - and what we don't know: "...Researcher Michael Tippett and colleagues found a trend toward more tornadoes in the most extreme tornado outbreaks since the 1970s with an associated trend for less tornado activity during periods in between tornado outbreaks. A tornado outbreak is when six or more EF-1 or stronger tornadoes occur in close succession. Researcher Christopher Furhmann and colleagues point to both the track length of tornadoes and EF scale strength as key factors that determine the level of danger tornado outbreaks present to people. These researchers point out that most tornado outbreaks occur with larger weather patterns that last over a significant chunk of a 24-hour period. That means forecasters have a greater chance to identify tornado risks and issue advanced weather warnings to help communities find safe places earlier..."

Kentucky Tornadoes From the Air. This is a vantage point you rarely get with tornadoes. Check out the YouTube clip from Now This: "This aerial footage shows just how powerful the tornadoes were that hit Kentucky and other parts of the southeastern U.S. last weekend, resulting in at least 88 deaths. The footage was taken by an airplane pilot from approx 45,000 ft in the air and a distance of about 120 miles away."

Cold, Heat, Fires, Hurricanes and Tornadoes: The Year in Weather Disasters. The Washington Post has a very good, interactive recap of all the atmospheric craziness: "Vicious wind and tornadoes put a deadly exclamation point on the end of an extraordinary year for extreme weather in the United States. Earlier in 2021, Texas froze and Seattle roasted. Parts of California flooded, burned, then flooded again. A hurricane that slammed Louisiana was so waterlogged that its remnants inundated New York City. A blizzard hit Hawaii. The weather was wilder than usual this year, and the reasons vary, climate experts say. Crazy cold snap? Giant hail? December tornadoes? Those happen now and then on a planet with natural variations in weather patterns..."

How the Building Industry Blocked Better Tornado Safeguards. The New York Times has analysis: "...While experts say the technology and design standards exist to better protect people and buildings from tornadoes, attempts to incorporate those designs into building codes have repeatedly been blocked or curtailed by the building industry, according to public documents and people involved in efforts to tighten the model codes. "It really does kind of boil down to money," said Jason Thompson, vice president of engineering at the National Concrete Masonry Association and one of the proponents of the 2012 change. "There's just different groups out there that want to keep the cost of construction as low as possible." The stakes are growing..."

The Canadian Town That Burnt Down in a Day. BBC News has an eye-opening YouTube report: "In 2021, Canada had a record heatwave which scientists say was impossible without climate change. Wildfires engulfed Patrick Michell's hometown of Lytton after it reached 49.5°C. Now he and his community must plan for an uncertain future. Meanwhile, an environmental protest against the logging industry becomes the largest act of civil disobedience Canada's ever seen. BBC Life at 50C looks at extreme heat around the world."

ECMWF News Highlights. ECMWF has a recap of 2021; here's the intro: "ECMWF news highlights in 2021 include two upgrades of our Integrated Forecasting System that improved forecasts; projects and workshops to drive forward weather science; and new developments regarding the EU-funded Copernicus services implemented by ECMWF. An upgrade of ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) to Cycle 47r2 implemented on 11 May introduced single precision for high-resolution and ensemble forecasts (HRES and ENS) and increased the vertical ensemble resolution..."

2" snow on the ground at MSP International Thursday morning.

39 F. Twin Cities high temperature yesterday.

26 F. average high on December 23.

46 F. MSP high on December 23, 2020.

December 24, 1996: Strong winds of 20 to 30 mph, combined with over a foot of new snowfall, result in restricted visibilities from blowing snow. As a result, several highways closed, including highway 19 west of Redwood Falls, highways 7 and 40 at Madison, and highways 67 and 23 out of Granite Falls.

CHRISTMAS EVE: Mild with a rain shower or two. High: 43

CHRISTMAS DAY: Colder, coating of light snow possible. Winds: N 8-13. Wake-up: 18. High: 22

SUNDAY: Heavier snow late PM. Few inches? Winds: E 10-20. Wake-up: 11. High: 28

MONDAY: Windy and colder with some sun. Winds: W 15-35. Wake-up: 18. High: 21

TUESDAY: More snow, could be plowable. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 5. High: 23

THURSDAY: Sunny and numb. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: -9. High: 10

Climate Stories...

Climate Changes is Shrinking the Odds of a White Christmas, This Year Included. Capital Weather Gang has an analysis of trends; here's a clip: "...How have white Christmas chances changed in our nation's cities in the past decade? We analyzed NOAA's white Christmas data in the 25 biggest cities, from Seattle to D.C., and, unsurprisingly, found declines in most of them:

Did Climate Change Make That Freak Weather Even Worse? A post at WIRED.com (paywall) looks at forensic examinations of weather extremes and the link to a warming climate: "...Today, the results of attribution studies regularly make headlines, such as when scientists at WWA, who work to get their conclusions out in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event, reported that the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave would have been nearly impossible without the influence of climate change. Their studies have also found that climate change made a whole host of extreme events more likely—like this summer's flooding in Germany, the devastating 2019-2020 Australian bushfires, and twoseparate 2019 summer heatwaves in Europe. (Some events, however, remain outside of the scope of extreme event attributions—tornadoes, for example, remain a "black box," according to Swain...")

Global Warming Can Set the Stage for Deadly Tornadoes. Climate signals are interacting with natural weather variability to create a meteorological puzzle, as reported by Inside Climate News: "...Scientists also know more about how a cyclical cooling phase of the Pacific Ocean called La Niña drives more frequent tornado outbreaks. Now it's time to put that all together in the latest climate system models that can analyze all that information with more accurate results, he said. The recent study he co-authored with Lepore suggests that increases in conditions favorable to breeding severe storms and tornadoes are between 5 and 20 percent for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, "depending on exactly where you are in the world," he said. "What little confidence we have is toward the frequency side..."