A Touch of Fall in the Air This Week

today is the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Hurricane Lee reached category 5 strength with peak winds of 165mph early Friday morning. This storm will make a close encounter with Bermuda next weekend as a potential hurricane. Closer to home, another dry stretch settles in with early October-like temps through midweek. Check the blogs for more details. -Todd Nelson

September 10, 2023 at 2:30AM

September 10th: Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Typical Tracks and Points of Origin
(September 11th - 20th)

Here's a map of all the tropical cyclone points of origin and their tracks from September 11th to the 20th from 1851 to 2015. As you can see, it has historically been a very active time period with tropical systems developing just about anywhere in the basin.

Tropical Cyclone Points of Origin and Tracks: September 11th-20th (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic

Here's a look at Hurricane Lee from Saturday, which was still a major storm with sustained winds exceeding 110mph. At one point early Friday morning, Lee was a major category 5 storm with sustained winds of 165mph and a central pressure down to 924mb.

Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic From Saturday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Lee

According to NOAA's NHC, the track for Lee keeps it as a major hurricane through most of next week as it steers north and east of any major land masses in the Caribbean and the western Atlantic. However, we'll have to keep a close eye on Bermuda as Lee approaches the island next weekend. Stay tuned...

Tracking Lee (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

6th Most 90F Days on Record at MSP

It has been a hot summer with (32) days with highs at 90F degrees or warmer. This is the 6th most number of 90F degree days on record, the most recent being 1988 when there were 44 days.

6th Most 90F Days at MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year

Here's a list of all the 90F degree days that we've seen so far this year. The hottest days, were back to back on August 22nd and 23rd, when the MSP hit 98F and heat index values peaking around 110F to 120F around the metro. We also hit 98F on September 4th, but the dewpoint wasn't has high, so the heat index was an intense. Uffda!

Number of 90F Days So Far This Year (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

Average Number of 90F Days At MSP (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to early June, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Drought continues and expanded from last week with a little more than 1% of the state in an Exceptional drought. Nearly 16% of the state is now in an Extreme drought, while 40% of the state is in a Severe drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities metro. 3 months ago, 72% of the state was considered abnormally dry, with nearly 12% in a moderate drought.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s across the state, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. There may be a few isolated showers developing across the far southeastern part of Minnesota, but much of the state will be dry with more sunshine through the day.

Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday, September 10th will be pretty comfortable with highs only warming into the lower 70s, which will be a little below average for this time of the year. There could be a few isolated showers early, but much of the day will be dry with lingering low clouds. Dewpoints will also be more comfortable through the day as they fall through the lower 50s.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Weather conditions for Minneapolis on Sunday will be drier and quieter than it was on Saturday. Temps will start in the lower 50s in the morning and will warm into the lower 70s in the afternoon. Lingering low clouds will be in place with northerly winds around 10mph to 15mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be a little cooler than average through midweek with temps only warming into the 60s and lower 70s, which will be more October-like and certainly fall-like.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sticky Dewpoints into Early September

The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next several days shows very comfortable and fall-like readings into the lower 50s and even the 40s at times. This means that our overnight lows will be quite a bit cooler through the week ahead.

5 Day Max Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The 7 day extended weather outlook through the 2nd full week of September looks fairly comfortable with highs in the 60s and 70s with mostly dry conditions. It might be a little chilly at times during the morning hours, but the afternoons will be fairly comfortable

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Comfortable Temps Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures over the next several days will be quite a bit nicer with readings generally in the 70s through mid month. A few days may dip into the 60s with overnight lows into the 40s, which will feel a little like October at times.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

The weather outlook in the Midwest through next weekend looks mostly dry through the Midwest. Most of the rainfall will be found across the Southern and Eastern US. Keep an eye on Lee in the Atlantic, which will likely impact eastern Canada next weekend.

Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the Nation. Near normal temps will be in place across the Ohio Valley.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center it'll be a little quieter along the norther tier of the nation with pockets or more active weather across the Southern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Touch of Fall in the Air This Week
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Two weeks from today we welcome the Autumnal Equinox or the official start of Fall in the northern hemisphere. Don't get me wrong, I miss summer, but it's hard to beat the weather at this time of year and today will not disappoint.

A familiar radio voice will kick off the regular Vikings season with a thunderous "Boom" at noon over local airwaves. We're getting reports of moldy cheese and purple envy in western Wisconsin. Skol!

Don't forget about the Twins. First place in the AL Central. First pitch at 1:10pm today at Target Field. Minneapolis will be hopping this afternoon, but a good day to be a Minnesota sports fan!

By the way, today is the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Hurricane Lee reached category 5 strength with peak winds of 165mph early Friday morning. This storm will make a close encounter with Bermuda next weekend as a potential hurricane.

Closer to home, another dry stretch settles in with early October-like temps through midweek.

It won't be long until leaf-peeping season arrives.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Lingering clouds. Cooler. Winds: N 5-10. High: 72.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NNE 5-10. Low: 54.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and comfy. Winds: N 5-10. High: 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Feels like early October. Winds: ENE 5-15. Wake-up: 51. High: 66.

WEDNESDAY: Extra layers needed early. Bright PM. Winds: SSE 10-15. Wake-up: 46. High 69.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day rumble? Winds: SSW 10. Wake-up: 52. High 76.

FRIDAY: More clouds. Passing shower or two. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High 78.

SATURDAY: Isolated showers or storms. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 57. High: 77.

This Day in Weather History

September 10th

2002: A late-season tornado strikes Albertville just after midnight .According to a damage survey conducted by NWS personnel, it touched down on the eastern edge of Cedar Creek Golf Course, then it moved straight east and dissipated in a city park just west of the railroad tracks. It completely tore the roof off of one home. Roofs were partially off a number of other homes, many attached garages collapsed, and a couple of houses were rotated on their foundation. About 20 homes were damaged, nine of which sustained significant damage.

1986: 3 inch hail falls in Watonwan County.

1947: Downpours fall across the Iron Range. Hibbing receives 8.6 inches in three hours.

1931: St Cloud experiences a record high of 106 degrees, and it reaches 104 degrees in Minneapolis.

1910: The shortest growing season on record in Duluth ends, with frost free days from June 14 to September 10 (87 days). Normally the frost-free season is 143 days.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

September 10th

Average High: 75F (Record: 104F set in 1931)

Average Low: 57F (Record: 37F set in 1917)

Record Rainfall: 2.08" set in 1913

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For Sunday, September 10th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

September 10th

Sunrise: 6:45am

Sunset: 7:34pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 48 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 00 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 Hour & 49 Minutes

Moon Phase for September 10th at Midnight

3.8 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For September 10th at Midnight (Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Sunday

Temperatures on Wednesday will still be well above average for much of the nation with widespread likely from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Northeast and also across the Southern US.

National Weather Outlook For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will be unsettled along and east of the Mississippi River Valley, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

National Weather Map For Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Monday looks a little more unsettled across the Southern Plains through the Great Lakes with pockets of heavy rainfall.

National Weather Outlook Through Monday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Central and Southern Plains. There will also be areas of heavy rain across the Northeast, but the Western US will remain quite dry.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"In a charred moonscape, a band of hopeful workers try to save the Joshua tree"

"The Country since leaving the Colorado has been a dry rocky sandy Barren desert." – Jedediah Smith, 1826. Early western explorers who ventured into the Mojave Desert, like Jedediah Smith, often mischaracterized it as a barren landscape, devoid of life. Yet a closer inspection of these sweeping landscapes reveals soil-hugging carpets of springtime flowers, native grasses and fragrant shrubs, alongside the more obvious cacti and succulents. Where the desert lives up to its stereotype is after a wildfire. In the shadow of last month's York Fire in California's Mojave National Preserve, almost nothing is left amid the rocks and sand, except the charred carcasses of Mojave yuccas, Joshua trees, and chollas. The soil is a mottled brown and black, and some plants have been reduced to mere silhouettes of char on the ground."

"Why My Solar Panels Are Modern Magic at Work"

"Three years into living off-grid, I've learned a few lessons about solar the hard way. The motivation to add a solar power system to your home is usually simple: Reduce your power bill or even earn money from your utility. Maybe you add some solar batteries to have a backup in case of an extended outage. But if there's no grid at your location and solar is your primary source of energy, you have a different set of motivations and concerns, including some that force you to look at basic facts in a whole new light. My wife and I purchased a not-quite-finished off-grid home about a month into the COVID-19 lockdown and immediately went to work installing half a dozen solar panels. They were initially connected to — believe it or not — a pair of huge 6-volt golf cart batteries, each weighing 83 pounds and wired together in series to create a 12-volt system, which generates plenty of 120-volt alternating current via a large inverter. It's a modest system for our modest home."

"Extreme heat makes air quality worse–that's bad for health"

"This summer, daytime temperatures topped 100 degrees for a full month in Phoenix. In northwest China, temperatures soared above 125 degrees. Southern Europe withstood waves of 100-plus degree days. Wrapped together, heat waves illustrate a sobering reality: human-driven climate change is making extreme heat worse worldwide. But health-threatening heat isn't the only outcome of record-breaking weather: air pollution spikes when the temperatures rise according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization. "Climate change and air quality cannot be treated separately. They go hand in hand and must be tackled together to break this vicious cycle," WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas said in a press release. The new report, which focuses on 2022, highlights the growing risk of air pollution connected to wildfires. Hotter temperatures increase the risk of large, hot-burning fires, which can pump enormous plumes of smoke into the air. That smoke causes health problems near the fire but also for people thousands of miles downwind."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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