A Few Strong Storms Possible Thursday - Storm Chances & 80s For The Holiday Weekend

A cold front will be sagging southward across the state on Thursday, already through parts of northwestern Minnesota by the early morning hours. Ahead of that front we will watch the threat for some showers and storms as we head throughout the day, some of which could be on the strong side.

Due to the threat of some strong storms during the day across parts of southern Minnesota, a Marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) is in place for Thursday. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with stronger storms.

While the better chance of showers and storms during the day Thursday will be across central and southern Minnesota, we can't rule out a few pop-up afternoon storms up across northern Minnesota. Temperatures will be in the 70s up in northwestern Minnesota in areas already behind the cold front sweeping through the state, but they will reach the 90s in parts of southern Minnesota ahead of it.

In the Twin Cities, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be through the morning and early afternoon hours, where again a few of them could be strong. As we head toward the evening, the best storm chances should be to our south and east. We will only drop to the mid-70s for Thursday morning with highs climbing into the low 90s. Breezy winds are expected, with southwest gusts up to 30 mph possible.

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While we will see quiet weather for the first day of July Friday with highs in the low to mid-80s, things could turn a little unsettled at times as we head into the extended Independence Day weekend. It doesn't look like a complete washout for any of the days, with more just scattered showers and storms at times. Models are very mixed as to when and where the best chances of rain will be each day, so stay tuned for more on that. However, we will have to watch for at least heavy rain with any of the storms into the weekend.

Taking a closer look at the 4th of July on Monday, we will watch those shower and storm chances (which timing and coverage hopefully will become clearer on as we head through the next couple of days). Highs will reach into the mid-80s, but fall back into the 70s by the time fireworks are shot off across the region.

It has been a dry June in many areas of the state, but particularly in the southern third or so. The Twin Cities has only picked up 1.03" of rain through Tuesday in June, over three inches below average. That would place it, month-to-date, at the 6th driest June on record... and if we didn't see anymore (unlikely due to those rain chances Thursday) it would be the 5th overall driest June. It's not only southern Minnesota, though, as Baudette is over 2" below average as well. We did see that heavy rain during the second half of last week across portions of central Minnesota, which is why St. Cloud is almost 2" above average.

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It's also been a warm June, with six days (through Tuesday) reaching at least 90F and one 100F+ day back on the 20th. The average temperature so far has been 3.1F degrees above average - which is good enough to be tied for the 11th warmest start to June on record. With above average temperatures on Wednesday and expected Thursday, we'll for sure end up with a top-20 warmest June on record (if the month ended Tuesday, it would be overall the 16th warmest).

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A Few Strong Storms Possible Today
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Since the beginning of June, it's like the water spigot has been shut off. Even though May did end a little over a half-inch below average at MSP, this month we've only received 1.03" through Tuesday. Month-to-date that makes it the sixth driest start to June on record (3.23" below average) with very little time to make up the deficit. Our year-to-date deficit sits at 1.80", with that value in the below average range since back on June 16.

A few storms (potentially strong) will be around today as a cold front pushes through. Highs will only slide slightly back to the low and mid-80s from Friday into next week.

As we head toward the extended holiday weekend, precipitation chances will start to increase. However, models are mixed as to when the highest chances of rain will be. While nothing looks like a washout, storms could be capable of heavy rain.

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix start to July. Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A spotty storm possible. Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Stray morning storm? Mostly sunny. Wake up 65. High 87. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: A few atmospheric booms for the 4th? Wake up 67. High 87. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind ESE 5-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, slightly cooler. Wake up 66. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 30th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 33 minutes, and 36 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 39 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Latest Sunset?: June 20 - July 2 (9:03 PM)

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1982: Frost hits St. Louis County. Kulger Township falls to 27 degrees and Meadowlands bottoms out at 32.

1871: Extremely large hail falls in Meeker County. Some of the stones are 6 inches in circumference, breaking many windows on the north sides of houses.

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On Thursday, we'll continue to watch an area of low pressure near or just inland across southern Texas, bringing some heavy rain along with it. Heavier rain will also be possible along the rest of the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. A frontal boundary in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes will drive a few showers and storms, some of which could be strong. We will also watch monsoonal moisture driving storms in the Southwest and an area of low pressure near New England bringing morning rain showers.

Some of the heaviest rain through the end of the work week will fall along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, where rainfall amounts of 3"+ will be possible.

U.S. supercomputers for weather and climate forecasts get major bump

More from NOAA: "Today, NOAA inaugurated the nation's newest weather and climate supercomputers with an operational run of the National Blend of Models. The new supercomputers, first announced in February 2020 with a contract award to General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT), provide a significant upgrade to computing capacity, storage space and interconnect speed of the nation's Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System. "Accurate weather and climate predictions are critical to informing public safety, supporting local economies, and addressing the threat of climate change," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. "Through strategic and sustained investments, the U.S. is reclaiming a global top spot in high-performance computing to provide more accurate and timely climate forecasts to the public.""

G-7 Leaders Just Made Success at COP27 Even Harder

More from Bloomberg: "Leaders of the world's richest economies spent the last three days wrangling over how to balance the need for new energy supplies and their existing emissions pledges. In the end, they reached a compromise that shows just how much Russia's war in Ukraine is causing climate action to come to a standstill. ... At the summit in the Bavarian Alps, Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who holds the rotating G-7 presidency, wanted other countries to back publicly supported investment in the gas sector as a necessary "temporary response to the current energy crisis." Such a move would mark a u-turn for countries, after ministers agreed only last month to halt the financing of overseas fossil-fuel projects by the end of this year."

Space Tourism Poses a Significant 'Risk to the Climate'

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser