A Few Strong Storms Possible Saturday Afternoon - Warming Up Into Next Week

The latest Drought Monitor was released on Thursday, and the big story in this week's update was the introduction of three small areas of D3 (of 4) Extreme Drought, totaling 1.49% of the state. These three areas were centered around St. Cloud, the north metro (Andover and Ham Lake areas), and Rochester. We also saw new pockets of D2 Severe Drought in western and northern Minnesota, with an expansion of the area that was in place in eastern Minnesota.

Some slight improvement did occur over the past week in south-central Minnesota - otherwise, we only saw the drought stay steady or worsen. Note that this does NOT include the rain that fell Wednesday evening across the region - that'll factor into next week's Drought Monitor.

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A few scattered showers and storms are possible late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours which could be strong. Patchy fog is expected to start the day off in the mid-60s with otherwise mainly sunny skies, but clouds will be more prevalent in the afternoon with that storm chance as highs climb into the low 80s.

A few of the storms across southern and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin could be on the strong side Saturday afternoon and evening, with a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/5) in place. Hail and wind are the primary threats.

An upper-level system is passing through the region on Saturday, bringing the potential of some showers and thunderstorms across much of the state. However, rainfall totals will generally be under a quarter inch. Highs range from around 70F along the North Shore to the 80s across much of the state.

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Monday: The first 90F degree day of an expected stretch of 90s is expected under mainly sunny skies.

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One word describes the weather for next week: sweltering! While we'll start the week off in the low 90s, mid to upper 90s are expected in the metro as we head into the Wednesday - Friday timeframe. The record for Tuesday is 99F, 100F for Wednesday, and 104F for Thursday. 90s continue into next weekend, but it'll be at least closer to 90F than 100F. If this forecast - exactly as it is above - came true, it would be a stretch of 7 straight 90F+ days, tying for the 16th longest stretch of 90F+ days at MSP, and bring us up to 22 days of 90F+ weather so far this year.

The Wednesday and Thursday timeframe appears to be the warmest days of the stretch next week, with mid to upper 90s across central and southern Minnesota.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows a heat bubble across the central United States as we head through the middle and end of next week, leading to our hot temperatures.

Hottest Week of Summer Next Week?
By Paul Douglas

I just counted 4 separate "heat domes" over the Northern Hemisphere. Hot weather misery has gone global this year. Although media often fixates on daytime high temperatures, it's consecutive nights warmer than 80F that result in the most heat-related medical emergencies. If you can't find any relief at night and perspiration no longer cools your body, that is when real problems can set in.

NOAA counts 1800+ record highs this month nationwide, but sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are off the scale too. Dr. Brian McNoldy at the University of Miami says the warmth is 4 standard deviations above the 1991-2020 mean, with a 1 in 26,300 chance of happening. But here we are.

A clipper-like system may ignite a few T-storms later today, and next week may be the hottest of the summer for Minnesota with a string of 90s. Models hint at upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday with triple-digit heat for parts of southern Minnesota.

More smoke is spilling southward out of Canada, so expect hazy-blue skies.

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: Some sun, PM T-storms. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Hazy, smoky sunshine. Wake up 64. High 88. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

MONDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 68. High 91. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny, hot and sweaty. Wake up 70. High 95. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Heat peaks. Feels like 105+. Wake up 76. High 98. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 3-8 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny, still sweaty. Wake up 75. High 94. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 3-8 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 22nd

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 3 minutes, and 27 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 58 seconds

This Day in Weather History
July 22nd

1972: Copious amounts of rain fall in parts of Minnesota, with 10.84 inches of rainfall in 24 hours at Ft. Ripley. 14 inches of rain is measured at a farm in Morrison County.

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Dangerously hot weather continues in the Southwest on Saturday. Otherwise, a frontal boundary from the Southeast into New England will spark off some storms. Storms are also possible with a weak system in the Upper Midwest, and a few storms are possible in New Mexico and Arizona.

Some of the heaviest rain through the weekend will be along portions of the Gulf Coast, where at least 3" of rain could fall.

Here's What Physics Tells Us about Barbie's World

More from Scientific American: "The climatic conditions in the Barbie world also remain unknown. Barbie is often seen driving in her pink convertible with suspiciously perfect hair. Is the Barbie world a world without wind? Wind is caused because air over land absorbs heat from the sun differently than that above water, causing motion. What would this suggest about the air on Barbie's world—that it absorbs heat evenly no matter where it is or has a constant density? Then there is the Barbie Dreamhouse, a replica of which exists in Malibu, Calif. The Dreamhouse in Barbie's world doesn't seem to be subject to wildfire, which would make sense if there was no wind. But the house isn't earthquake-retrofitted—suggesting the Malibu of the Barbie world has not only different climatic conditions but also wildly different geophysical properties than our own. The majority of Barbie Dreamhouses display curious architectural features. For one, they are foldable, split in half, with open-facing rooms. This seems to further confirm the hypothesis that Barbie lives in a windless world and furthermore one without precipitation. How the water cycle functions in the Barbie world is a strangely neglected topic, as is the psychological impact of long-term living in these panopticon-style homes."

Chicago May Be Slowly Sinking Because of 'Underground Climate Change'

More from the Smithsonian Magazine: "Researchers have discovered that a phenomenon called "underground climate change" is causing the land beneath downtown Chicago to slowly sink. The buildings aren't in any immediate danger of collapsing, and the trend poses no short-term threat to human life. But the study suggests temperature hikes beneath residents' feet could create challenges for the lasting durability of structures in cities across the United States. "Underground climate change is a silent hazard," Alessandro Rotta Loria, an engineer at Northwestern University who led the research, says in a statement. "The ground is deforming as a result of temperature variations, and no existing civil structure or infrastructure is designed to withstand these variations.""

Media reaction: Extreme weather hits world's seven continents in July 2023

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day!

- D.J. Kayser