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A Few Showers Wednesday. Lingering This Weekend

A stalled area of low pressure swirling just north of the Canadian border will send waves of light rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder through our neck of the woods over the next few days. Total rain amounts look "meh". Late month we could see another surge of 90s and I'm not talking Fanny Packs and Scrunchies. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

July 12, 2023 at 3:30AM
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Twin Cities Precipitation Update

Through July 10th, the MSP Airport was nearly -0.90" below normal precipitation already for the month of July. Since January 1st, the Twin Cities is nearly -3.50" below average.

Twin Cities Precipitation Update (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

5th Driest Meteorological Summer on Record

Meteorological Summer started June 1st and since then (through July 10th), the MSP Airport has only seen 1.50" of rain, which is the 5th driest period on record. The driest was only 0.31" set in 1988.

5th Driest Meteorological Summer on Record (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Wednesday to Midday Thursday shows isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms moving across the state on Wednesday. Rainfall amounts should be fairly minimal with isolated light rain chances developing later Thursday once again.

Simulated Radar From AM Wednesday to Midday Thursday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook doesn't appear to show a ton of widespread rainfall. Through next weekend, there could be some 0.25" to 0.50" tallies mainly across the southern part of the state and closer to the MN/IA border.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

It has been an extremely dry stretch of weather across much of the station over the last several weeks. Only a few locations have seen decent pockets of rain, but the drought is expanding. Severe drought conditions have expanded from nearly 5% last week to nearly 8.5% this week, which encompasses parts of the east Metro. Moderate drought increased from 44% last week to 56% this week. We need rain!

US Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly

The map below shows the 60 day precipitation anomaly, which indicates that some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -6.00" below average (in red) since early May. Spots in Southwest Minnesota still have a surplus of almost 1" in spots.

60 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, July 12th will be a little unsettled with spotty showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder here and there. It won't be a washout, but it sure is nice to have rain blobs on the radar once again.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

The hourly temps through the day Wednesday shows temps starting in the lower 60s in the morning and topping out in the upper 70s in the afternoon. Skies will be a little cloudier with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms at times. East to southeasterly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 15mph through the day.

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Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

Temps across the region on Wednesday will warm into the 70s and near 80F across the state, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average for this time of the year. Skies will be a bit unsettled with spotty showers and isolated rumbles of thunder possible.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

Temperatures for the Twin Cities through midweek will be a little cooler than average now with highs dipping to near 80. Readings will get a little closer to average at the end of the week and weekend ahead.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Stickier Dewpoints Linger Early This Week

Dewpoints will get a little sticky over the next few days, but will drop to more comfortable levels over the weekend with dewpoint readings into the 50s. Anything below 60s feels pretty comfortable, so it should feel nicer this weekend.

Daily Dewpoint Forecast For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook for the Twin Cities will be quite a bit cooler than it was on Monday. Highs will only warm into the lower 80s over the next few days with a couple of chances of rain and rumbles.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook

The NBM extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis will be a little cooler over the next few days with a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. As we approach the end of the month, temperatures will get a touch warmer.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across parts of the Central US will be unsettled with daily thunderstorms chances. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, much of the Western US will remain hot and dry. There will also be widely scattered thunderstorms across the Southeastern US with locally heavy rainfall.

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National Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14-day temperature outlook shows warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the nation and especially across the Southern US

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

A Few Showers Wednesday. Lingering This Weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Believe it or not, the Minnesota State Fair is only 43 days away. On Tuesday, the highly anticipated new fair foods were released and they certainly didn't disappoint. Nothing sounds more Minnesotan than a crispy lutefisk steam bun or a walleye fritter pops. If that's not enough, you can wash it down with a "Kind of a big dill" pickle lemonade. Now that sounds refreshing...?

The summer slide continues here in the land of 10,000 weather disappointments. We've lost nearly 20 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice on June 21st and we'll lose another 25 minutes by the end of July. By the way, the sunsets now before 9:00pm, but early risers will still enjoy sunrises before 6:00am through early August.

A stalled area of low pressure swirling just north of the Canadian border will send waves of light rain showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder through our neck of the woods over the next few days. Total rain amounts look "meh". Late month we could see another surge of 90s and I'm not talking Fanny Packs and Scrunchies.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Isolated t-showers. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 80.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Chance of showers. Winds: SE 5-10. Low: 62.

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THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Stray t-shower. Winds: W 7-12. High 84.

FRIDAY: Unsettled skies. Some rain & rumbles. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High 84.

SATURDAY: Breezy. Summertime clouds. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up. 63. High: 85.

SUNDAY: A few more clouds. Chance of showers. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.

MONDAY: Passing PM shower possible. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 61. High: 80.

TUESDAY: More sunshine. Getting warmer. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 61. High 84.

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This Day in Weather History

July 12th

1863: Unseasonably cool temperatures are felt across the state. Frost is reported in the Twin Cities area.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

July 12th

Average High: 84F (Record: 106F set in 1936)

Average Low: 66F (Record: 48F set in 1941)

Record Rainfall: 2.93" set in 1912

Record Snowfall: NONE

Twin Cities Almanac For July 12th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

July 12th

Sunrise: 5:38m

Sunset: 8:58pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 20 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 1 Minute & 25 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 16 minutes

Moon Phase for July 12th at Midnight

3.2 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For July 12th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temperatures on Wednesday across the Southern and Southwestern US will still be very hot, where excessive heat concerns are still in place. Temperatures will warm to well above average levels and into the 100s. Meanwhile, readings from the Midwest will be a little cooler than average.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Wednesday

The weather outlook on Wednesday will feature isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Central US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The weather outlook through Thursday shows isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of the Central US, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Areas of heavy rainfall will also move into parts of the Northeastern US.

National Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook shows heavier precipitation across parts of the Central US. There will also be areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Northeast. Meanwhile, it'll be very dry in the Western US.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Human exposure to wildfires has more than doubled in two decades – who is at risk might surprise you"

"Over the past two decades, a staggering 21.8 million Americans found themselves living within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a large wildfire. Most of those residents would have had to evacuate, and many would have been exposed to smoke and emotional trauma from the fire. Nearly 600,000 of them were directly exposed to the fire, with their homes inside the wildfire perimeter. Those statistics reflect how the number of people directly exposed to wildfires more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, my team's new research shows. But while commentators often blame the rising risk on homebuilders pushing deeper into the wildland areas, we found that the population growth in these high-risk areas explained only a small part of the increase in the number of people who were exposed to wildfires."

"Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns"

"Climate "tipping points," such as the loss of the Amazon rainforest or the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, could come within a human lifetime, scientists have said. Earth's ecosystems may be careering toward collapse much sooner than scientists thought, a new study of our planet's warming climate has warned. According to the research, more than a fifth of the world's potentially catastrophic tipping points — such as the melting of the Arctic permafrost, the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet and the sudden transformation of the Amazon rainforest into savanna — could occur as soon as 2038. In climatology, a "tipping point" is the threshold beyond which a localized climate system, or "tipping element," irreversibly changes. For instance, if the Greenland ice sheet were to collapse, it would also reduce snowfall in the northern part of the island, making large parts of the sheet irretrievable."

""Extreme" heat envelops Phoenix, 42 million people under warnings"

"The globe's historic heat records have received massive media attention, but at a regional level, excessively hot weather is building across the U.S. and is likely to last well over a week. Why it matters: Globally, there have been four straight days of temperature records set or tied since July 3, along with seven straight days of average temperatures breaching 17°C (62.6°F), which previously had not occurred since at least 1940. Potentially historic and deadly heat is already present in the Southwest, including California and Arizona. Parts of Texas and Florida are also mired in extreme heat, and conditions in each of these areas are forecast to worsen. Context: Climate change is causing heat waves to be more likely and intense. Record global ocean temperatures are contributing to heat waves over land, and sending humidity levels soaring in some regions."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

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Todd Nelson

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