A Few Scattered Showers Thursday - Severe Storms Possible Sunday

A mostly quiet Thursday is expected in the Twin Cities, with partly sunny skies and a slight chance of seeing a shower or storm move on through at times. Morning lows only drop into the low 70s with afternoon highs in the mid-80s.

Looking statewide for your July 7th, we will watch the chance of some showers (and maybe a rumble or two of thunder) across portions of northern and southern Minnesota. Rainfall coverage is expected to be only scattered. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s across the state.

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If you're looking to get out this upcoming weekend, parts of it won't be too shabby for the first half of July! Friday and Saturday will feature mainly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid-80s. Dew points will also only be in the 50s those two days, so it won't feel as sticky out. On Sunday we will see the stickiness factor start to creep upward again as dew points reach the mid-60s during the day. We will also watch the threat of some thunderstorms across the state.

A few of those storms on Sunday could be severe, with the equivalent of a Slight Risk of severe weather (threat level 2 of 5) already in place for the potential of at least one round of storms during the day into the overnight hours along and ahead of a cold front. We will keep an eye on this severe threat over the next several days.

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We hit 90F for the eleventh time this year on Tuesday at MSP Airport. We are almost at the average for the entire year now, as the 1991-2020 average is 13. Using the same 30-year average, the most 90F degree days typically occur in July (on average 5 of the 13 days). The eleven days through July 5th is the 13th most to date on record. Last year we had 14 90F degree days through July 5th.

A linear complex of storms moved across South Dakota into northern Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and parts of Iowa on Tuesday, bringing destructive wind gusts and some large hail. This complex has been declared a "derecho". What is a derecho? Here's what the Storm Prediction Center says: "By definition, if the swath of wind damage extends at least 400 miles (about 650 kilometers), is at least 60 miles (about 100 km) wide, includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph (93 km/h) along most of its length, and also includes several, well-separated 75 mph (121 km/h) or greater gusts, the event may be classified as a derecho."

Peak Wind Gusts From The Derecho:

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It Gets Cold Here But At Least We Have Water
By Paul Douglas

Minnesota's biggest asset? Something you can't go without for about 3 days: H2O. Water is Minnesota's biggest advantage, now and going forward. In a warming atmosphere droughts are becoming super-sized, lasting longer, impacting more people.

My lawn is looking crunchy, so remind me not to whine about a few showers later today. Not the soaking we need, but bring on the puddles. A faint puff of drier, Canadian air treats us to 80s, sunshine, and slightly lower dew points Friday and Saturday; probably the nicer day of the weekend (if you like applying sunscreen). Weather models hint at Sunday T-storms, followed by slightly cooler weather next week.

NOAA's GFS model shows a string of 90s the third week of July. Circle your calendars.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Few showers, T-storms. Wake up 70. High 83. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, very nice. Wake up 66. High 87. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sticky again. Few PM T-storms. Wake up 70. High 90. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Windier, isolated T-shower later. Wake up 69. High 86. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, late-day T-showers. Wake up 68. High 85. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Ditto. T-showers bubble up late PM. Wake up 63. High 81. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
July 7th

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 27 minutes, and 6 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 1 minute and 7 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours Of Daylight?: July 24 (14 hours, 58 minutes, 52 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 6 AM?: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 8th (8:29 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
July 7th

1955: A tornado hits Marshall, leaving one dead and 13 injured. Hail causes one million dollars in damage.

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We will continue to watch shower and storm potential across a good portion of the lower 48 on Thursday, particularly from the Northern Rockies down into the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic with a frontal boundary in place. A few record highs could be possible in the Southern Plains.

As we watch more rounds of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Plains to the Ohio Valley around the bubble of heat that has formed in the central and southern Plains, rainfall tallies through Friday evening could top 3" in some locations.

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More from the Washington Post: "A potent weather system near Australia's east coast has unloaded tremendous rainfall in the state of New South Wales for days, putting Sydney on track for its wettest year on record. The torrents have spurred widespread flooding in eastern parts of New South Wales, for the fourth time in less than 18 months. The flooding has triggered more than 100 evacuation orders. Since Friday, Sydney has observed 8.6 inches (220 mm) of rain, while surrounding areas have seen far more — some approaching 28 inches (700 mm) — which is around the amount London sees in an entire year."

Great Salt Lake is 'in trouble' as level falls to lowest on record for second year in a row

More from CNN: "The Great Salt Lake in Utah has dropped to its lowest level on record for the second time in less than a year as a climate change-fueled megadrought tightens its grip in the West. The lake's surface water elevation fell to 4,190 feet on Sunday, according to data from the US Geological Survey — below the previous record set in July 2021 and the lowest it has ever been since it was first measured in the mid-1800s. Before last year, the lake's low record was 4,191.4 feet in October 1963. Utah officials are now calling for "urgent action" to preserve the Great Salt Lake amid its third straight year of decline."

Large Hadron Collider Physicists Discover Three New Exotic Particles

More from Gizmodo: "Physicists at CERN's Large Hadron Collider announced today the discovery of three exotic particles that may help reveal how quarks bind together. One particle is a pentaquark (a hadron made up of five quarks) and the other two are tetraquarks. They were found by the LHCb Collaboration at CERN, which uses a 5,600-ton detector on a portion of the Large Hadron Collider to investigate differences between matter and antimatter. Last year, the collaboration found the first double-charm tetraquark, the longest-lived exotic matter particle yet found. The newly discovered particles add to the collaboration's running list of exotic particles."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser