A down-to-the-wire deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom averted a "hard Brexit." But that doesn't mean it won't be a difficult transition.
On Monday the British government warned of "bumpy moments" beginning Thursday night, when the accord takes effect. Bumpy could be a British understatement describing the four years since voters surprised pollsters and politicians by passing the plebiscite by a narrow margin.
That vote sparked a volatile political period that saw two Tory prime ministers — David Cameron and Theresa May — lose their posts, and for much of the economic and political world to lose some confidence in Britain's ability to protect its economy at home and project its values abroad.
After initial Brexit bumbling, current Prime Minister Boris Johnson deserves credit for delivering on his pledge to "get Brexit done." But it comes at an economic and political cost. Domestically, Brexit may pare Britain's GDP by about 4%. (This matters to Minnesota, too: In 2019, the U.K. was this state's ninth-largest export market, with $556 million in goods sold annually.)
And the GDP losses may not be just on a balance sheet, but on the balance of global power if the United Kingdom disunites internally just as it disunited from the E.U. Seccession stirrings have arisen again in Scotland. While that would require a referendum, Scots did vote to remain in the E.U. in 2016, and polls indicate that sentiment has only strengthened — just as it has across the country.
A recent high of 51% of respondents in a Nov. 12 YouGov poll that they thought Brexit was a wrong decision. Only 38% said it was the right one, which is perhaps a direct reflection of the false promises it was sold on.
Another domestic fault line is Northern Ireland. It's good news that the Good Friday Agreement that tamped down the violent sectarianism known as "The Troubles" won't be jeopardized by a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Such an outcome could have resulted in a deep rift with the incoming Biden administration, which will look to repair relationships with allies alienated by President Donald Trump. Then-candidate Trump blithely called himself "Mr. Brexit" even though the U.K.-E.U. dissolution could weaken Western political unity, too.
President-elect Joe Biden believes that a unified U.S.-European front would be a more effective fulcrum to collectively address challenges like China, whose predatory trade practices and appalling human rights abuses have gone mostly unchecked by a disunited, COVID-distracted world.
