80s Return As We Approach The Weekend
Clouds linger today but sunshine increases late in the week with a warm front that would feel right at home in early August. Models hint at 80-degree-plus readings from Saturday into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may drift into the area Saturday, but no monsoon rain events are in sight.
"September 26 and 27 evenings: Moon visits Saturn. The bright waxing gibbous moon will sweep past the planet Saturn on the evenings of of September 26 and 27. And Saturn is now just one month past its yearly opposition to the sun in our sky. So it's still in a great place to view. You need a telescope to see Saturn's rings, but you can notice with the eye alone that the planet shines with a steady light and golden color. Photos here of Saturn at its best for 2023. September 28 and 29, all night: Super Harvest Moon The instant of September's full moon – the last of four full supermoons of 2023 – falls at 9:57 UTC (4:57 a.m. CDT) on on September 29. For us in North America, the night of September 28-29 is our best for full-moon watching. But – as the closest full moon to the equinox – September 2023's full moon also carries the name Harvest Moon. Read about the Harvest Moon, and/ or watch the video below."
Much Needed Rain Last Weekend
It has been a pretty soggy over the last few days with as much as 4" to 6" of rain falling in some locations. 3.4"0 of rain has fallen at the MSP Airport since Saturday, which is the most 3 day rainfall we've seen since June of 2020!
Wettest 3 Day Period Since June 2020
Here's a list of the wettest 3 days on record at MSP since 2000. Note that this was the 15th wettest such period since then and the wettest 3 day period since June 2020. The wettest was 4.89" in October of 2005.
90 Day Precipitation Anomaly
On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to late June, some locations are still nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink).
Drought Update
Drought continues and expanded across the State. We now have a more expanded Extreme Drought from parts of central Minnesota to southeastern Minnesota. Much of the Twin Cities Metro is now in the Extreme drought as well. Note that nearly 97% of the state is considered to be in drought conditions.
Fall Color Update
Here's a picture from the Cascade River State Park along Minnesota's North Shore. There are lots of color showing up from sugar maples, especially for the inland locations. Peak color isn't far away - book those fall peeping plans now.
Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR, the fall color season is underway and happening fast. Parts of western and northwestern Minnesota are halfway through the season with peak not far behind. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in about 1 month and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...
Typical Peak Fall Color
According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.
Atlantic Update
According to NOAA's NHC, Tropical Storm Philippe was active in the central Atlantic, which is the 12th named storm of the 2023 season. There is another wave of energy southeast of Philippe that has a high likelihood of formation over the next few days. There is also another tropical wave north of the Yucatan that also has a chance of tropical formation. Stay tuned...
Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.
Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday looks a little better with drier skies and a few more peeks of sunshine here and there. Temps will warm into the 60s and low 70s across the state, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, September 27th looks a little better and drier than it has been over the last few days. Clouds will linger across the region through the first half of the day, but will gradually clear later in the day.
Meteograms For Minneapolis
Temps in Minneapolis will start around 60F in the morning and will warm into the mid/upper 60s by the afternoon. Skies will generally be dry with a few more peeks of sun later in the day. Easterly winds will be around 10mph to 15mph
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows high temps topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s through Thursday, which will be pretty close to average for this time of the year. The end of the week and weekend will feature highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for the end of September.
Somewhat Humid Once Again
The max dewpoint forecast for Minneapolis over the next few days shows readings generally hovering in the low/mid 60s, which will feel a little humid for some.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The 7 day extended outlook shows improving weather through the rest of the week. Wednesday will still feature lingering clouds, but the sun returns for the 2nd half of the week along with warmer temps. Highs will warm into the lower 80s this weekend with a chance of isolated showers.
A Slight Temperature Bump Next Week
According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temperatures will be a little closer to average through Thursday. As we approach next weekend, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to near 80F, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for the end of September and early October. We could have a few days in the low/mid 80s through early next week before falling back to near normal temps once again by the first full weekend of October.
Weather Outlook
Weather conditions will slowly improve across the Midwest over the next few days with sunnier and drier skies expected during the 2nd half of the week. A storm system developing in the northwestern part of the nation could send a few more showers our way by the weekend.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Meanwhile, the western US will be cooler than average.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, more active weather will develop across parts of the western half of the nation and could possibly spill into parts of the Central US, including the Midwest.
I Hope You Didn't Pack Away Your Shorts?
By Paul Douglas
Is it ever too warm to rake leaves? Asking for a friend. It still appears October 2023 will at least start out as "Aug-tober", with a streak of daytime highs in the 80s. Wow. Every day I can walk around in shorts and scare the neighbors is a good day.
Last year our weather was influenced by La Nina, a cool phase of the Pacific. Our first flurries (in case anyone asks) came October 13, with a dusting of snow on October 16. It will snow this winter (take it to the bank) but now we're feeling the effects of an El Nino phase of warm water in the Pacific. I expect a few 70s deep into October with 60s in early November. Pond hockey season may come extra-late this year.
Clouds linger today but sunshine increases late in the week with a warm front that would feel right at home in early August. Models hint at 80-degree-plus readings from Saturday into Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may drift into the area Saturday, but no monsoon rain events are in sight.
MSP has picked up a whopping 3.55" rain since Saturday.
Extended Forecast
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy and cool. Winds: E 8-13. High 70.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 58.
THURSDAY: More clouds than sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. High 73.
FRIDAY: Plenty of sun, heating up. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 60. High 80.
SATURDAY: Warm sun, stray T-storm. Winds: SE 15-25. Wake-up: 64. High 83.
SUNDAY: Hello "Aug-tober"! Warm sunshine. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 64. High: 86.
MONDAY: Generous sunshine. Too nice to work. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 85.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, late T-storm? Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 69. High: 82.
This Day in Weather History
September 27th
1942: Minneapolis has a high temperature of only 40 degrees.
1898: A heat wave produces highs of 91 degrees at Beardsley and 90 at Moorhead.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 27th
Average High: 68F (Record: 88F set in 1987)
Average Low: 49F (Record: 29F set in 1942 & 1991)
Record Rainfall: 0.54" set in 1947
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1951
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 27th
Sunrise: 7:06am
Sunset: 7:01pm
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 55 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 6 Seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 Hour & 42 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 27th at Midnight
1.1 Days Before Full "Harvest" Moon -
Friday, Sept. 29 at 4:58 a.m. CDT - Traditionally, this designation goes to the full moon that occurs closest to the Autumnal (Fall) Equinox. In most years, the Harvest Moon comes in September, but about every four or five years it occurs in October (next time this will happen will be in 2025). At the peak of the harvest, farmers can work into the night by the light of this moon. Usually, the full moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night: just 25 to 30 minutes later across the U.S., and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe. Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans, and wild rice — the chief Native American staples — are now ready for gathering."
National High Temps on Wednesday
Temperatures on Wednesday will be warmer than average across the Plains with readings around +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Lingering cool weather will be found in the Eastern US with highs only warming into the 60s, which will be nearly -5F to -15F below average.
National Weather Wednesday
The weather outlook on Wednesday looks unsettled from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast. A few storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. There will also be some heavier precipitation in the Pacific Northwest as a large storm system sits offshore.
National Weather Outlook
The weather outlook through Thursday shows lingering showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with locally heavy pockets of rain. An area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rainfall to Florida as we slide through the week. There will also be some heavier precipitation in the Pacific Northwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavy rainfall across the Pacific Northwest and the High Plains. Decent rain tallies will be possible in the Ohio Valley and across Florida.
Climate Stories
"Northern Lights activity to increase, include auroras farther south due to escalating Sun activity"
"Skygazers in the northern U.S. will want to stay tuned for more aurora light forecasts in the coming years as peak solar activity is expected in 2025 during the Solar Cycle 25. Just last week, solar activity created dancing lights across the Northern Tier. Sights of the Northern Lights were reported in Michigan, Montana and Minnesota, illuminating the sky in shades of green, red and purple. Northern Lights, normally found near the poles, are straying farther south due to increasing space weather. Ahead of the recent aurora lights seen in the U.S., NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder, Colorado, issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch after a coronal mass ejection, or CME, from the Sun was observed with an Earth-directed component."
"New Deal-Style American Climate Corps Puts Young People to Work"
"Following years of pressure from youth advocacy groups, President Biden this week announced the formation of the American Climate Corps. Modeled on the Civilian Conservation Corps of the Great Depression, the Climate Corps will put young people to work on nationwide projects addressing the causes and impacts of the climate disaster. "This past summer we saw record climate disasters, record labor strikes demanding good, meaningful work, and major climate protests led by young people," reads a statement from the Sunrise Movement, a political action organization that has been promoting the concept to politicians for several years. "The American Climate Corps is a response that begins to meet the moment and show young people how their government can work for them."
"With Earth's Warmest Summer and August Now in the Record Books, What Will the Rest of 2023 Bring?"
"Both NOAA and NASA have made it official: Earth sweltered through both the warmest August and most sizzling summer on record. "Not only was last month the warmest August on record by quite a lot, it was also the globe's 45th-consecutive August and the 534th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average," said NOAA Chief Scientist Sarah Kapnick, in a statement. "Global marine heat waves and a growing El Niño are driving additional warming this year, but as long as emissions continue driving a steady march of background warming, we expect further records to be broken in the years to come."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
But next week will end with comfortable 60s and 70s.