A new Brookings Institution study forecasting that the number of Venezuelan refugees will skyrocket to 8 million should trigger alarm bells in the United States and Latin America. It would be the world's biggest mass exodus in recent times - bigger than the Syrian refugee crisis - and could destabilize the region.
The study, by Brookings' Venezuelan-Israeli resident economist Dany Bahar and researcher Douglas Barrios, says its projection includes the 3 million Venezuelans who, according to the United Nations, have already left their country because of its humanitarian crisis. Most of the refugees have fled to Colombia.
The study does not specify the time frame for the projected 8 million figure. I called Bahar and asked him to be more specific.
Are we talking about a decade, or two or three decades? "No, we are talking about a much shorter time frame, of about two to three years," Bahar told me.
The study takes into account Venezuela's estimated 87 percent poverty rate, the steady collapse of the country's economy and growing hyperinflation. It also takes into account world oil-price forecasts and family remittances from Venezuelans who have already left.
Asked whether the estimate of 8 million refugees is the most optimistic or pessimistic scenario in his study, Bahar said that, "It's a scenario based on the most realistic projections. If we erred, we probably erred on the side of caution."
If the study is right, it's hard to foresee how the United States and Latin America could deal with this escalating exodus. Colombia already is asking for international help to deal with its migration crisis but is getting far less than it needs.
When I recently asked Colombian Vice President Marta Lucía Ramirez whether her country could take another 1 million Venezuelan migrants in 2019, as her country's migration office has projected, she told me, "No, we probably wouldn't be able."
