Here are five ways in which the Republican campaign will change as it leaves Florida:
1Fewer debates. Perhaps the worst feature of the post-Florida campaign for Newt Gingrich is the paucity of nationally televised debates. Despite his lackluster performances in the Florida debates, Gingrich has proved that these events can be one of his best tools for sparking excitement about his campaign. The next debate does not happen until Feb. 22, when CNN sponsors a face-off in Arizona. That leaves more than three weeks in which Gingrich will have to find another way to engage Romney nationally.
2National polls. With the big four early-voting states out of the way, national polls could take on more significance. That could be an advantage for Gingrich, who had been ahead of Mitt Romney in polls conducted nationally even as he sank in Florida polls. But Romney has advantages that could affect the national polls. One is the momentum that he is likely to receive from the big victory in Florida.
3Money. The campaign's shift to other states will also test the ability of campaigns to spread their resources across different regions. That will probably benefit Romney, whose ability to solicit money has so far been unmatched. But the impact of that money advantage could be muted in some places that vote in February, such as Maine, where organization and passion are more likely to turn people out for caucuses. Colorado and Minnesota also hold caucuses, and that could benefit Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
4Delegate chase. Thanks to changes in Republican Party rules this year, the upcoming caucuses and primaries will not produce clear victories for the candidate who wins the most votes. Rather, many of the contests will provide each of the hopefuls with a share of the state's convention delegates based on their level of support. That change will provide additional incentive for the candidates to compete even if they remain behind in the polls. And it will begin a new narrative in the national media, which will soon begin publishing running tallies of the delegates each candidate has amassed. That will crest on March 6 -- Super Tuesday -- when 11 states hold contests for a total of 466 delegates.
5Regional differences. The campaign ahead will also be a chance for the candidates to test their appeal in regions that have so far received scant attention from them. Contests in Nevada, Colorado and Arizona in February will introduce the candidates to Western voters who focus more on issues surrounding immigration and gun control. The candidates will campaign in battleground states such as Missouri and Michigan, which are destined to be swing states in the general election. Gingrich may be looking forward to a return to southern states, such as Georgia and Tennessee, that vote on Super Tuesday.
NEW YORK TIMES
